Pfizer

Is $PFE (+2,63 %) a turnaround candidate?

After the hype surrounding the corona vaccines, Pfizer is in crisis: the share price has collapsed, sales are weakening and new blockbusters are a long time coming. But what is the real situation? Is there any hope of a turnaround - or will the shares remain a construction site?

A look at the current situation

Pfizer is in a difficult situation. After peaking during the pandemic, the share price has stabilized at around 25 euros, a far cry

far from the peak values of over 40 euros. Sales in the third quarter of 2024 amounted to USD 17.7 billion - an increase of 31% compared to the previous year. However, excluding the COVID-19 products Paxlovid and Comirnaty, growth remains moderate at 14%. Pfizer is struggling to stabilize its sales in other areas, while older drugs such as Ibrance (-13%) or Xeljanz (-36%) are increasingly losing market share.

The dividend yield of around 6.5 % appears attractive at first glance, but is it sustainable? Pfizer paid out USD 7.1 billion in dividends in the first nine months of the year, while spending on research and development amounted to USD 7.8 billion. The dividend is currently still covered, but is heavily dependent on future growth impetus.

Where is the money currently coming from?

Pfizer continues to generate a large part of its revenue from products that played a key role during the pandemic. The most important sources of revenue in the third quarter of 2024 were

• 1. Paxlovid2.7 billion USD (+ 2.5 billion USD compared to the previous year).
• 2. Comirnaty (COVID-19 vaccine)1.4 billion USD (+9 %).
• 3. Eliquis (anticoagulant): USD 1.6 billion (+9 %).
• 4. Prevnar (pneumococcal vaccine): USD 1.8 billion.
• 5. Vyndaqel (treatment of transthyretin amyloidosis): USD 1.4 billion (+63 %).
• 6. Ibrance (breast cancer treatment): USD 1.1 billion (-13 %).
• 7. Xtandi (prostate cancer): USD 561 million (+28 %).
• 8. Padcev (new cancer therapy): USD 409 million.
• 9. Nurtec ODT/Vydura (migraine): USD 337 million (+45%).
• 10. Abrysvo (RSV vaccine): USD 356 million.

Comparing these figures with the previous year, it is clear that COVID-19 products continue to play a significant role, while other areas need to grow more strongly to fill the gap.

The pipeline: Hope in 108 acts?

With 108 projects in the pipeline, Pfizer has a promising basis, at least on paper. This is broken down as follows:

• Phase 1: 46 projects.
• Phase 2: 28 projects.
• Phase 3: 30 projects.
• Phase 4 (registration): 4 projects.

Products in registration

ADCETRIS (brentuximab vedotin): A therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The global market for DLBCL therapies is estimated to be worth around USD 5 billion by 2027.

COVID-19 vaccine (in collaboration with $BNTX (+5,44 %)
): Extension of approval for children aged 5 to 11 years in the USA. The market for COVID-19 vaccines remains significant, particularly with a focus on younger age groups.

COVID-19 vaccine (in collaboration with
$BNTX (+5,44 %)
): Extension of approval for children aged 6 months to 4 years in the USA. Vaccination of this age group is crucial to contain the pandemic.

NGENLA (Somatrogon): Treatment for growth hormone deficiency in adults (in the EU as an orphan drug classified). The market for growth hormone therapies is estimated to be worth around USD 4 billion by 2025.

Although these products offer significant sales potential, it is unlikely that they alone will be sufficient for a complete turnaround of Pfizer. A sustained recovery requires a continuous pipeline of innovative products, successful launches and effective market strategies. However, the products and acquisitions can make an important contribution to the stabilization and future growth of the company.

Blockbuster of the future?

Progress in the areas of oncology, vaccines and innovative drugs such as weight loss products are particularly important. Pfizer is investing heavily in research and development, with a budget of USD 11 to 12 billion for 2024. Some of the most promising projects are

Danugliprone (Phase 2): A GLP-1 agonist for weight loss. But Pfizer is struggling with problems here: The original twice-daily formulation was discontinued due to severe side effects - nausea and vomiting - nausea and vomiting. The sufferer may think with a twinkle in his eye, 'actually works great'. But there must be gentler ways to lose weight. Pfizer is now concentrating on a once-daily dose. Results have not yet been communicated, but should come in 2024. The market for weight loss drugs is huge and could grow to over USD 50 billion by 2030, but the competition is fierce. $NOVO B (+3 %) (Wegovy, Ozempic) $LLY (+0,49 %) (Orforglipron) are already leading the way here.

mRNA combivaccines (COVID-19 and influenza - phase 3)This vaccine is in phase 3 and, if successfully approved, could become a sales driver as the market for combined vaccines is estimated at over USD 10 billion.

