🧬 BICO
$BICO (+0,67 %) has been on my watchlist since my early days on getquin.

In 2021, the company was on everyone's lips, celebrated as the company of the future in bioprinting.

But what followed was a classic hype cycle: the share price rose rapidly, was cheered by quite a few "finfluencers" and then plummeted just as sharply.

Many people got their fingers burnt back then. What remains is the image of an overvalued tech fantasy, fueled by empty promises and loud voices without substance.

And yet: The company has remained. So has the vision, and in recent months a lot seems to have changed structurally.

Today, more than 80 % below its all-time high, the question arises anew:

Is BICO simply an overrated stock market experiment...

... or is the current valuation realistic for the first time and BICO on the way to translating its technological substance into a genuine business model?

Over the past few weeks, I have been taking a closer look at the company's structure, history and current developments, including the latest figures [1] and the earnings call [2] from 29.04.25.

In this article, I share my collected insights, thoughts and assessments for those who also have the company on their watchlist.

As always:
No investment advice. I don't want to contribute to more burnt fingers, but to encourage reflection.

Have fun!

BICO Group AB (formerly CELLINK) is a Swedish life science company founded in 2016.

The original innovation: a biocompatible ink for 3D printing of living cells, a small revolution in research.

Today, BICO stands for a big goal: Bioconvergence.

This means merging biology, technology, software and automation to make research, diagnostics and drug development faster, cheaper and more efficient.

What is the vision and how does BICO make money?

The vision: The laboratory of the future. Automated, networked, efficient with AI, robotics and bioprinting.

This is how BICO earns money today:

• Bioprinting3D printing of living cells & tissue (CELLINK) read more...

• Diagnostic solutions & microdosing (SCIENION)

• Lab AutomationFully automated workflows through software such as Green Button Go® (Biosero)

• Consumables & services for laboratories and research facilities

Share of Sales 2024:

Excursus
Bioprinting:

BICO was with CELLINK was one of the first suppliers worldwide to offer bioprinters plus matching "bioinks" commercially.

The basic idea:

• A 3D printer (e.g. the CELLINK BIO X6) prints cells in layers, similar to how a normal 3D printer layers plastic.
• Instead of plastic, a special "ink" is used: Bioink.

Bioink and what it is made of:

Bioink is a gel-like substance that is mixed with living cells. It contains, for example:

• Alginate (from algae)
• gelatine
• collagen
• hyaluronic acid
• Cell nutrient solutions

This matrix keeps the cells alive and makes it possible to print biologically active structures, e.g. tissue samples, tumor models or skin structures.

Is this already being done today or is it all future?

Yes, it is being done, but not clinically.

Bioprinting is currently being used, for example:

• Cell models for drug testing (in research & at pharmaceutical companies)
• printing tumor tissue to better test therapies
• Tissue samples used for toxicology tests (e.g. skin, cartilage, blood vessels)

What is not yet possible:

• Complete organs (hearts, livers, kidneys) for transplants

Because...

• Organs are extremely complex (blood vessels, nerves, functions)
• Currently lack the ability to keep them alive in the long term
• This is also a huge step in regulatory terms

🔮 Future potential: unrealistic or groundbreaking

If bioprinting really breaks through in medicine, we will be talking about one of the biggest breakthroughs of the 21st century:

• organs on demand (no donor needed)
• personalized medicine
• Animal-free drug development

RealisticFirst functional organs could be available in 10 -20 years clinically relevant, but first in small pilot studies or animal models.

Are there any research results or publications on this?

Yes, BICO (especially CELLINK) is a regular co-author or technology partner in publications.

Especially in areas such as:

• Tumor models
• tissue modeling
• biocompatibility
• Skin and cartilage models

Several universities and research institutions use the BIO X printers, including for example MIT and Harvard

Trusted partners:

• Sartorius$SRT (+0,92 %) (has taken over MatTek/Visikol, remains cooperation partner)
• AstraZeneca $AZN (+0,44 %)
• Pfizer $PFE (-3,31 %) (individual case studies)
• Top 20 pharmaceutical companies with Biosero projects (Lab Automation)
• Research centers worldwide
• Cooperation with Sartorius in the APAC region (e.g. Japan, South Korea)

Digression Conclusion

Bioprinting sounds like science fiction and yes, it is a long way from everyday transplantation. But in research and diagnostics it is real, applicable and in demand.

• BICO is not selling promises for the future, but tools that are used in leading laboratories today. The big leap is yet to come, but the foundations have been laid.

