6D·

Constellation Software -Still the Berkshire Hathaway of the tech sector ?

$CSU (-1,19 %)

Hello my dears,

This morning I received a question from dear @THE-ROCK-SAAR

It was about "Buy the Dip" at Constellation Software.

Since I didn't want to write him any nonsense, I got straight to work.

And took a new look at the compounder.

Although I'm invested myself, I haven't done a proper analysis for some time.

Because analysts lowered their price targets due to AI concerns and the founder Mark Leonard had to step down for health reasons. The share now only knows the downward direction.

This is an absolute novelty for the share. Because the compounder has only known the upward direction in recent years.

Despite the fact that the last quarterly figures published by Constellation Software (Q3 2025, as at September 30) showed solid results, with further sales growth and a dividend payment. Previously in Q2 2025, the company also reported rising sales and declared a dividend of USD 1.00 per share.

My dears,

It is always said that the stock market is already pricing in the future. But when I wrote out the key figures, I asked myself.

" is there still so much uncertainty on the part of investors "

because the 77% increase in net profit, with a nice even increase in sales and free cash flow. With an exemplary reduction in debt, despite an increase in CAPEX, no investor can overlook this.

The company continues to expand into the right acquisitions.

Ladies and gentlemen, let's discuss.

Are we retail investors seeing something here earlier than the investors?

In terms of chart technology, I would perhaps wait for a bottom to form first.

(Perhaps our dear friend @TomTurboInvest can give a brief assessment)

But fundamentally I think Constellation Software is still well positioned.

I would be happy to hear your assessment in the comments.

Constellation Software Inc. is a provider of software and services to a select group of markets in the public and private sectors. The company acquires, manages and builds vertical market software companies (VMS) that provide specialized, mission-critical software solutions to meet the specific needs of its customers. The company's principal activity is the development, installation and customization of software and the provision of related professional services and support to customers around the world. The company sells software licenses for on-site use on both a perpetual and fixed-term basis. The company has six business units serving customers in over 100 different markets around the world. The six operating groups include Volaris, Harris, Topicus, Vela, Jonas and the Perseus Group. The company has offices in North America, Europe, Australia, South America and Africa.

Number of employees: 45,000

Performance

15 years
+7.577,33 %

10 years
+525,55 %

5 years
+129,50 %

1 year
-29,36 %

Current year
-25,18 %

What was the performance of the Constellation Software share?

Current year-23,26 %

2024
+26,24 %

2023
+57,02 %

2022
-14,94 %

2021
+43,20 %

2020
+33,52 %

2019
+50,02 %

2018
+7,20 %

2017
+32,27 %

2016
+9,76 %

2015
+40,05 %

1USD in millions

Estimates

year
Turnover
Change in

2025 11.601 15,25 %

2026 13.536 16,68 %

2027 15.821 16,88 %

Year
Ebit
Change in

2025 1.859 27 %

2026 2.134 14,79 %

2027 2.446 14,58 %

Year
Net result
Change in

2025 697,6 -4,58 %

2026 1.236 77,23 %

2027 1.501 21,4 %

Year
Net debt
CAPEX

2025 1.778 64,33

2026 1.311 81,25

2027 467 92,75

Year
Free cash flow
Change in

2025 2.624 23,23 %

2026 3.061 16,68 %

2027 3.657 19,47 %

Year
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit (%)

2025 28,35 % 6,01 %

2026 28,73 % 9,13 %

2027 28,63 % 9,49 %

Year
ROE
Earnings per share

2025 19,38 % 32,74

2026 25,28 % 58,13

2027 22,28 % 70,62

Year
P/E RATIO
PEG

2025 73.3x -14.5x

2026 41.3x 0.5x

2027 34x 1.6x

Lumine Group to acquire Synchronoss Technologies

December 04, 2025 10:26 ET | Source: Constellation Software Inc.

(The Lumine Group is part of Constellation Software Inc. )

Lumine Group wird Synchronoss Technologies übernehmen

Constellation Software's Harris Operating Group enters into agreement to acquire TECVIA Holding GmbH

November 17, 2025 17:06 ET | Source: Constellation Software Inc.