Oncology therapies (phase 3): Pfizer is working on several cancer therapies, including Talzenna (prostate cancer) and Braftovi/Mektovi (lung cancer). Both are in phase 3 and could generate initial sales from 2025.

Abrysvo (RSV vaccine - Approved)This vaccine is already approved and addresses a market that is expected to grow to over 8 billion USD by 2027.

The challenges: Competition and problems

Despite its promising pipeline, Pfizer faces a number of obstacles. Especially in the area of weight loss drugs, the competition from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is immense. With Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) and Orforglipron, both companies already have established products or candidates that have performed excellently in clinical trials. Pfizer must make rapid progress here to avoid falling further behind.

Another problem is the dependence on COVID-19 products. While Paxlovid and Comirnaty continue to generate sales in the short term, demand is declining sharply as the pandemic increasingly fades into the background. Without new blockbusters, it will be difficult to compensate for these revenues.

Conclusion: Is Pfizer a turnaround candidate?

The answer is: Yes, but with conditions. With innovative products such as Danuglipron and new cancer therapies, the pipeline certainly offers potential, but Pfizer is under immense pressure. The competition is strong and time is running out - especially in the field of weight loss drugs. The dividend is also only secure in the long term if new products are successfully launched on the market.

Pfizer has the resources to achieve a turnaround, but investors need patience. If the company achieves initial success with its new drugs in 2025 or 2026, the share price could recover. Until then, however, it remains a shaky candidate - with a lot of risk, but also a lot of potential.

If you've made it this far, I look forward to seeing you on the website or on Instagram. Thank you :)

Continue on my website

https://www.dividenden-rechner.de/

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(Delayed) portfolio review October 2024 - A month with 5 share sales and one ETF sale

Even though October was just over two weeks ago, it feels like a different time. Germany still had an (unspeakable) traffic light government, in America the race for the White House was still open and a phone call between Scholz and Putin was unthinkable.

And even though November has been much more exciting on the stock market than October so far, October was a month of major changes from a personal perspective.

Apart from stock market investments, we are slowly starting to think about building a house. As a result, for the first time in a long time I made several sales in my portfolio and therefore also cleared out a little.

Previously this year, there were only 2 sales in my portfolio: at NVIDIA I took my stake out in February and since then have only let the profits run. In addition, in March I had Encavis after the takeover bid.

There were a total of 6 sales in October. For just under €7,000 I sold my China ETF which has recovered well over the last few months.

On the equity side, I have now sold most of the Corona Hype stocks and Match, Atlassian, Shopify and Block have been sold. In addition, I have also Pfizer sold. That was another €8,000, leaving only Sea from the Corona hype times, where I will remain invested for the time being, as it covers a completely different region geographically with Southeast Asia.

My savings quota will therefore be significantly reduced for the time being due to the upcoming house building project. From just under €1,500 to €2,000, it will only be €500-600 per month for the time being

Monthly view:

In total, October was +1,7%. This corresponds to price gains of ~5.000€.

The MSCI World (benchmark) was +0.9% and the S&P500 +1.5%

Winners & losers:

A look at the winners and losers is part of the usual picture:

On the winning side is, as so often NVIDIA is at the top with almost €3,000 in share price gains. It is followed by TSMC, Bitcoin, Alphabet and Palo Alto Networks with gains of €900-1,000 each.

On the loser side above all ASML made its contribution with price losses of almost €1,400. This was followed by Bechtle, Thermo Fisher, LVMH and Nike a broader mix of stocks that have not necessarily performed well recently. Nevertheless, all 5 loser stocks are still part of my savings plans.

The performance-neutral movements in October were just under €4,600. The sales proceeds are all still in cash accounts at the moment, so they have not yet flowed out of the assets. There will be a larger dip here at some point in the future.

Current year:

My performance in the current year is +27,5% and thus above my benchmark, the MSCI World with 23.7%.

In total, my portfolio currently stands at ~331.000€. This corresponds to an absolute growth of ~€79,000 in the current year 2023. ~53.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~3.000€ from dividends / interest and ~22.000€ from additional investments.

