Jackson Hole – The Valley Where Powell Sent the Markets to the Sky

The markets have been dragging their feet for days. Flat, maybe slightly declining. Today that changed. As Jerome Powell slipped into the camp of the doves, stocks rose sharply across the board. Suddenly, he didn’t sound all that worried anymore. A September rate cut? On the table.

Of course, he didn’t throw caution out the window completely. Powell still mentioned the risk of sticky inflation and labor market pressure caused by the tariff policies. But he also stressed that those inflationary effects could be temporary. Translation: the Fed is leaning toward cuts.

So, are we out of danger? I don’t think so. Tariffs are still here, supply chains remain messy, and a cut won’t magically shield the economy forever. The rally might feel like salvation, but the correction hasn’t been cancelled – just rescheduled.

U.S. Nationalize Intel – Might As Well Join the Warsaw Pact

And then came the real headline of the day. President Trump met with Intel’s CEO. According to his own words, he liked the guy – even though he just called for his resignation after Senator Tom Cotton published a “nasty” piece. Only Trump can flip like that.

But here’s the absurdity: he also suggested that the U.S. government should own 10% of Intel. The CEO, apparently frightened by the president, said he’d “consider it.”

Let’s be clear: if the administration starts nationalizing critical tech companies simply because the president feels like it, how is that any different from China? One day it’s Intel, next day maybe NVIDIA or Amazon. That’s not capitalism, that’s creeping autocracy dressed up as industrial policy.

It’s incredible that nobody is objecting to this insanity. The indifference by people from his own party is staggering. Have Republicans forgotten that not everything Trump says is gold? Have they lost their tongue or their courage? Lutnick just shared on X that the U.S. now officially own a 10% stake in Intel. That is mind-blowing and the CEO should be questioned critically. How could this happen?

I get that Trump does as he feels – sometimes waking up with the sudden urge to declare tariffs or put pressure on the Fed – but this is a totally new level. If the administration continues down this path, the U.S. and China will soon be indistinguishable.

$INTC (+3,61 %)
$NVDA (+0,78 %)
$AMZN (+2,06 %)

I genuinely hope something happens in the next few days, otherwise I’ll have to give my thoughts on the entire S&P 500. These daily posts were supposed to include a macro story, plus a buy/sell or addition to the watchlist – not just that exclusively. Yeah, didn’t really work out that way.

Though, I assume that after tomorrow’s speech by Jerome Powell, we’ll finally have a new topic.

FICO ( $FICO (+2,94 %)
) – The King of Credit Scores

FICO might not be as well known as the stars of the market like Nvidia or Microsoft, but it’s just as important for keeping the system running. Roughly 90% of top U.S. lenders use the company’s credit scores when making lending decisions. That’s an incredible moat: banks, credit card issuers, and mortgage providers are effectively locked into FICO’s system.

What makes FICO so compelling is that it combines two strengths. First, its legacy scoring model, which is almost impossible to displace. Second, its growing analytics/software segment, which helps financial institutions with risk management and fraud detection. This second part of the business is often overlooked but has strong growth potential, especially as AI reshapes how banks evaluate customers and manage risk.

The company doesn’t grow like a high-flying tech stock, but it delivers steady, predictable earnings with pricing power – and that’s gold in today’s market.

The main concern, of course, is valuation. Even after the recent selloff, FICO trades at a forward P/E north of 50. And the drawdown didn’t happen in a vacuum. Management’s aggressive pricing strategies drew the attention of regulators – an unforced error. Still, when you consider the irreplaceable role FICO plays, the premium is at least somewhat justified.

For me, it’s not a buy right now. But if we ever move closer to $1000 a share, or a forward P/E of 30, I’d reconsider. For the moment, I’m quite content with my Equifax position, which operates in an adjacent space.

Meta ( $META (+1,22 %)
) – Not Just Facebook Anymore

What started out of a Harvard dorm room has turned into one of the most dominant success stories in social media. Mark Zuckerberg – the nerd turned free speech warrior – made this rise possible. His vision, together with a strong team, led to several highly successful acquisitions that were integrated seamlessly.

The two crown jewels of the “Metaverse,” WhatsApp and Instagram, weren’t built by Zuckerberg himself. They were bought. And today, they stand among the most successful acquisitions in business history. Very few companies can point to such a track record. Facebook – the company that began the journey – is pretty much dead now. Even among seniors, it isn’t what it once was. But that doesn’t matter much anymore, because Meta has become so much more.

Of course, the company has faced plenty of criticism over the years: scandals, regulatory pressure, and the huge bet on the metaverse. That last one even caused the stock to collapse so far in 2022 that not even Tom Lee could have stayed bullish. But it rebounded. The strategy paid off. And Meta now reports one record quarter after the next. Hands down, this is one of the best-managed and widest-moat companies worldwide.

There is no world where WhatsApp or Instagram are replaced. New challengers like TikTok haven’t dented Meta’s dominance. If anything, the platforms are more entrenched than ever.

Recently, the company has made headlines by hiring away the competition. Meta offered packages worth $100 million to the crème de la crème of AI engineers, poaching talent from top firms – including OpenAI. Zuckerberg is building an All-Star team. Let’s see what they can deliver.