__________

History in brief From bioink to platform

• 2016: Founded as CELLINK, the first bioink worldwide

• 2020: Renamed BICO (for Bio Convergence)

• 2021-202315+ acquisitions (including SCIENION, Biosero, MatTek)

• 2024-2025: Streamlining of the structure (sales to Sartorius), withdrawal from non-strategic areas

• 2025: Focus on automation, diagnostics and bioprinting with a clear industry orientation

New CEO since 2024: Maria Forss

• PredecessorErik Gatenholm (co-founder & CEO for many years)

• Change: Gatenholm stepped down in fall 2023, Maria Forss officially became CEO in January 2024

Maria Forss brings decades of experience from leading life science companies:

At Vitrolife (2018 - 2023), she led global expansion and M&A projects, including the billion-euro deal with Igenomix. Prior to that (2014 - 2018), she was at Elekta (radiotherapy, oncology) where she was responsible for global marketing and product strategies.

She started her career at AstraZenecawhere she gained international experience in sales, regulatory affairs and market launch. There she learned what makes large pharmaceutical companies tick, particularly in terms of approval, market launch and regulatory navigation

She is an expert in:

• Business Development
• transformation & strategy
• international expansion

The retirement of founder Gatenholm points to a clear change in strategy, away from visionary, growth-driven development and towards cost control, profitability and integration.

In the Earnings Call Q1 2025 Forss emphasizes several times:

"We have implemented a new operational structure, are harmonizing global functions and are focusing on efficiency and selected growth areas."

📊 Q1 2025 in figures and what's really behind it (Caution currency: Swedish krona, 1 SEK ~ 0.10 USD)

• TurnoverSEK 389 million (-17 %)
• Organic growth: -19 %
• EBITDASEK -12 million
• Cash flow from operating activitiesSEK +77 million
• Net lossSEK -235 million
• Cash positionSEK 684 million
• Convertible bondSEK 1.1 bn outstanding (maturity: March 2026)

Supplement:

Q1 is seasonally weak as many customers (especially in research) do not make large investments at the beginning of the year. At the same time, Q4 was strong, which pulled sales forward.

Comparison of the three previous segments (Q1 2025)

With a view to organic growth:

👩‍🔬 Life Science Solutions:

• SalesSEK 191 million
• Organic growth: +4 % 👀
• ApplicationsDiagnostics, cell research, microdosing

🧬 Bioprinting:

• Sales105 million SEK
• Organic growth: +41 % 👀
• Applications: 3D cell printing, bioinks, in-vitro models

🔬Lab Automation:

• SalesSEK 94 million
• Organic growth: - 58 %
• ApplicationsAutomation of complete laboratory processes

What do the individual divisions do?

👩‍🔬 Life Science Solutions:

This is where BICO develops laboratory technologies for diagnostics and cell research, such as devices for high-precision dosing of tiny quantities of liquids, consumables and special analysis platforms.

Examples:

Cancer diagnostics:

• SCIENION devices help to precisely apply tumor markers to test chips, the basis for modern blood tests for early detection.

Allergy tests:

• Using microdosing technology, mini test fields are loaded with allergens to create personalized skin or blood tests.

Genetic testing & DNA analysis:

• Systems from BICO precisely dose minute amounts of liquid onto gene chips, which then analyze intolerances or genetic risk factors, for example.

Point-of-care diagnostics:

• Production of compact rapid test cartridges (e.g. for influenza, RSV, bacterial infections) for home use or the doctor's surgery.

🧬 Bioprinting (see excursus above)

• BICO sells 3D printers for living cells (e.g. from CELLINK) and bioinks, i.e. cell carrier gels for printing tissue.

• ApplicationResearch, drug testing, animal-free toxicology

🔬 Lab automation

This is about the complete automation of laboratories, e.g. robots that create cell cultures, carry out analyses or coordinate samples. Everything is controlled centrally via the Green Button Go® software from Biosero.

💰 How profitable is BICO currently?

BICO is not yet profitable in the traditional sense, as EBIT (operating result) was clearly negative at SEK -290 million in 2024.

However, the operating cash flow a completely different picture: this was 2024 positive at SEK +259 million, as well as in Q1 2025 at +77 MSEK.

This means that BICO is now earning money in its core business, meaning that liquidity is flowing into the company.

The EBIT is still burdened by high depreciation and amortization on earlier acquisitions, research expenditure and, in some cases, one-off restructuring costs.

