Hi everyone,

Where do you currently see the greatest long-term opportunities in the Big Tech sector?

• $AMD (+0,99 %)
• $AMZN (+0,45 %)
• $GOOGL (-0,94 %)
• $AAPL (-0,36 %)
• $META (+0,64 %)
• $NVDA (+3,67 %)
• $TSLA (+1,09 %)
• $MSFT (+1,26 %)
• $NFLX (+0,96 %)
• $AVGO (+1,32 %)
• $CRM (+0,66 %)

In 2024, a lot has happened for me financially. I started investing around the middle of 2021. As I come from a family in which investing in the stock market was rather frowned upon (my parents invested in car manufacturers in 2000, which then slipped in 2001 just like everything else and they realized the losses), I only dared to start with small amounts bit by bit on an ETF basis in 2021. Financial flow classic 70% MSCI World ETF and 30% MSCI EM. The good thing about this was above all building up the automatism of investing money steadily and not waiting until the end of the month.

However, in 2024 I started to look more closely at the topic of finance, sometimes watching Berkshire conferences with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and realized that I was interested in individual stocks and would like to own Apple (shares) myself, for example. In February 24' I then looked at my EM position and saw that the position had been more or less at 0 since '21. So I sold just under €1000 and put it into Apple. And no, I didn't calculate the intrinsic value of the share first and didn't know at the time that Apple would be launching devices with AI at the end of 2024. I myself work in the field of software engineering/data science and if someone has the choice, you actually always take the Macbook over Windows computers. But that's another topic for debate :)

The Apple shares then performed really well even after the purchase and I was fascinated by the fact that I generated more unrealized profits with a single share or 6 Apple shares within 2 months than with the EM in 4 years. (I'll come back to EM later)

From March onwards, I suspended my savings plan in the ETFs and simply put the money in my Scalable clearing account instead. I didn't know what exactly I wanted to buy now, so pretty much from mid-24' I started to dive more into investing and how to analyze stocks. I had already studied discounted cash flow analysis in my bachelor's degree, back then in the subject of finance with a 3.0 :D. So I built an Excel spreadsheet and started using DCF models to calculate the intrinsic value of shares.

But what exactly should my strategy be when buying shares?

I mean, I already liked getting a dividend from Apple, so did I want to pursue some kind of dividend growth strategy? Should I go for "fast growers" as Peter Lynch would say? But should I then also add so-called "stalwarts" (dividend stocks) and "asset plays" (stocks with very expensive inventories, for example, or investments and cash whose book value is well below their actual value) to my portfolio, as he advises?

"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for ten years" - W. Buffett

Long-term focus

My investment horizon is over 10 years, so it is important to me to have some kind of predictability of income from the companies I want to buy. It was also important for me to be patient when buying from the outset and to allow some time to pass in order to check whether an investment thesis holds up over quarters.

Quality

I focus exclusively on companies with a leading position in their respective industry, either number 1 or number 2 in the respective sector with a large market share. The important thing here is that growth should be primarily organic. This means that the company should either simply build good, irreplaceable products that customers love and therefore remain loyal to, or simply be so influential that they can simply raise their prices without really losing customers ("pricing power" like Apple)

Concentration

Especially for someone coming from the financial flow school where the more diversified the investment, the better, it was hard to get used to this element. The investor Dev Kantesaria, who has successfully managed Valley Forge Capital for years and whose philosophy is also based on mine, once described this very aptly in an interview: "Why should I invest in my 25th best investment idea?". Accordingly, my goal is only to invest in a maximum of 15 individual stocks - I can't even manage to regularly check more in my free time and check whether the investment thesis still holds up.

