Hello everyone,

I have looked at the stocks in my portfolio with my new but still incomplete knowledge of fundamental analysis and am of the opinion that some stocks are heavily overvalued.

Perhaps they will fall back to their fundamental value soon or at some point?

Yes, actually this is bound to happen in the long term.

So I'm wondering whether I should sell now and invest the capital in fundamentally favorable stocks or in my ETFs?

I also find it interesting that some stocks were already overvalued when I bought them and some only became overvalued later.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In my opinion, some of the stocks in my portfolio are overvalued:

(not exhaustive)

Palantir $PLTR (-0,43 %)

Ferrari $RACE (-0,16 %)

Rheinmetall $RHM (+1,09 %)

Agree Realty $ADC (+1,05 %)

visas $V (+2,42 %)

Hermes $RMS (-0,39 %)

Microsoft $MSFT (-0,62 %)

Nu 😅 $NU (-0,84 %)

Asml $ASML (-1,96 %)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the other hand, I think they are favorably valued at the moment:

(some are not really cheap, but maybe worth buying)

Amazon $AMZN (-0,68 %)

Abc $GOOGL (+0,65 %)

Sofi $SOFI (-1,35 %)

Lockheed Martin $LMT (+1,09 %)

Berkshire $BRK.B (+1,28 %)

Caterpillar $CAT (+0,83 %)

Occidental Petroleum $OXY (+2,03 %)

Rio Tinto $RIO (+0 %)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think I probably wouldn't regret it if I just sold everything and put it in the $HMWO (+0,73 %) and put it in the But I enjoy individual shares and the risk is limited. Still, I would like to know how you read valuations and translate them into action decisions and what you think about my specific situation and would possibly act.

$PLTR (-0,43 %)

I am and will remain invested until further notice.

I am aware of the ethical problems with this company, but I justify this by the fact that the technology can be used just as well for just purposes as for authoritarian goals, and it is not yet clear which side Pltr will end up on.

Ethical investing:

An impossibility?

Overrated anyway?

Difficult, but possible?

https://youtu.be/KipDBa4bTl8?si=T415Os4r0_jPBZod

Hello dear GQ community,

almost a month ago I already presented my portfolio and my investment case. (those interested can take another quick look at it)

I have now experienced the first correction of my investment career and can say that, yes, it hurts to look at the portfolio with all the red figures, but holding on to the fact that I am convinced of the companies in the long term has kept me strong up to this point. Only time will tell whether this correction was particularly strong or weak. True to the motto "red means supply", I have tried to use my uninvested budget for additional purchases and new positions.

I may have too many different positions for some people's taste and still have too large a stake in the US, tech and financial sectors. Overall, I am simply a fan of picking companies that fulfill three conditions:

- consistent dividend growth over the last 10 years

- long-term share price growth (depending on how long the company has been on the stock market, but if I don't have green figures over the maximum period, I leave you out)

- preferably a P/E ratio of less than 20 (with exceptions)

And generally in line with my case, a 3+% dividend.

In the unknown future, I will continue to hold my small positions of $PLTR (-0,43 %) , $BLK (+0,91 %) , $NVDA (-0,66 %) and $TGT (+0,98 %) (these were my first 4 purchases of 25€ each without any idea, Palantir compensates the losses of the other 3 quite nicely). From $AAPL (+2,6 %) in the long term, but it does not yet play a major role in my immediate savings.

By the end of the year, I will be saving a further €750 a month via a savings plan, split evenly between $PETR3 (-0,35 %) , $MUV2 (-0,41 %) , $7203 (+0,43 %) , $ENEL (-0,5 %) , $HTGC (+1,08 %) and $ALV (-0,77 %). With the aim of balancing out the inequality somewhat.

In general, I am very happy to have discovered this platform, as I have gathered many useful tips and experiences, so thank you for that.

I am always grateful for your opinions, tips and suggestions. Thanks for reading.

Presumably because the New York Times reports on the Pentagon's war plans against China, which Musk was apparently briefed on at the Pentagon today.

In a military conflict between the two economic powers USA and China, the first "Line of Contact" would be a digital one: cyber attacks.

And even if only hypothetical scenarios are reported, this will probably already lead to an intensification of the constant mutual cyber attacks. Information is key.

• Cyberark $CYBR (-3,66 %)
• Palantir Tech $PLTR (-0,43 %)
• Check Point Software Technologies $CHKP (+0 %)
• Crowdstrike $CRWD (-0,56 %)
• VeriSign $VRSN (+0 %)
• Zscaler $ZS (-2,96 %)
• Okta $OKTA (-1,89 %)
• Cloudflare $NET (-0,97 %)
• Fortinet $FTNT (+0,29 %)
• Cisco Systems $CSCO (+0 %)
• Palo Alto Networks $PANW (-0,37 %)
• Akamai Technologies $AKAM (+0 %)
• BlackBerry $BB (-4,12 %)
• NetScout Systems $NTCT (+0 %)
• CommVault Systems $CVLT (+0 %)

Sources:

• The Pentagon set up a briefing for Musk on plans for a potential war with China.
• NYTimes Liveblog: Trump Administration Live Updates: Trump Rejects Idea of Letting Musk See Secret Plans for War With China

#newyorktimes
#china
#usa
#trump
#pentagon
#elonmusk

Alternative. Must look further. I'd love a recommendation.