Conclusion
up to here:

BICO is not yet "through", but the path to operational profitability is recognizable. The company is heading in the right direction, now it depends on whether it can stabilize its operating base and continue to scale its high-margin business areas.

🤝 Business divisions & restructuring (from Q2 2025)

BICO previously operated in 3 segments:

• Bioprinting (e.g. CELLINK)

• Life Science Solutions (e.g. SCIENION)

• Lab Automation (e.g. Biosero)

New from Q2 2025:

Only two divisions, as Bioprinting will be integrated into "Life Science Solutions". Why?

Because CELLINK & Co. are now closely interlinked with diagnostics and consumables. The new setup is intended to increase efficiency, leverage synergies and simplify reporting.

📊 Classification of the figures and why Lab Automation is not growing, even though it is strategically so important

Bioprinting & Life Science Solutions show positive organic growth, while Lab Automationthe third-largest division, shrank massively (-58%).

Automation in particular is one of the main growth drivers in the bioconvergence strategy.

Explanation according to earnings call:

Q1 2024 (PY) was an upward outlier:

• An exceptionally large order from Biosero was booked at that time (project business).
• This effect distorts the basis for comparison, which exaggerates the decline in 2025.

Fewer project starts and completions in Q1 2025:

• Projects in Lab Automation are not distributed linearly, but are completed in phases
• There were simply fewer completed milestones in Q1 = less sales.

Macro-related reluctance on the part of major customers (pharma):

• Investment decisions were delayed, not canceled.

According to CEO Maria Forss:

"The underlying demand for Lab Automation continues to be strong."

"Project cycles are longer - but demand from pharma remains intact."

Project business is naturally volatile:

• Lab Automation is not recurring, but order-based.
• This leads to strong quarterly fluctuations - even with a stable order backlog.

BICO's strategic response

Standardization of project packages:

• Shorter durations, modular solutions to cushion order fluctuations

Strengthening project management:

• To better control time delays and resource commitment

Focus on pharmaceutical customers:

• Cooperation with "Top 20 Pharma Companies" is being expanded, geographically flexible (USA, EU, Asia)

➡️ The decline in sales in Lab Automation looks dramatic, but is primarily due to timing and not a structural problem.

BICO is responding with strategic adjustments to its product portfolio and points to continued strong demand, only with longer lead times.

For investors, this means that the decline is unfavorable but explainable, not alarming

Further statements from the earnings call

CEO Maria Forss:

"Despite a decline in sales, Life Science Solutions and Bioprinting are showing positive development. Our strategy adjustment is taking effect."

• Bioprinting is booming: +41 % organic, CELLINK +130 % (on a low basis)

• SCIENION stabilizes Diagnostics: Miniaturization & home testing drive demand

• USA weakness in research: Reluctance to invest among academic customers due to uncertain NIH funding

• Tariffs & macro volatility: BICO has shifted production out of China, flexed supply chain

• Divestments: MatTek & Visikol sold, enables net cash position in Q2 2025

Why is bioprinting booming right now?

• New regulatory trends: FDA allows animal testing alternatives
• Increasing demand for in-vitro tissue models
• International expansion (e.g. India, Asia)
• Favorable product mix (bioinks, consumables)

Excursus in-vitro tissue models:

"In vitro" means: outside the living body, e.g. in a petri dish, on a chip or in a laboratory device.

Tissue models are replicated biological structures that resemble real human (or animal) tissue.

Example:

A skin tissue printed with cells that is used for cosmetic or drug tests, without animal testing.

What's the point?

• Safety & efficacy tests (e.g. for drugs, chemicals)
• Disease models (e.g. tumor tissue for cancer research)
• Personalized medicine (tissue from own cells)

In vitro tissue models are an ethically and scientifically attractive alternative to animal testing and BICO supplies the printing technology for this, among other things.

Is BICO a unique company in bioprinting?

No, but one of the pioneers with a broad portfolio.

There are competitors such as Allevi, Aspect Biosystems and Organovo, but BICO combines hardware, software and services under one roof - a strategic advantage.

Where does the market currently stand and what does the future look like?