Discipline

With the Emerging Markets ETF, I have held a position in my portfolio for several years purely out of conviction that this investment in emerging markets will work out in the long term. I also want to hold my stocks with the same conviction that they will perform well over the long term. In addition, I usually invest in companies when their intrinsic value suggests a margin of safety of at least 15-20%. For example, there was a slump in Alphabet shares in the summer with the unrest that Alphabet might be split up. The share was worth around €150 at the time. All of Alphabet's individual businesses have a combined intrinsic value of €250-300. Also related to this strategy element is that I don't really touch individual sectors that are associated with large research and development costs, for example, unless I really know my way around them. So I avoid biotech companies because I hardly know anything about them, but I invest in tech companies because I work in IT myself.

So I look for companies that are quasi monopolies in their respective industries, with strong market shares and a large moat due to irreplaceable or hard-to-penetrate products and a solid margin with a focus on steady free cash flow growth.

So why do I actually have the Emerging Markets ETF?

I asked myself this question and then promptly took another look at just ETF to see which stocks are actually in it. The top 10 holdings accounted for almost 25%. Why is that important? Some people always complain that the Magnificent 7 have such a high share in the S&P500, also slightly more than 25%, but this is usually due to the fact that companies are often weighted by market capitalization. If you then take a closer look at the top 10, 5 of them are Chinese companies. In general, China accounts for just under 25% of the ETF share. Chinese equities are not bad per se, there are some very good companies. However, the constant intervention of the government is a problem, laws can be changed overnight and a company becomes obsolete, or Mr. Ma, the CEO of Alibaba, simply disappears for a few months after having expressed mild criticism of government officials in a speech. These characteristics go against my strategy as formulated above, which is why the EM ETF was thrown out completely in July.

I then slowly tried to build up my individual positions towards the end of July, primarily $CRM (+0,66 %) , $ASML (-0,03 %) , $MSFT (+1,26 %) , $BKNG (+0,27 %) , $GOOG (-1,01 %) , $V (+0,23 %) and $AMZN (+0,45 %) . On August 5 there was a small correction, I think it was due to the "Japanese carry trade". That week I made another big purchase, very happy not to have invested all my freed-up EM capital at once. As a result, I was able to invest heavily in Amazon and Alphabet and make them my largest single positions.

Overall, I am very happy with the decision. I am aware that the last stock market year was a very good one overall and that you shouldn't be deceived by appearances. Things will probably not always go so well. My third-largest single position, in which I was in the red at just under €1500 in the meantime $ASML (-0,03 %) is good proof of this. Nevertheless, this company is a virtual monopoly in the chip manufacturing sector and will most likely remain so for the next 10 years. Therefore, I can only shrug my shoulders and look at the reports from the Magnificent 7, which are constantly expanding their data centers and in some cases were unable to meet demand in the last quarters of 2024! But there are already some good articles on this here on getquin. A new addition at the end of '24 is $UBER (+0,45 %) I will also be steadily expanding my position there, and the watchlist also includes $MELI (+0,31 %) , $MCO (+0,19 %) , $SPGI (-0,16 %) , $CAKE (-0,3 %) and $AMD (+0,99 %) for 2025.

To summarize:

Portfolio performance: 31% vs. S&P500 25%

Invested capital: approx. 22,000 euros

Portfolio value growth: approx. 42,000 euros

Goals for 2025:

• 30k invested (a large crypto cash-out will take place with approx. 20-30k, not included in the portfolio)
• Beat the S&P500
• Increase portfolio value to 150k
• Sell $TTWO (+0,64 %) (GTA 6 bet, but by the time this appears it feels like you've already done 10x in other companies)
• expansion $SPGI (-0,16 %) and addition of $MCO (+0,19 %) (credit rating duopolies)

Part 5 of 5
/ Review of the year 2024: In the first 4 parts

of my investment story, I looked at the years 2013 to 2023.

A mixture of highs and lows. While there was a lot of learning at the beginning, the last few years are finally bearing fruit!

Monthly view:

2024 was another very positive year, although December again resulted in a slight loss in the portfolio.

In total, December was -0,8%. This corresponds to price losses of -3.200€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was -0.9% and the S&P500 -2.5%.

In the following, however, I would like to look primarily at the whole of 2024 and not

just December.

