4D·

Palantir breaks records - but are the highs justified?

🚀 Record quarter for $PLTR (-0,54 %) :

In Q2 2025, Palantir exceeded USD 1 billion in revenue for the first time, an impressive +48% compared to Q2 2024.

The US market accounted for USD 733 million of this: US commercial +93 %, US government +53 % YoY.

Profit & cash flow power:

GAAP net income: USD 327m (+144% YoY)

Adjusted free cash flow: USD 569m (57% margin), operating cash flow: USD 539m (54% margin)

Cash position: Impressive USD 6 billion in cash & securities, without any debt.

Rule-of-40 score: 94 % - a milestone in efficiency and growth.

Management raises the annual sales forecast for 2025 to USD 4.142-4.150 billion - US Commercial in particular is expected to reach over USD 1.302 billion. Operating profit and free cash flow will also increase significantly.

Total annual sales amounted to USD 2.86 billion and net profit to USD 462 million.

In addition: free cash flow 2024: approx. USD 1.14 billion - a significant increase compared to 2023.

Bullish aspects:

Growth & profitability in one: Q2 2025 shows sales explosion and high margins - Rule-of-40 at 94%.

Clean balance sheet result: USD 6 bn cash, no debt, strong free cash flow.

Increase in analyst sentiment: outlook raised, solid forecasts - signals confident management.

Risks & issues:

Extremely high valuation: some analysts point to multiple risk - such as a P/E near 800x or around 194x 2026 free cash flow.

Short-term market volatility: Despite the records, observers warn of potential corrections, especially if growth falters.

Dependence on US business: A large part of sales comes from government and US commercial - diversification remains relevant.

I have $PLTR (-0,54 %) on my watchlist and am observing the whole thing from the sidelines. I will definitely pick up a few shares after the next setback.

How is it with you? Already invested or on the lookout? 😁

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18 Comentarios

Ronald@AlterMann

Despite a monthly savings plan, my entire position is up over 600%.

Why should there be a back seat when and in what amount? What happens next?

If I had always waited for setbacks everywhere, the value of my portfolio would only be a fraction of what it is now

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Brandon90@Brandon90

@AlterMann Let's be honest . Market setbacks are normal and will come sooner or later . Of course, nobody can predict them, but I think it makes more sense in the long term to buy after a correction rather than at the ATH. If you want to make profits in the short term, you should of course take advantage of the momentum. And congratulations on the 600% 😁

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Ronald@AlterMann

@Brandon90 There have been repeated ATHs for umpteen years. The one for Palantir was once 15, for example. Everyone who bought there - at the ATH - is laughing themselves to sleep today.
As I have no plan for how the shares will perform tomorrow, next month, next year, etc., I have savings plans for all my positions. If it goes up I'm in, if it goes down I buy cheaply. That way I don't have to constantly worry about whether to buy now or later, only to be annoyed later because it would have been better otherwise

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Sebastian J.@Sansebastian

@AlterMann Nevertheless, it does not make sense to buy at the ATH. Take the example of Amazon: Buy at the ATH in July 21. You had to wait 3 years to get back to +-0

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Brandon90@Brandon90

@AlterMann With a savings plan, of course, it's a different story. I also have a savings plan on Alphabet and am up 30%. I don't analyze the chart or look at the fundamentals. I enjoy trading actively. Chart analysis, company valuation etc. is my thing, which is why I want to buy anti-cyclically.

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Brandon90@Brandon90

@Sansebastian I see it the same way. Same case with Novonordisk or Paypal 👍🏽

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Mo@BigMo

I like the business model and the growth figures, but not the current valuation.

I can imagine getting back in if there is a major setback.
Especially when the overall market corrects, highly overvalued companies like $PLTR usually react like a leveraged stock (downwards).

Of course, you can also simply hold on through 50%+ corrections 🤷‍♂️ It's up to you...

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Brandon90@Brandon90

@BigMo I feel the same way. The model is awesome but the valuation is far too high. I assume that the valuation will always be high, similar to Tesla, but I'm still waiting for a setback

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Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

The market price is formed exclusively by supply and demand. Current price = current consensus, momentum speaks for itself.
Whether the valuation will be punished at some point will only be seen in the price anyway. Until then, enjoy the ride.

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Brandon90@Brandon90

@Savvy_investor_2000 That's why I'm watching and getting in as soon as market participants overreact again or take profits 😁

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Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

@BigMo
You can also set partial stops tighter and tighten them regularly. This is usually more efficient than waiting for the perfect setback.

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Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

@Savvy_investor_2000
The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
In both directions.
According to Keynes.

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Kalle@Brazzo_Muc

Am up almost 1000%. I still have 180 shares and sold 20 in January, thus partially recouping my investment.

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SathosiRuffy@SathosiRuffy

Buy at ATH > Buy on setback after poor quarterly figures

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Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

@SathosiRuffy
ATH is statistically one of the strongest buy signals.

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Michi@Jepeto

Since October 2020!!! Can't complain, but now with a stop, you can't be too greedy.

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Walter S.@Roots

Let the savings plan run its course - currently a little lower - buy in the event of a setback...
If I wait for a reset with a company like this, it could take months, years...

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Brandon90@Brandon90

Small update: $PLTR just corrected😉

I will probably buy my first tranche at € 133 ( GD200 ).

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