• The market for bioconvergence is still young, provocatively speaking perhaps comparable to the cloud in 2010
• Applications such as automated laboratories, in-vitro models and AI-supported diagnostics are in their infancy
• Long-term demand is enormous for personalized medicine, increased efficiency and ethics (e.g. avoidance of animal testing)

Possible future scenarios

1 . BICO becomes a global playerBICO continues to grow, automates laboratories worldwide

2 . BICO becomes a takeover candidate: Groups such as Sartorius $SRT (+0,92 %) , Danaher $DHR (-2,2 %) or Thermo Fisher $TMO (-0,65 %) could strike

3 . BICO remains niche leader: Focused on profitable segments with high innovation density

Risks & critical voices

• Unprofitable: No sustainable EBIT coverage yet
• Convertible bond (SEK 1.1bn, equivalent to USD 114m): Maturity 2026, repayment depends on cash flow & divestments
• Risk of dilution if convertible bond is serviced via shares
• Strong dependence on projects -> sales fluctuations
• Competitive pressure from large corporations

The topic of the convertible bond has made me sit up and take notice again; here are some more deep dives:

What's the deal with BICO's convertible bonds until 2026?

Convertible bonds are a kind of hybrid between a bond and a share. They work like this:

• Investors lend money to BICO (e.g. SEK 1,000)
• BICO pays interest in return

At the end of the term (March 2026), investors receive either:

• the money back
• or can convert the bond into shares - depending on the agreed price

The whole thing is attractive for companies because they:

• only have to pay interest at first, no return of capital
• and can often offer a lower interest rate because the conversion option is attractive

What this means in concrete terms:

• BICO originally had convertible bonds with a volume of over SEK 1.5 billion
• SEK 394 million have already been repurchased in 2024 & 2025
• Currently open (as of Q1 2025): SEK 1.106 billion (114.5 million USD)
• Maturity date: March 2026

Why is this an issue for investors

1 . Repayment or dilution:

If BICO cannot repay the amount, new shares must be issued, this is called dilution because your stake in the company decreases.

2 . Cash flow burden:

If BICO wants to repay the amount from its own resources, it needs a lot of liquidity, which can slow down other investments.

3 . Refinancing risk:

If the market is weak in 2025/26, refinancing could become expensive or not possible at all.

What is the current situation?

Positive:

• BICO currently has SEK 684m in cash (USD 71m)
• The sale of MatTek & Visikol will put BICO in a net cash position in Q2 2025

• Target: Early extinguishment of convertible bond 2026

Statement on financing / repayment

CFO Jacob Thornberg said:

"The closing of the divestment of MatTek and Visikol for USD 80 million is expected to take place during Q2 2025 [...]

The proceeds from the transaction will be used to resolve the outstanding convertible bond, which matures in March 2026."

Translated:

The entire proceeds from the sale of MatTek & Visikol to Sartorius (USD 80 million) are earmarked for the repayment of the convertible bond.

Management's assessment of the financial position:

"We expect to move into a net cash position during Q2 2025."

This means:

• After the transaction, BICO will have more cash and cash equivalents than debt
• These funds should enable repayment in 2026 without further dilution

Assessment: How credible is this?

Positive:

• BICO shows clear plan: repayment of convertible bond is top priority
• Cash position Q1: SEK 684m
• Sale of MatTek & Visikol: approx. SEK 870m (converted)

-> Repayment can be financed if no new setback occurs

But:

• The operating business is not yet making a stable contribution to financing
• New investments or declining sales could jeopardize the plan
• Market environment remains volatile (interest rates, project delays, etc.)

➡️ Management is actively pursuing the plan to redeem the convertible bond in full before maturity in 2026 without dilution.

The sale of MatTek & Visikol has freed up concrete capital for this.

The direction is right, but BICO remains a risky stock with operational debt.

More on profitability:

In the Q1 2025 Earnings Call BICO's management did not give a specific date for break-even or profitability

... which is typical for growth companies with highly volatile project business.

What was said instead?

On profitability in Q1 itself:

EBITDA was negative (SEK -12m), but:

"Adjusted EBITDA was in line with Q1 2024 due to the positive development in Life Science Solutions and Bioprinting."

-> Improvement due to mix effects and operational measures

• The positive margins from Q4 2024 could not be maintained, mainly due to Lab Automation weakness.

Long-term statements?

No specific annual figure or guidance on profitability. But:

"We have launched a new operating model [...] to achieve improved commercial as well as operational efficiencies."

"We will continue to optimize our cost base and drive efficiency through integration."

Interpretation:

• Management is actively working on profitability

The focus is on the short term:

• Cash flow
• Efficiency gains
• Segment focus

Butunfortunately no clear words like: "We plan to be profitable in 2025 or 2026." 😬

Will BICO be the company that prints organs, or is it more likely to be taken over?