Year as a whole:

Winners & losers:

The winner par excellence is hardly surprising NVIDIA $NVDA (+3,67 %) with

almost €20,000 in share price gains! And this despite the fact that I took my entire stake of ~€4,000 off the table in March.

In 2nd place follows Bitcoin
$BTC (-0,78 %) with approx. 6,000€ price gains. 3rd-5th place

are shared by TSMC $TSM (+1,43 %)
Alphabet $GOOG (-1,01 %) and Meta
$META (+0,64 %) with gains of ~€5,000 each.

On the loser side it looks very relaxed all in all.

Sartorius $SRT (+0,1 %)
Nike $NKE (+0,41 %)

and Bechtle $BC8 (-0,64 %) have each caused share price losses of ~€1,000. They are followed by LVMH $MC (+0,06 %) with share price losses of €500 and Amgen $AMGN (+0,9 %) with €200.

All in all, share price losses that are not really worth mentioning.

The performance-neutral movements in 2024 were just under €20,000. This is a significant decline compared to the almost €30,000 from previous years. This was due to some private issues and the upcoming house construction.

My performance for the year as a whole was +28,8% and therefore outperformed my benchmark, the MSCI World, by 25.8%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~347.000€. This

corresponds to an absolute growth of ~95,000€ in the current

year 2023. ~71.000€ of which comes from price gains, ~3.800€ from

dividends / interest and ~20.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• The dividends in December were 17% above the previous year at ~€370
• Amgen is in the lead with over 50€ (gross) dividend every 3 months
• For the year as a whole, my dividends amounted to ~2.900€ and thus almost 25% over 2023

Buys & sells:

- I bought in December for a significantly reduced ~500€

- As always, my savings plans were executed:

- Blue chips: Lockheed Martin $LMT (+0,48 %) Republic Services $RSG (+0,19 %) Thermo Fisher $TMO (+1,14 %) ASML $ASML (-0,03 %) Northrop Grumman $NOC (+1,83 %) Itochu $8001 (-2,02 %) Constellation Software $CSU (+0,42 %) Hermes $RMS Salesforce $CRM (+0,66 %) MasterCard $MA (+0,71 %) Deere $DE (+0,22 %)

- Growth: -

- ETFs: MSCI World $XDWD (+0,12 %) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+0,15 %)

- Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (-0,78 %) and Ethereum $ETH (-1,35 %)

- There were no further sales in December

Target 2024 & outlook 2025:

My goal for 2024 was to reach €300,000 in the portfolio. Due to the

extremely positive market performance in the current year, my portfolio stands at ~€ 350,000 at the end of the year. I was therefore able to significantly exceed my target.

What will happen in 2025? The logical target, of course, would be 400.000€ to be achieved. However, due to the upcoming house construction, part of the assets will be invested in the house construction. If I include the property in my statement of assets, the target of €400,000 would of course not change.

However, as I am more likely to be tracking my liquid assets here, I will probably

probably refrain from doing so.

Therefore, my year-end target for 2025 will probably be closer to the final balance for 2024. So around €350,000 at the end of 2025.

How are things looking for you? Have you already thought about your plans for 2025?

Finally, I wanted to say thank you again for all the positive reactions to my investment story!

https://linktr.ee/mister.ultra

#dividends
#dividende
#rückblick
#depotupdate
#aktie
#stocks
#etfs
#crypto
#personalstrategy

Happy New Year everyone! We are starting the new year with adjustments to the Sina ETF. (The performance here below somehow no longer corresponds to the actual performance, but so be it...) After this post you'll have peace and quiet from my ETF again :D

I sold some stocks and invested the dividends I received last year. That left me with 19 euros in cash, so it's still a 40-share ETF ;)

If this were my only portfolio, I would probably have held more cash and not reinvested directly, as the entry point doesn't always seem optimal. But I also proceeded without regard to entry points.

For the question of how high the profits or losses were, please refer to the portfolio.