However, I wanted to show you this chart. I have seen this chart many times and I am so afraid that all stocks that have risen sharply in recent months will soon look like this regression to the mean. To the buy game:

$TSLA (-0,68 %)
$HIMS (+1,19 %)
$RHM (+1,09 %)
$NVDA (-0,66 %)
$PLTR (-0,43 %)

Many stocks have also already laid out something like this. Disaster. That's why ETFs might be better in general. Broadly diversified and inexpensive. (I stole that saying). But apart from this catastrophic, physical law of nature. What are your recommendations as an alternative commodity to gold?

According to my research in Germany more or less the following are only tradable:

Gold (do not want to have)

Silver (don't want to have, unless there is a strong argument for it. Then I might change my mind)

Aluminum

cotton

Gasoline

Lead

Diesel

Natural gas

Gas Oil

Heating oil

Coffee

Cocoa

Copper

Live cattle

Lean pigs

Maize

Oil

Nickel

Palladium (@Dirty30 's favorite ETF :p )

Petroleum

platinum

Rhodium

Soybeans

Soybean oil

Wheat

Tin

Zinc

Sugar

Many of them seem to be short-term speculations. What do you think are good long-term investments among these?

Minimizing the US cluster risk is currently a major topic for investors. It is perhaps even THE topic since the second Trump administration has been throwing tariffs and isolationist positions around.

As part of an incipient reallocation in the portfolio $DFEN (-0,02 %) and $ASWC (+0 %) recently, but was bothered by the high proportion of US shares and the heavy weighting of Blackbox $PLTR (-0,43 %) among others.

Today I stumbled across the recently launched ETF from WisdomTree, which compiles purely European defense companies: $IE0002Y8CX98 (-0,17 %)

Some quick raw data:

Listed for the first time on 3/4/2025

TER: 0.4% p.a.

Physical

Accumulating

WKN: A40Y9K

IE0002Y8CX98

Largest positions:

Rheinmetall (approx. 20%) $RHM (+1,09 %) 🇩🇪

Leonardo (approx. 15%) $LDO (-0,5 %) 🇮🇹

Saab (approx. 10%) $SAAB B (+2,21 %) 🇸🇪

BAE (approx. 10%) $BAE (+0 %) 🇬🇧

Thales (approx. 9%) $THALES (-0,01 %) 🇫🇷

This investor will reallocate a little. He is not giving investment advice, but rather enjoying the diversity of Europe. 🇪🇺

Sources:

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/etfs/thematic/wdef---wisdomtree-europe-defence-ucits-etf---eur-acc

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/strategies/european-defence

https://www.justetf.com/de/etf-profile.html?isin=IE0002Y8CX98#chart

https://www.computerbild.de/artikel/cb-News-Finanzen-Erster-ETF-fuer-europaeische-Verteidigung-39553857.html

Revenue Forward 3Y CAGR and Forward P/S Ratio (sorted in ascending order)

Hims & Hers: 31.9% / 3.4x $HIMS (+1,19 %)

Spotify: 14.9% / 5.6x $SPOT (+0 %)

Airbnb: 10.4% / 6.8x $ABNB (-0,28 %)

Roblox: 19.4% / 7.3x $RBLX

Robinhood: 17.0% / 10.6x $HOOD (+0,31 %)

The Trade Desk: 19,4% / 11,1x $TTD (-1,17 %)

Fortinet: 14.4% / 11.5x $FTNT (+0,29 %)

Shopify: 22.6% / 11.9x $SHOP (-0,84 %)

Palo Alto Networks: 14.7% / 12.2x $PANW (-0,37 %)

ServiceNow: 19.5% / 13.4x $NOW

Duolingo: 26.7% / 13.7x $DUOL

Axon Enterprise: 20.9% / 15.5x $AXON (-0,57 %)

Crowdstrike: 22.5% / 17.2x $CRWD (-0,56 %)

Cloudflare: 27.2% / 20.9x $NET (-0,97 %)

Palantir: 30.8% / 52.6 $PLTR (-0,43 %)

Palantir and Hims & Hers are not the same...

Even if Palantir increases its sales by an ambitious 30% every year over the next 10 years and achieves a free cash flow margin of 45% (!), the current share price is still >20% above fair value (assumption: 3% terminal growth, 8% discount rate) - even though the share has already corrected by >30%.

Your opinion?

Airbnb $ABNB (-0,28 %)

Amazon $AMZN (-0,68 %)

Axon $AXON (-0,57 %)

Cadence $CDNS (+0 %)

Constellation Software $CSU (-0,68 %)

Costco $COST (+0 %)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (-0,56 %)

Fair Isaac $FICO (+0 %)

Ferrari $RACE (-0,16 %)

Hermes $RMS (-0,39 %)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (+1,19 %)

Intuit $INTU (+3,61 %)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (+0,71 %)

Mastercard $MA (+0 %)

Microsoft $MSFT (-0,62 %)

Moody's $MCO (-0 %)

MSCI $MSCI (+0 %)

Palantir $PLTR (-0,43 %)

Robinhood $HOOD (+0,31 %)

Roblox $RBLX

Shopify $SHOP (-0,84 %)

Tesla $TSLA (-0,68 %)

The Trade Desk $TTD (-1,17 %)

Transdigm $TDG (+0,51 %)

Select a maximum of 8-10 positions from this list that have the best risk/reward ratio and are reasonably valued. Then there is a good chance of outperforming the S&P 500.

Your opinion?

Still carries far too much weight in the portfolio. Proceeds go into telecoms and ETFs.