(The Harris Operating Group belongs - just like the Lumine Group - to Constellation Software )

40 Comentarios

ShrimpTheGimp🦐@ShrimpTheGimp

Because of the abbreviation, I wouldn't take them into the depot 🙈 Thanks for the great contribution

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Ver todas las 2 respuestas adicionales

TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

I'll have a look at it in a few days and then comment under this post

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TradingHase@TradingHase

@TomTurboInvest please mark me with 👍🏼

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

@TradingHase Just posted the analysis 😁

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TradingHase@TradingHase

@TomTurboInvest Many thanks 👍🏼

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TradingHase@TradingHase

It would be very interesting to see whether this is a dip or the start of a downtrend for whatever reason.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@TradingHase
As already written. It went down because people see danger from AI. Similar to what is always said about Adobe.
In addition, the founder Leonard left the company at that time for health reasons.
But I personally see a recovery.
Because as you can see, they are continuing to expand. And fundamentally, things are going well.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@TradingHase
Do my business ideas have added value for you?

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TradingHase@TradingHase

@Tenbagger2024 Of course, it's always interesting

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@TradingHase
Is there anything to improve?

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TradingHase@TradingHase

@Tenbagger2024 For me, it has everything that needs to be in it

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@TradingHase
That makes me happy

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

@Tenbagger2024 would assume most of it comes from the exit and then the AI. I'm still not sure what to think. On the one hand, the share has done really well, but fundamentally I don't find it that attractive. I also see the danger of AI. Of course, these types of companies also have ki advantages. It remains to be seen what outweighs what, but when you see it, it's usually already priced in. Irrespective of this, the share is incredibly expensive and should accept a split of 1 to 30

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

@topicswithhead or 1 to 20 . The share has fallen considerably more than I looked at recently

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@topicswithhead
At a recent analyst conference, the company itself emphasized emphasized the danger posed by AI itself. That also caused another setback. But in the end, I think AI can only be used efficiently with the right software.
And Constellation also has that on its radar

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Simpson My dear, perhaps this endurance runner is also of interest to you.

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CKK@THE-ROCK-SAAR

Really great 👍🏻 Thank you @Tenbagger2024 🙏🏻 I continue to find the share very interesting and am really thinking about reducing the price and getting back in. All the parameters you mentioned above suit me. The only thing I can imagine is that the current P/E ratio of 75 is simply too high for investors.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@THE-ROCK-SAAR
With pleasure, my dear. 😘

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Tenbagger2024
Hope it helps you a little.

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aminemeskni@Aminmeskini

Super super, I am also invested. Just for your information, the kgv is practically meaningless for this company. The correct valuation indicator is the p/fcf.

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Thilo M.@ThiloM

Thank you, your analyses are often a good starting point.

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Johannes🦅🔥@Johannes001

REALLY GREAT stock in my analysis it has reached 83.8%! All I can say is: "Constellation Software has a small but extremely strong business model that has stood the test of time since 1995 and
and is still growing at over ~20% annually. The stock may look overvalued, but this is largely justified by its stable growth, clear & strong business model, high moat score & low competition.
justified. Constellation Software therefore clearly belongs in the portfolio."

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MrStonkss@MrStonkss

I will invest here when a bottom forms and may start a savings plan soon. Will you invest further capital when the bottom is reached?

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@MrStonkss
Hey there, you're still alive.
Nice to hear from you.
My position is already relatively large.

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MrStonkss@MrStonkss

@Tenbagger2024 Of course I'm still alive, I'm brutally busy at my company. And today I thought I'd sit down again. In view of the market situation, I think a savings plan makes sense for now.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@MrStonkss
That's a good idea.
Hope your portfolio is doing well

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MrStonkss@MrStonkss

@Tenbagger2024 Yes, it's going well. I have just invested in a new share: Tocvan. The company is still relatively small and is currently building a pilot plant for gold extraction. I have some insider information on this, which is why I am very confident.
Do you currently have a large cash position on the side in view of a possible market recovery? I do. That's why I'm currently waiting and only continuing with my savings plans or buying in tranches from companies I'm convinced of.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@MrStonkss
Yes, good question. Personally, I always find it a bit difficult to time the market.
There are always corrections on the stock market.
But you also want to be part of a rally.

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MrStonkss@MrStonkss

@Tenbagger2024 therefore savings plan + selected tranches

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Christoph@ChrisBizz

Thank you, very interesting share. The p/e ratio is quite extreme, even if you have to put the figure into perspective for companies like this.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@ChrisBizz
It is already cheap compared to the historical P/E ratio

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Christoph@ChrisBizz

Yes, that's true, but we are still quite close to the average. Especially as it only has a fairly short data basis of 5 years.
I think the expected P/E ratio for 2026 would be really interesting. Shouldn't we actually wait until 2026 to invest? 🤔 How likely are such forecasts to come true in general?

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Johannes🦅🔥@Johannes001

@Tenbagger2024 richtig

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