Out are:

$STLAM (-0,54 %) (loss)

$AFX (+0,55 %) (loss)

$MC (+0,06 %) (loss)

$OR (-0,39 %) (loss)

$7203 (+0,39 %) (loss)

$D05 (-0,95 %) (Profit)

$RHM (+0,59 %) (Profit)

$ENR (+3,83 %) (Profit; also dropped from my "real" portfolio)

Partial sale:

$WMT (+0,2 %) at 50%

Increased by:

$AAPL (-0,36 %)

$MSFT (+1,26 %)

$ASML (-0,03 %) Since the position was down over 20%, but I am convinced in the long term

$GOOGL (-0,94 %)

New additions:

$BKNG (+0,27 %)

$JPM (+0,05 %)

$NU (+0,38 %)

$COST (+0,04 %)

$AFL (+0,12 %)

$INTC (-0,51 %)

$CRM (+0,66 %)

$NOVO B (+1,47 %)

In addition to my World ETF core, I would like to invest in the following shares (partly via a savings plan) in the coming year.

How do you rate these shares?

Which of them would you also take or do you already have in your portfolio?

$CRWD (+1,75 %) - Crowdstrike

$CRM (+0,66 %) - Salesforce

$AVGO (+1,32 %) - Broadcom

$ACN (+0,18 %) - Accenture

$SOFI (+0,66 %) - SoFi

$MELI (+0,31 %) - Mercadolibre

$TSLA (+1,09 %) - Tesla

$AXON (+1,37 %) - Axon

$NU (+0,38 %) - Nu Holdings (possibly)

Hello everyone,

At the end of last year, I published my "top picks list" here, in which I presented the stocks that I have put on my watchlist for 2024 and am also partially invested in (unfortunately not in all of them 😁).

At the time, I had compiled a list of stocks recommended by well-known analysts and put them through "my requirements profile". The original 100 stock ideas then became the list below. A year later, I'm looking back. This was the performance:

🟢 $TMUS (-0,12 %) +1,63%

🟢 Sterling Infrastructure: +100.68%

🟢 $CRM (+0,66 %) Salesforce: +28.14%

🟢 $RR. (+1,73 %) Rolls-Royce: +92.56%

🟢 $MOD (+0,39 %) Modine Manufacturing: +98.68%

🟠 $MHO (+0,17 %) M/I Homes: -1.46%

🟢 $META (+0,64 %) Meta: +68.52%

🟢 $MCD (+0,25 %) McDonalds: +0.14%

🟢 $MA (+0,71 %) Mastercard: +26.26%

🟢 $ISP (-0,67 %) Intesa Sanpaolo: +45.44%

🟢 $ISRG (+0,7 %) Intuitive Surgical: +59.62%

🟠 $GCT Gigacloud Technologies: -0.66%

🟢 $FDX (+0,65 %) FedEx: +11.11%

🟠 $LPG (+0,2 %) Dorian LPG: -47.70%

🟢 $COST (+0,04 %) Costco: +43.34%

🟢 $US1011372067 Boston Scientific: +63.23%

🟢 $BKNG (+0,27 %) Booking: +44.19%

🟠 $ABX (+0,65 %) Barrick Gold: -14.73%

🟢 $APP (+0,45 %) Applovin: +753.81%

🟢 $GOOG (-1,01 %) Alphabet: +39.28%

🟢 $AMZN (+0,45 %) Amazon: +48,05%

🟢 $ANF (+0,35 %) Abercrombie & Fitch: +69.99%

As you can see, my stock ideas have done quite well. $APP (+0,45 %) with +753.81% was of course a big hit. $DORIAN With -47.70% it was a pipe-dropper.

🔥 I'm currently working on my top picks list for 2025. If you're interested, I'll be happy to share it again and put it up for discussion!

💬 What were your top picks in 2024? And what were the losers? I will reply to every comment and give you a brief assessment.

#stockanalysis
#watchlist

Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce
$CRM (+0,66 %)recently said on CNBC:

"While other companies like Microsoft claim they can do AI, Salesforce is showing that we're already doing it today." ... "Customers were impressed by CoPilot so disappointed."