Technologically, BICO is very well positioned today when it comes to bioprinting infrastructure:

• Hardware (BIO X printers)
• Bioinks (cell-compatible inks)
• Software & automation
• Worldwide customer base

ButPrinting fully functional organs for clinical applications is a gigantic leap, not only technologically, but also in regulatory, medical and logistical terms. This is what is needed:

• billions in long-term capital
• Clinical studies over many years
• integration into healthcare systems and transplant networks

These are competencies that are more common in corporations like Johnson & Johnson $JJ, Medtronic $MDT (+0,01 %) , GE Healthcare $GEHC (-1,52 %)
, Siemens Healthineers $SHL (+0,7 %) or Thermo Fisher $TMO not a smaller platform provider like BICO.

Which is more likely?

1 . BICO remains the "toolmaker" of the bioprinting world:

Just like ASML for semiconductors or Illumina for genomics, but without building drugs/organs itself.

2 . BICO will be taken over when the topic becomes clinically concrete:

For example, when the first major organ projects enter the clinical phase, it is likely that a giant will strike to secure access to the technology.

3 . BICO remains an enabler, but not the final provider of clinical bioprinted organs

When organs are actually printed, will BICO become the global market leader?

🏷️ Unlikely.

➡️ More realistic is that BICO becomes one of the key technology suppliers or is taken over by one of the big players beforehand.

This can still be highly attractive for investors. After all, whoever supplies technology will be needed, regardless of who ends up operating on the patient.

Should we now focus on BICO or rather on a large corporation with bioprinting potential? 🤔

1 . Buy BICO for speculative returns

Pros:

• Favorable valuation after the "crash/hype" (more than 80 % below all-time high)
• One of the technology leaders in bioprinting
• Strategic focus, efficiency program, divestments, clear direction
• Enabler position in a highly scalable future market
• Possible takeover candidate = extra share price potential

Contra:

• Not yet profitable, operational risks exist
• Market for organs is still many years away
• Capital structure (convertible bond) is a medium-term uncertainty factor
• If large investors fail to materialize, BICO could be technologically overtaken

2 . Alternatively: back a large corporation for more stability

Which big players have the potential to drive bioprinting forward (or take over BICO)?

Sartorius

• Already has close cooperation with BICO (and acquired MatTek/Visikol)
• Focus on cell biology, diagnostics & laboratory automation
• Strong in APAC region and with biotech customers

-> Best-case candidate for takeover or joint venture

Thermo Fisher Scientific

• Global leader in laboratory equipment, genomics, diagnostics
• Great financial strength, active M&A strategy
• So far, however, more focused on classic diagnostics

-> Comes into play when bioprinting is more closely integrated into pharmaceutical production

Danaher

• Parent company of brands such as Cytiva and Beckman Coulter
• Very active in diagnostics and research technology
• M&A-driven, high margin focus

-> Could strike when the market matures, but rather late and strategically

3D Systems / Stratasys

• Directly active in 3D printing
• Have already acquired bioprinting units (e.g. Allevi)
• Fluctuating in strategy & implementation

-> Riskier than classic medtechs, but a direct bioprinting play

Personal classification: substance or science fiction on credit?

What makes more strategic sense? Which investment is "the right one"?

• High potential return and very high risk tolerance: Then BICO

• Takeover speculation: Then BICO or e.g. Sartorius

• Stable yield and dividend: Then Sartorius, Dabaher or Thermo Fisher

• Bet on "market leader of the future": Then wait and see, today there is no clear bioprinting world leader

OR

Combination strategy:

I invest a small position in BICO as a "moonshot", combine this with a solid underlying position in Sartorius or Thermo Fisher and cover the technology and protect the capital if BICO fails.

The two underlying positions mentioned can of course also represent a global ETF.

My personal assessment of BICO currently fluctuates between cautious optimism and realistic doubt.

On the one hand, I see a clear technological lead and a strategy that, unlike a year or two ago, now appears more well thought-out and focused. Partnerships with established players such as Sartorius also give me the feeling that BICO is not operating alone in a vacuum.

On the other hand, the operational foundation is still shaky. Profitability has not been achieved and the issue of the 2026 convertible bond hangs over the company.

Without sufficient cash flow or fresh capital, the ambitious vision could stumble, and despite all the enthusiasm for bioprinting and automation, we should always be aware of this.

