2D·

Aug 20 / Let’s Work Off the Watchlist

Uber ( $UBER (+1,65 %)
) – Very Much Alive


Since nothing is really going on that concerns the markets on a macro level, I’ll just continue running down my watchlist. These are two companies with great potential that I would buy on a pullback.


Let’s start with Uber. The company is mostly known for ride-hailing – though it’s far more than that. Uber operates on three pillars: mobility, delivery, and freight. Especially the delivery business, notably with Uber Eats, expanded its reach and matured into a serious cash generator rather than a side hustle. Uber Eats already commands a quarter of the food delivery market share in the U.S. The network is growing steadily, and the platform is “eating” into DoorDash’s business.


The main concern brought up by analysts just a few weeks ago – similar to Google – was that Uber operates in a dying industry. Ride-hailing was supposed to be devastated by Tesla and the almighty Elon, who would transform mobility forever. Nobody would use Uber, because it was outdated. Autonomous vehicles would destroy the business model. Based on all these overblown assumptions a low valuation was somehow “justified.” That’s the point where famous investor Bill Ackman bought in, and from there the stock only knew one direction: up.


I want to add to the point of autonomous vehicles taking over Uber’s business. That’s simply not true. Uber started a partnership with Waymo – which, unlike Tesla, has working cars – and this shows that autonomous vehicles could even benefit the platform. Providers like Waymo could strike exclusive partnership agreements with Uber and use its extensive network to leverage customer acquisition. That’s a net benefit, not a loss.


However, the stock is still trading at a rather cheap valuation, though for me, it would need to go back below $70 to be a compelling buy. Not unlikely, if economic fears continue to rise.


Micron ( $MU (+0,51 %)
) – A Bet on Memory


When people think about AI hardware, they usually think about GPUs and other fancy products made by Nvidia. But here’s the thing: it’s not just about raw computing power anymore. The new trend is memory. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) has become the lifeblood of AI advancements. And guess what? There are only three companies on the planet that can produce these chips, and Micron is the upcoming champion.


Its chips are currently validated for Nvidia’s newest technology: Blackwell. This development is gold for Micron. The demand for its products is so high that the order books are completely filled and the company even has problems supplying everyone. Micron is growing aggressively, taking away market share from its competitors with superior products and a strong reputation that leads to high-profile deals – like the Blackwell one. But Micron isn’t stopping there. It is already developing chips for next-gen GPUs that expand memory pools in servers – perfect for inference.


If AI is the future, then memory is the oxygen it needs to survive. Since the business is inherently cyclical, though, I will wait for a broader pullback to buy into the company, possibly around $90.

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$DASH (+0,46 %)
$NVDA (+0,78 %)

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5 Comentarios

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Nice One! But then the questions are: why should Alphabet, once Waymo are out and working, keep $UBER on board and don't gain the moat by itself? And what if $TSLA wins the race on autonomous EV? There is some uncertainty on this stock and I would not be surprised if Funds start short-selling the stock in the future...
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@GiCi you are right, a certain discount is justified for Uber, due to inherent uncertainties around the future. But imo in 9 out of 10 scenarios Uber is on top. And to the Waymo point specifically: As I see it it’s a win-win situation for both companies. Uber has the name, Waymo the technology. The scaling for Waymo can be facilitated through Uber. Uber gives the Waymo brand a sort of certification of quality I’d say. And yes if Tesla is on top Uber could potentially be screwed, but there’s no indication at the moment that Tesla can produce anything to challenge anyone frankly. Elon Musk throws promises after promises and keeps underdelivering. To sum up, I think it’s fair that Uber trades at some discount, but in most scenarios the company won’t die in the next 5 years, rather the opposite.
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@MozartTrading I see your point and is a good One. But is rather a matter of economies of scale. Once Waymo can pick you up, it can also deliver your groceries. There is no need for branding. Amazon $AMZN paved the way. It is normal for good companies to take risks, Apple gave up entering in automotive, Alphabet moved away from oroducing its own smartphone, but they all had several different projects ongoing.
But in the case of $UBER , what's in the pipeline? I am not saying it will close, but I do feel bearish on this stock.
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@GiCi you could be right and maybe Uber trades much lower in 10 years. You should monitor it for sure. But if and that’s a big if Uber were to become irrelevant, then that process takes time. I think before we would see the downfall of Uber we will still see a few years of very solid growth. And to be fair a P/E of 15 and possibly lower already prices in a lot of the risk imo. But we’ll see and I haven’t invested yet, but I’ll consider it at a pullback.
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@MozartTrading sure. Your entry point is quite safe, but I would update future plans if and when the stock gets there.
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