"An Agentforce-agent is an independent, proactive assistance application that provides tailored support for employees or customers around the clock.

Equipped with extensive specialist knowledge, the agent takes on specific tasks and fulfills them in a targeted and effective manner depending on the role."

Salesforce
$CRM (+0,66 %) -CEO Marc Benioff plans, according to CNBC, 2.000 additional sales employees who specialize in AI.

In Part 1 I described my start as an investor from 2010 to 2016. Despite loss-making investments and bad decisions (buying AT&T instead of Amazon), I was able to achieve a portfolio value of €35,000. These experiences were to lay the first foundation stone for my future successful investment strategy (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/PElWrODsmV)

In part 2 I talk about further setbacks in 2017 and 2018 and how the purchase of MasterCard shares marked the turning point in my investment career. Despite initial losses and professional dissatisfaction, I realized that my original strategy wasn't working and discovered the "dividend growth" for me. With a new professional position and a solid salary, I was finally able to really hit the ground running in 2019 (https://app.getquin.com/de/activity/LUkWiLtZKX)

In part 3 it will now be about the years 2019 to 2021 will be discussed. In these 3 years, my portfolio has increased fivefold. From €40,000, it went up to €199,000 in the meantime. But not everything was positive here either. During this time, I also made the two worst trades of my investment career. In addition to Wirecard, there were two other equity investments that resulted in losses of over 80%.

The year 2019 & the first share savings plans:

The year 2019 started with a portfolio balance of ~€40,000 and after my MasterCard purchase in December 2018, my major portfolio reorganization was to continue directly at the beginning of 2019. So in the first four months with Tencent $700 (-0,51 %)
Intel $INTC (-0,51 %)
Salesforce $CRM (+0,66 %)
Alphabet $GOOG (-1,01 %) and Meta $META (+0,64 %) (then still Facebook), five more tech stocks were added to my portfolio. In return I have BHP Billiton $BHP (-0,82 %)
Macy's $M (+0,41 %)
and Hugo Boss $BOSS (-0,18 %) sold.

Later in the year, the shares of Mercedes $MBG (-0,62 %)
and AT&T $T (+0,25 %) were also removed from the portfolio.

In addition to further acquisitions such as Pepsi $PEP (+0,28 %)
Nextera Energy $NEE (+0,43 %)
or Xylem $XYL (+0,06 %) I also recognized the benefits of share savings plans in 2019 and started to set up a pure "savings plan custody account". At that time, this was still done via comdirect or Consorsbank and each savings plan execution cost a fee of 0.75%.

Another sale in 2019 was the Gamestop-share $GME (-0,2 %) . Bought in 2016 to have something to do with gaming in the portfolio, but not taking into account that stationary sales are becoming less and less relevant. In the end, the share price fell by 85% - unfortunately, this was long before the memestock hype emerged.

My portfolio rose to ~€67,000 in 2019 and achieved a return of 23%. However, this was still well below the MSCI World and the S&P 500.

The year 2020 - Corona, Wirecard bankruptcy & 100k before 30 in the portfolio

2020 - a year that few of us will probably forget. While everything was still going reasonably smoothly in January and February 2020, chaos was set to break out from mid-February/March.

The first few weeks of 2020 had given rise to hopes of a very positive development in my portfolio. From the beginning of January to mid-February, my portfolio rose by almost €10,000 to €77,000.

Panic then slowly set in from mid-February. I still remember exactly how trading on the US stock markets was repeatedly suspended for short periods and daily losses of 10% were normal. At 0 o'clock sharp, I looked at the US futures and in seconds the futures went down by -5%. A cap for the futures, the futures loss must not be higher and you knew the next morning it would end badly for the DAX.

But when there is blood in the streets, you can make very good deals! So in March 2020 I bought the Allianz
$ALV (-0,29 %) for €118. This gives me a personal dividend yield of almost 12% based on the current dividend of €13.80. Unfortunately, I only bought for €1,000 in total.