BICO is not a stock for quiet nights, but for visionaries with patience it may be a ticket to the future of medicine.

I am currently waiting for an entry opportunity with a good feeling. The goal could be a portfolio share of up to approx. 3-4%, which then remains in place and is reduced in the future through portfolio growth without selling.

Thanks for reading! 🤝

______________

Sources:

[1] https://storage.mfn.se/5a3030c0-d13b-4177-80d0-94da59c7302d/bico-q1-2025-eng.pdf

[2] https://bico.events.inderes.com/q1-report-2025/register

/ https://web.quartr.com/link/companies/4484/events/247443/transcript?targetTime=0.0

More:

https://bico.com/investors/

https://www.sartorius.com/en/company/investor-relations

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BICO:SS

Pfizer $PFE (-3,31 %) has discontinued the development of its oral weight loss pill Danuglipron. The reason: patients in clinical trials suffered from side effects such as nausea and vomiting. Although the drug was originally seen as a potential competitor to Wegovy and Ozempic, Pfizer no longer sees any commercial potential due to its poor tolerability. Instead, the company intends to concentrate on other active ingredients for weight reduction, such as GLP-1-based therapies. The decision marks a setback in Pfizer's strategy to gain a stronger foothold in the booming market for obesity drugs.

Mehr dazu bei MarketScreener

The news is based on what I personally consider to be reputable sources. No investment advice. Follow me for more updates!

In this article, I would like to give my personal assessment and opinion of some established pharmaceutical companies.

As a naive and uninformed person, I always believed that the pharmaceutical sector would play a major role in the future.

Now I have taken a closer look at the companies on the basis of fundamental key figures and have come to a very sobering conclusion.

However, I only evaluate the past and draw conclusions for the future from the past. I cannot evaluate and assess something like a pipeline because I lack the understanding and specialist knowledge.

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I looked at the following companies:

Bayer $BAYN (+2,62 %)

Eli Lilly $LLY (-2,36 %)

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-1,01 %)

Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+0,8 %)

Roche $ROG (-0,95 %)

Pfizer $PFE (-3,31 %)

Merck $MRK (-2,31 %)

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Let's start with the most popular title:

$NOVO B (+0,8 %)

Novo Nordisk has the best fundamentals of all the stocks we looked at. The growth is right, the margins have been consistently above 30% since 2013 (unique selling point) and the return on equity is very high.

However, there has been disproportionately strong sales growth in the last 3 years. Probably due to GLP-1?

The question here is whether this growth can be maintained and whether sales can remain at this level? These uncertainties, as well as the regularization of GLP-1, could partly explain the fall in the share price in recent months. The valuation ratios are still quite sporty, but could this be justified in view of growth and margins? The quarterly figures will be very interesting.

I will start a savings plan and continue to monitor the shares.

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$BAYN (+2,62 %)

Bayer AG has lost over 60% of its share price since the beginning of 2023. In my naivety, I thought that the share was now attractively valued. In fact, it has a price/sales ratio of just 0.47% and yet I would not invest.

If you look at the balance sheets of the last 10 years and further back, growth and profitability, you can see that the share has always been fundamentally weak. At best, it may be interesting for a trade, but I would not invest.

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$LLY (-2,36 %)

Eli Lilly is basically a good company with solid figures. However, there have been one or two ups and downs over the years and balance sheets. If the company had invested in 2017 despite the poor figures at the time, it would be up several hundred percent today.

2024 was a record year for Eli Lilly with a 32 % increase in sales to around USD 45 billion. The main reason for this growth was the strong sales figures for diabetes drugs and weight loss injections.

In my opinion, the share is heavily overvalued despite its qualities and lags behind Novo Nordisk in many respects (fundamentally). I expect a significant correction here. This may not occur until 2026 or 27, but a price/earnings ratio of over 70 is in no way justified.

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$JNJ (-1,01 %)

I think Johnson & Johnson is a conglomerate, as it also sells consumer goods. It has little to no growth, quite good profitability and a dividend of over 3%🤑.

I guess you don't necessarily have to own this share, as it doesn't stand out from the others in any way (but it does, it beats Bayer, for example, across the board) but it could possibly be a defensive stock for stability, if you value that sort of thing, and the dividend could also be a decisive factor if you buy it at the right time.

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$PFE (-3,31 %)

Pfizer is clearly a corona profiteer that achieved record sales in 2021 and 22. After Corona, the awakening and a share price drop of over 50 %.