Dividend:

• Dividends in October were 32% above the previous year at ~€150
• TSMC is in the lead with a (gross) dividend of €30 every 3 months. TSMC has already raised the dividend for next year by 30% again
• In the current year, the dividends after 10 months are +25% over the first 9 months of 2023 at ~2.350€

Buys & sells:

• I bought in October for approx. 1.500€
• As always, my savings plans were executed:
• Blue chipsNovo Nordisk $NOVO B (+3 %) LVMH $MC (+1,27 %) Apple $AAPL (+1,26 %) Home Depot $HD (+2,91 %) Microsoft $MSFT (+1,55 %) Nike $NKE (+3,44 %) Starbucks $SBUX (+3,28 %) Stryker $SYK (-0,47 %) Texas Instruments $TXN (+1,13 %)
• 
  GrowthCrowdstrike $CRWD (+4,74 %) MercadoLibre $MELI (+2,36 %)
• 
  ETFsMSCI World $XDWD (+1,02 %) Nikkei 225 $XDJP (+1,38 %) and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP (+1,55 %)
• 
  Crypto: Bitcoin $BTC (-0,26 %) and Ethereum $ETH (-2,15 %)
• 
  Sales as mentioned, there were some in October with Match $MTCH (+1,57 %) Pfizer $PFE (+2,63 %) Block $SQ (+0,18 %) Shopify $SHOP (+1,18 %) Atlassian $TEAM Invesco MSCI China All-shares $MCHS (-2,02 %)

Target 2024:

My goal for this year is to reach €300,000 in my portfolio. Due to the extremely positive market development in the current year, my portfolio already stands at ~€331,000 at the end of October.

As of mid-November and thanks to the Trump rally, my portfolio is currently approaching €350,000 and was even slightly above this level a few days ago. However, with a larger cash portion that will sooner or later flow into financing as equity.

#dividends

#dividende

#rückblick

#depotupdate

#aktie

#stocks

#etfs

#crypto

#personalstrategy

Earnings next week 🚀

$AMZN (+0,2 %)

$AMD (+1,27 %)

$SOFI (+4,38 %)

$MSFT (+1,55 %)

$AAPL (+1,26 %)

$META (+0,15 %)

$GOOGL (+0,04 %)

$INTC (+1,17 %)

$PYPL (+2,85 %)

$LLY (+0,49 %)

$F (+3,98 %)

$SNAP (+8,21 %)

$CMG (+4,01 %)

$COIN (+4,25 %)

$UBER (+3,37 %)

$BP. (+1,3 %)

$MCD (+1,29 %)

$HOOD (+4,3 %)

$PFE (+2,63 %)

$V (+0,68 %)

$NOVA (+12,17 %)

$ETSY (+1,93 %)

$ON (+2,82 %)

$FUBO

$PTON (+4,22 %)

$TMDX (-4,34 %)

$FSLR (+2,56 %)

$RIOT (+5,23 %)

$ROKU (+1,36 %)

$RCL

$CVNA (+4,77 %)

$CVX (+1,06 %)

$CAT (+2,62 %)

$HUM (+5,17 %)

$CDNS (+2,17 %)

$SBUX (+3,28 %)

$WM (+1,84 %)

$NXT

$THC

$JBLU (-0,17 %)

$CROX (+5,35 %)

$XOM (+0,52 %)

$MRK (-0,21 %)

$RDDT

$PHIA (+1,05 %)

$VFC (+5,76 %)

$RIG

$COP (+0,39 %)

$EPD

$RMBS (+3,5 %)

The enemy of the best is often the good.

I have these ETFs in my portfolio:

$TDIV (+1,07 %)

$GGRP (+1,55 %)

$FUSD (+1,15 %)

$FGEQ (+1,14 %)

Some, if not all, have outperformed the MSCI World at times.

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At the moment they are all about the same weighting and should be increased further. While I am trying to implement a growth strategy with equities, these ETFs are intended to generate passive income.

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Objectively speaking, I would have to sell the $FUSD (+1,15 %) as it further increases the US share and overlaps heavily with at least two of the other ETFs. In other words, it reduces diversification in all respects.

But on the other hand $FUSD (+1,15 %) also the one with the best past return and will probably remain so in the future.

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One approach could be to take the US weighting and overlaps into account in the ETF weighting of the portfolio and implement it as follows, for example:

$TDIV (+1,07 %) 40%

$GGRP (+1,55 %) 30%

$FGEQ (+1,14 %) 15%

$FUSD (+1,15 %) 15%

If the ETFs were weighted in this way, the following allocations would result:

Countries/Regions:

USA 56.4%

Canada 4.4%

Europe 33.2%

Asia 5.4%

Top 10 weighting:

$MSFT (+1,55 %) 3%

$AAPL (+1,26 %) 3%

$VZ (+2,09 %) 2,3%

$CVX (+1,06 %) 2,1%

$ROG (+1,15 %) 2%

$NVDA (-2,33 %) 1,9%

$PFE (+2,63 %) 1,7%

$HSBA (+0,78 %) 1,6%

$IBM (+1,29 %) 1,4%

$AVGO (+0,78 %) 1,4%

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What do you think of this allocation example? Do you have any suggestions for improvement or comments?