Also Starbucks
$SBUX (+0,42 %) I was able to buy for less than €50.

The stock market crash continued until the Fed made short work of it and ended the crash single-handedly. The crash was ended with interest rate cuts and massive money printing and once again the saying "Never bet against the FED" proved to be true.

The stock markets then went through the roof and within a very short space of time were already back to a positive level compared to the end of 2019. Every share that somehow falls under the term "stay at home" was suddenly the hot tip on the stock market. Whether the Peloton $PTON (+1,71 %)

or Teladoc $TDOC (+1,41 %) everything went through the roof.

I let myself get carried away and did about 10 "Stay at Home" hype stocks into a growth savings plan portfolio. Of these, at the end of 2024 with Sea $SE (+0,79 %) and MercadoLibre $MELI (+0,31 %) only two shares remained. It goes without saying that most of them left the portfolio at a loss.

But 2020 was also the Wirecard year $WDI BaFin's ban on short selling, a year-long audit by EY, political backing and massive investments by German fund managers from DWS, UnionInvest and Deka vs. a journalist from the Financial Times.

Wirecard's claims that the journalist was in cahoots with short sellers and the backing from various institutions were unfortunately too credible for me.

When Wirecard faced the press and announced that EUR 2 billion could no longer be found, things went downhill and it became clear to everyone that the company was heading for insolvency. Before trading was suspended, I was able to sell my shares at a 50% loss and got off lightly.

Later in the year, I was able to conclude an extremely favorable leasing offer and sell my private car. The proceeds went straight into my securities account and I broke the €100,000 barrier in November 2020.

My portfolio then ended the year with a value of ~€120,000. At +5%, my performance was pretty much in line with the MSCI World.

The year 2021 - HYPE! Wall Street bets, crypto and almost 200k in the portfolio

The year 2021 was characterized above all by hypes. Cryptocurrencies, memestocks and memecoins were in the headlines everywhere. Gamestop, Dogecoin, SPACs and NFTs everyone had to have.

Traditional shares became almost boring.

One of the reasons was certainly the checks that the US government issued to its citizens. It was still Corona, many were locked down and suddenly people started gambling on the stock market.

The hype can be illustrated very well using the example of NFTs. In 2021, NFTs worth $17 billion were traded, in 2023 it was only 80 million - a decline of 97%. According to one study, ~95% of all NFTs are now completely worthless.

The madness in one example: Procter & Gamble launched a Charmin toilet paper NFT. This was sold for over $4,000. All proceeds were donated, but a symbol of the madness of 2021.

From a portfolio perspective, 2021 was great! In the end, there was a +32% return and a portfolio value of over €190,000, which at times in November 2021 was €199,000.

My top performers were NVIDIA
$NVDA (+3,67 %) with over 100% price gains and Pfizer $PFE (+0,27 %)
, which was driven by the vaccine hype and at €50 was twice as high as in 2024.

My worst performer was another 80% loss with TAL Education $TAL (+0,28 %) . An education company from China. Unfortunately, this was the first time I was able to experience the political arbitrariness in countries like China. Overnight, it was decided that education/tutoring could only be run as a non-profit. Of course, this was almost a death sentence for the company and the share price plummeted by 80%.

Asset development & return:

After the years 2013 to 2018 were forgettable in terms of returns, the years 2019 to 2021 finally delivered:

Year
Deposit value
Yield

2019 67.000€ +19%

2020 121.000€ +5%

2021 193.000€ +34%

Vermögensentwicklung 2019-2021:

Vermögensentwicklung 2013-2021:

Outlook:

Looking back on the hype year 2021, it is almost obvious that 2022 had to be clearly negative.

After the party, however, came the hangover in the form of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sharply rising interest rates and global economic concerns did the rest.

In the next part, I would therefore like to look at the years 2022 & 2023. I will then combine 2024 with my review of the year in the last part.

#strategy

#personalstrategy

#etfs

#dividends