1Año·

Hello dear community,


Without further ado I decided to collect a few reasons why I think regenerative hydrogen is too overproportional on the stock market.


In the future I will write more articles behind technical aspects and processes, because it should be better for an investment to understand the business model, if the interest would be there of course ...


5 selected reasons why the potential of "green" hydrogen is overestimated on the stock market.


1. occurrence:

Hydrogen does not occur on earth in pure form. I hope critics will forgive the assumed 0.03% in the atmosphere. It is always bound. Currently, hydrogen is produced primarily from the process of "steam reforming". A relatively simple and portable process developed in the early 1920's and nearly perfected since then. The efficiency here is about 60-70%. Advantage and disadvantage at the same time: The price of hydrogen is directly linked to the price of natural gas.


2. political will:

"Germany has the energy for the turnaround!": is the advertising slogan of a good dividend payer. Realistically, this is not the case! Why? Quite simply: the price of electricity. According to official data, the industrial electricity price in Germany is about 40ct gross. That is far too much to make "sustainable" technologies attractive in the future, because it is well known that these are extremely energy-intensive. Just think of the electrolysis of water to hydrogen.

Other European countries are much more favorable in this respect. Just think of Norway, which is why they will be lucky enough to become a net-zero state within Europe. Of course, one can also remain naive and think that the future import from Norway will not be carried off with maximum profits.


https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/252029/umfrage/industriestrompreise-inkl-stromsteuer-in-deutschland/#:~:text=Industrie%20%2D%20Strompreis%20(inkl.,Stromsteuer)%20in%20Deutschland%20bis%202023&text=Der%20Industriestrompreis%20inklusive%20der%20Stromsteuer,40%2C11%20Cent%20pro%20Kilowattstunde.


3.price:

Ultimately, the end user will always consume according to the lowest price. This applies equally to commercial and private customers.

The following price ranges result per kg:

"Green" hydrogen: 4-6€/kg

"Grey" hydrogen: 1-3€/kg

These are net prices. So don't be surprised at the next H2 filling station when prices between 9€ and 12,50€ are called.


4. industry battle of the future:

Accordingly, the hype around hydrogen arises precisely because of the newcomers around Nel $NEL (-1,72 %) , Plug $PLUG (-3,79 %) , Ballard $BLDP (-4,76 %) and Co.

But it is astonishing how it is assumed that the big players are inactive. In the field of industrial gases, the dominant players are Linde $LIN , Air Liquide $AI (-1,54 %) , Air Products $APD (-0,59 %) and many more.

But here, too, major new players are entering the field. Total $TTE (-2,35 %) , Shell $SHEL (-0,63 %) BP $BP. (-1,88 %) and other oil companies also have the knowledge. Why? Hydrogen already plays an enormously important role in the refinery process. Naturally, they want to become independent of the gas giants and also move into new segments. So what do such small fish want in this shark tank? They will not be able to assert themselves. Their activities will be watched, of course, but at the right moment a giant will dare to make a takeover bid.


5. every investor overestimates himself here, because FOMO "kicks in." Major stock magazines have been advertising the industry for years, but reality always catches up with the dreamers. Many underestimate the amount of material, planning, cost and price pressure in the industry, because after all, it serves a vision that is politically promoted and serves to save humanity.


To the investors: Are you that naive? Hydrogen has its irreplaceable justification and will continue to gain in importance in the future, but not the importance that corresponds to the stock market values.

Here Nel is valued at about €2.5 billion, although they are burning money. Plug already has a valuation of about €8 billion, but is still unprofitable. Eventually, someone will pay for it. But one thing is for sure: big investors are pulling out the money and taking profits or minimizing losses. You don't have these opportunities for inside information!


Do you want a sequel?

What is your personal interest in hydrogen? Would you also like to know more about the technologies of the individual applicants?

attachment
previw image
30
26 Comentarios

Imagen de perfil
Please continue so, have only recently heard a contribution, where it is about how the EU or Spain, Portugal and France would like to invest in hydrogen production. Not only in companies that should produce hydrogen in the countries mentioned, but also in pipelines that should supply the EU. That it was already successfully hydrogen trucks were produced in the 80's, but the patents were bought up (oil industry) I personally see fired by climate change very positive about this issue. I personally prefer it to the "We all have to drive electric cars" policy.
3
Mostrar respuesta
Imagen de perfil
Interesting post! Around typed topics such as hydrogen or even cannabis I always make a bow in terms of stock market technology!
2
Mostrar respuesta
Fuck hydrogen. All in Tesla entirely according to the recommendation of the Tesla disciples here 🤯🤯🤯
2
Imagen de perfil
Yes, yes and yes! Very interesting. Do you see the "small" players like Plug or Nel critically? That they have no future at all? How high do you see the probability that a large player Linde, Air Liquid, etc. takes over such a small player, but the chances are also quite high, or? Thanks for your contribution
1
Ver todas las 4 respuestas adicionales
Imagen de perfil
I support constructive criticism & love technical discussions! ♥️ @ccf
1
Imagen de perfil
The only hydrogen stock that is seriously on my watch list is First Hydrogen. They are developing small hydrogen-powered vans. In addition, they build and design the corresponding refueling station system, including maintenance, etc.. A full-service offering. They are already very far along with the cars, prototypes are already in use. With MAN and Ballard Power, they have very big players in the team working on the version. Europe, and the UK in particular, are already very interested and even beckon with government subsidies. The market for small vans is huge. Electric batteries are not practical for the delivery and transport segment because of the charging times. The company is extremely well positioned in this market and is already quite far along with its vision. But it will be at least another 2-5 years before it is really ready for series production. I don't see hydrogen as a mass-market solution for private transport either, but I can really imagine it for this specific area. How do you see it? Am I too optimistic?
1
Mostrar respuesta
Imagen de perfil
In individual transport, I think hydrogen is nonsense for physical reasons. In general energy production, I have not yet dealt enough with efficiencies, if I'm honest. On the stock market, I have taken some profits with hyped things like plug power with pleasure, but do not think they are good sustainable investments. If the state would act logically, one would distribute subsidies accordingly on the basis of physical principles. But since the lobby has a lot to say here, we can forget it. On the subject of energy prices: I think many of the statistics are extremely embellished. In particular, because statistics do not take into account hidden subsidies in the form of tax breaks, etc. (I once made a post about this with somewhat older figures).
Ver todas las 3 respuestas adicionales
This market will probably remain very volatile in the future and I am curious how the oil multinationals position themselves. Shell is already doing very well (I am cautiously invested 😉). What do you think of companies like SFC Energy?
Ver todas las 4 respuestas adicionales
Comentario eliminado
Ver todas las 3 respuestas adicionales
Únase a la conversación