I’m extremely bullish on the company, though after such a strong run I’d expect a pullback. If that happens, I’ll be the first to start building up a position again.

$NVDA (+0,78 %)
$MSFT (-0,35 %)
$EFX (+2,36 %)
$LYPS (+0,6 %)
$CSPX (+0,5 %)
$VUSA (+0,49 %)

🇺🇸 USA

$SPX500 slightly down (~–0.3%)

$DJ30 modestly higher

Tech snapshot:

• $NVDA (+0,78 %) ~USD 175.40 (–0.14%)

•$AVGO (+0,59 %) ~USD 291.17 (–1.28%)

🇪🇺 Europe

Markets cautious ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

$EUSTX50 futures ~–0.4%

$GER40 futures ~–0.3%

Selected Stocks:

• $RR. (-0,08 %) (Rolls-Royce) ~1,035 GBp (+0.9%)

•$LDO (-0,13 %) (Leonardo S.p.A.) ~€46.65 (+4.0%)

•$GOOGL (+2,32 %) (Alphabet) ~USD 168.20 (+0.5%)

•$META (+1,22 %) (Meta Platforms) ~USD 562.70 (+0.7%)

•$NVDA (+0,78 %) A (NVIDIA) ~USD 175.40 (–0.14%)

• $AVGO (+0,59 %) ~USD 291.17 (–1.28%)

🌏 Asia

Nikkei –0.6% — $JPN225

KOSPI +0.7%, Australia at record highs

China & Hong Kong flat

💱 Forex

$965275 (+1,03 %) EUR/USD ~1.163 — $EURUSD (USD steady pre-Powell)

🥇 Gold (ETF GLD)

$GLD (+0 %) ~ $304.80 (–0.2%) — gold softer, Jackson Hole in focus

🛢 Oil

$WTI ~ $79.50 (+0.8%) — boosted by lower US inventories

💰 Crypto

$BTC (-0,25 %) ~113,735 (–0.1%)

$ETH (-0,91 %) ~4,294 (+1.7%)

$TRX (-0,02 %) ~0.354 (+1.4%)

🔎 Crypto Insight:

Bitcoin is stabilizing after testing recent lows, showing resilience above the $110k level. Ethereum rebounded with strength, holding above $4,200, while TRON continues its steady climb, attracting attention for its strong on-chain activity. Overall, crypto sentiment remains cautiously bullish despite broader market volatility.

👉 Follow for daily market insights and updates! - https://www.etoro.com/people/farlys

Uber ( $UBER (+1,65 %)
) – Very Much Alive

Since nothing is really going on that concerns the markets on a macro level, I’ll just continue running down my watchlist. These are two companies with great potential that I would buy on a pullback.

Let’s start with Uber. The company is mostly known for ride-hailing – though it’s far more than that. Uber operates on three pillars: mobility, delivery, and freight. Especially the delivery business, notably with Uber Eats, expanded its reach and matured into a serious cash generator rather than a side hustle. Uber Eats already commands a quarter of the food delivery market share in the U.S. The network is growing steadily, and the platform is “eating” into DoorDash’s business.

The main concern brought up by analysts just a few weeks ago – similar to Google – was that Uber operates in a dying industry. Ride-hailing was supposed to be devastated by Tesla and the almighty Elon, who would transform mobility forever. Nobody would use Uber, because it was outdated. Autonomous vehicles would destroy the business model. Based on all these overblown assumptions a low valuation was somehow “justified.” That’s the point where famous investor Bill Ackman bought in, and from there the stock only knew one direction: up.

I want to add to the point of autonomous vehicles taking over Uber’s business. That’s simply not true. Uber started a partnership with Waymo – which, unlike Tesla, has working cars – and this shows that autonomous vehicles could even benefit the platform. Providers like Waymo could strike exclusive partnership agreements with Uber and use its extensive network to leverage customer acquisition. That’s a net benefit, not a loss.

However, the stock is still trading at a rather cheap valuation, though for me, it would need to go back below $70 to be a compelling buy. Not unlikely, if economic fears continue to rise.

Micron ( $MU (+0,51 %)
) – A Bet on Memory

When people think about AI hardware, they usually think about GPUs and other fancy products made by Nvidia. But here’s the thing: it’s not just about raw computing power anymore. The new trend is memory. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) has become the lifeblood of AI advancements. And guess what? There are only three companies on the planet that can produce these chips, and Micron is the upcoming champion.

Its chips are currently validated for Nvidia’s newest technology: Blackwell. This development is gold for Micron. The demand for its products is so high that the order books are completely filled and the company even has problems supplying everyone. Micron is growing aggressively, taking away market share from its competitors with superior products and a strong reputation that leads to high-profile deals – like the Blackwell one. But Micron isn’t stopping there. It is already developing chips for next-gen GPUs that expand memory pools in servers – perfect for inference.

If AI is the future, then memory is the oxygen it needs to survive. Since the business is inherently cyclical, though, I will wait for a broader pullback to buy into the company, possibly around $90.

$DASH (+0,46 %)
$NVDA (+0,78 %)