From 2010-2020, sales even declined and margins ranged from 12% to over 40%. I suspect that the turn around to the pre-corona level could succeed, so my price target is $29-44.

Here, too, I do not see a quality company, not a must-have and at best a trade or the dividend, which is currently over 6%, could also be interesting here.

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$ROG (-0,95 %)

I thought only gold and chocolate came from Switzerland. That's not the case, because there is also Roche, not Ferrero Rocher but the pharmaceutical company. You would have to read up on this and find out more, because there seem to have been serious capital measures since 2022, which make the fundamental data look very negative.

So it looks (if the data from my data provider is correct) that Roche has not been profitable since 22. Operating profit in 2024 has fallen to a level similar to the lows of 2015 and 17. Cash flow and return on capital are negative and there has actually been no sales growth since 2019.

If you look at the company from 2011-2021, they were actually quite solidly positioned.

I don't want to make a clear judgment on Roche because I don't think I have enough information to be able to correctly interpret these figures for the last three years, because what looks like a pile of 💩 (chocolate) could also be an opportunity. But I don't know.

Incidentally, it looks very similar at Novartis $NOVN (-0,96 %) looks very similar and so I am encouraged that there may be a political geographic background that needs to be identified in order to value these stocks correctly.

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$MRK (-2,31 %)

Merck shares are in the midfield. From 2010-2018, the figures even declined. Continuous growth has been observed since 2018, with record sales in the last 3 years in particular.

The share appears to be relatively cheaply valued with a P/E ratio of less than 14.

For me, the question remains whether this profitability is sustainable and whether a strong year will not be followed by another weak one. Personally, the risk/return ratio for Merck would be too low for me.

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My conclusion:

I will keep my distance from the pharmaceutical sector, as I am not in a position to assess a pipeline and there could always be medical breakthroughs that I am unable to predict.

On the other hand, expected successes can also fail to materialize or lead to failures and economic losses due to official regulations.

In addition, research is very time and capital intensive and there is no guarantee of success.

I will be satisfied with the share of the pharmaceutical sector in my broadly diversified ETF and, contrary to the above conclusion, start a savings plan on Novo Nordisk 🤓

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Thanks for reading and I welcome additions, corrections and opinions, but please don't be so hard on me. 😇

$SAN (-0,08 %)
$NOVO B (+0,8 %)
$PFE (-3,31 %)

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Sanofi's hemophilia therapy on Friday. This paves the way for a treatment method for patients with rare blood clotting disorders. The therapy, which is marketed under the name Qfitlia, is new to the spectrum. However, Novo Nordsik and Pfizer are also active in this market.

Qfitlia is a therapy that is administered under the skin. It is intended to help prevent bleeding and reduce antithrombin levels. Qfitlia is approved for haemophilia patients aged 12 and over. According to estimates by the National Hemophilia Foundation, there are 30,000 to 33,000 haemophilia patients in the USA and around one million people worldwide are affected by the disease.

According to Reuters, the newly approved therapy is the first in its class to lower antithrombin levels and is suitable for people with haemophilia A or B with or without inhibitors.

Compared to the already approved therapies from Novo Nordisk and Pfizer, the Sanofi therapy has to be administered much less frequently, which makes treatment easier. Specifically, Qfitlia will only need to be administered every two months, while treatments with Pfizer's Hympavzi injection need to be administered weekly and Novo Nordisk's Alhemo even daily.

"Today's approval of Qfitlia is a significant step forward for hemophilia patients, as the therapy needs to be administered less frequently than other existing options," said FDA member Tanya Wroblewski as part of the approval decision.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/sanofi-fda-gibt-gruenes-licht-so-reagieren-die-aktien-der-rivalen--20377529.html

$PFE (-3,31 %) thrown out with approx. -24%.

Reallocation to something more sensible.

If the 🔪 falls, we buy more via a savings plan.

In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.

Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.

__________

In this post:

• Influence on inflation
• New tariffs in force
• Reaction of the countries
• Consequences for the global economy
• Winners & losers
• Investment opportunities

__________

The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].

The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.

The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.

I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.

After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.

A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:

💰 Influence on inflation

On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:

The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.

Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.

🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned

As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:

• 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada
• 10% on imports from China

According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]

But this is just the beginning:

From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:

• computer chips
• pharmaceuticals
• Steel, aluminum and copper
• Oil and gas imports (but only from February 18 with reduced 10% tariffs so as not to burden US petrol prices immediately).

🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation

Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.

Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:

"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"

The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:

"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"

🔄 Canada's reaction:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".

The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:

• 1️⃣ Targeted punitive tariffs on US products coming from Republican states (e.g. orange juice, whiskey, ketchup, peanut butter and motorcycles).

• 2️⃣ Tariffs on steel products and machine parts from the USA.

• 3️⃣ Escalation: Stop exports of oil, gas and electricity to the USA

However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.

Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:

• The new tariffs could increase the cost of living of an average US household by 800 dollars per year.
• The oil and gas tariffs could increase the price of petrol in the USA by up to 20 cents per liter.

But Trump remains firm:

"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."

🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy

(a) Rising prices in the USA

• Technology & electronicsHigher chip prices are hitting companies such as Apple $AAPL (+0,38 %) , Dell $DELL and HP $HPQ (-0,04 %) as many of their components come from China.

• Healthcare costs: Pharmaceutical companies such as CVS Health $CVS (-1,36 %) and Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA (+0,4 %) are facing higher purchasing costs.

• Construction & InfrastructureHigher steel prices are weighing on companies such as Lennar $LEN (-0,99 %) D.R. Horton $DHI (-1,26 %) and Caterpillar $CAT (+0,69 %) .

(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?

• China could impose tariffs on US products, which could affect e.g. Archer Daniels Midland $ADM (+1,22 %) Boeing $BA (+1,23 %) and Qualcomm $QCOM (+0,09 %) would be affected.

• The EU could make US imports more expensive, which would affect Tesla $TSLA (+4,92 %) , Ford $F (+0,88 %) and General Motors $GM (+0,07 %) could be harmed.

(c) Effects on the stock market

• Volatility is increasing as there is uncertainty about the consequences for various industries.

• Particularly affected: Technology and automotive stocks with global supply chains.

🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?

Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs

US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper

• Nucor $NUE (-0,42 %) , U.S. Steel $X (+1,97 %) and Freeport-McMoRan $FCX (+0,21 %) could benefit as foreign competition becomes more expensive as a result of the tariffs.

Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies

• Pfizer $PFE (-3,31 %) Moderna $MRNA (-0,69 %) and Eli Lilly $LLY (-2,36 %) could gain market share.

Energy companies with US production

• ExxonMobil $XOM (+0,95 %) , Chevron$CVX (+0,59 %) and Expand Energy $CHK (+2,18 %) could benefit from rising prices for US oil and gas.

Chip manufacturers with US production

• Intel $INTC (+1,17 %) and Texas Instruments$TXN (+3,56 %) have US factories and could gain market share.

😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs

Chip manufacturers with global supply chains

• Apple $AAPL (+0,38 %) NVIDIA $NVDA (-0,83 %) , AMD $AMD (+0,9 %) are dependent on Asian imports and could see higher production costs.

Car manufacturers with global suppliers

• Tesla $TSLA (+4,92 %) , Ford $F (+0,88 %) , General Motors $GM (+0,07 %) are under pressure because components from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive.

Companies with strong export business

• Boeing $BA (+1,23 %) and Caterpillar $CAT (+0,69 %) suffer from possible retaliatory tariffs.

US retailers with a high import share

• Walmart $WMT (-0,87 %) , Target $TGT (-0,85 %) and Nike $NKE (-0,91 %) could have to pass on rising prices to customers.

🧠 Possible investment strategies

Favor defensive sectors:

• Utilities (e.g. NextEra Energy $NEE (+2 %) Duke Energy $DUK (-0,91 %) ) and healthcare companies (e.g. UnitedHealth $UNH (-1,49 %) , Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (-1,01 %) ) remain more stable.

Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":

• Intel $INTC (+1,17 %) , Eli Lilly $LLY (-2,36 %) , Nucor $NUE (-0,42 %) could benefit in the long term.

Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?

With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.

❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?

Thanks for reading! 🤝

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Sources:

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-finance-chartbook-44-charts-that-tell-the-story-of-markets-and-the-economy-to-start-2025-105856766.html

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-charts-show-why-markets-are-skittish-about-trumps-tariff-policy-144318249.html

[3] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/usa-unter-trump/trumps-verhaengt-zoelle-gegen-kanada-mexiko-und-china-110269990.html?

[4]

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2025-01/64440108-trump-usa-werden-ab-mitte-februar-zoelle-auf-computerchips-stahl-sowie-oel-und-gasimporte-erheben-015.htm

[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html