Movies

Concrete rush

Blackberry

Crypto Boy

Dumb Money

Series

King of Stonks

The Billion Dollar Code

The Playlist

Documentaries

Crash: The case against Boeing

Come hell or high water: The wild world of John McAfee

Bernie Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street

Biggest Heist Ever

Bitconned - The scam with the cryptocurrency Centra

Crytopia: Bitcoin, Blockchains and theFuture of theInternet

The dilemma with social media

Bill Gates the man

The smart use of money

Dirty Money: Money rules the world

Eat the Rich: How GameStop turned Wall Street on its head

Explained: Money

High Score

Inside Job

Pepsi, where's my jet?

Scandal! The fall of Wirecard

Trust no one: The hunt for the crypto king

World market leader: The story of Tan Siekmann

Trump: An American Dream

>> Like if you have Netflix. 👍

$NFLX (+0 %)

Recently, we had the opportunity to listen to a very insightful conversation between Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne and Spencer Neumann, CFO of Netflix ($NFLX (+0 %) ), listened in.

Right at the beginning, Swinburne talked about Netflix's impressive development. He recalled that the company's growth in 2023 was still in the mid-single digits and the mood was rather depressed. But in 2024, Netflix reported top-line growth of almost 20% in the fourth quarter and a margin increase of six percentage points. Swinburne therefore wanted to know what made this rapid reacceleration of the business of this magnitude possible.

Neumann mentioned that the company had focused on two key tactical measures during the slowdown in growth. Firstly, introducing a solution to account sharing, as there was significant demand but many users were watching Netflix for free. Secondly, building an additional revenue and profit pool through advertising. In the area of paid sharing, the solution has been introduced over the last two years, rolled out globally and finally fully operationalized, as communicated in the last earnings calls. This has led to a better mechanism for capturing the value of the growing entertainment offering and meeting demand.

With regard to advertising, Neumann emphasized that this area is still in the early stages of development, but that significant progress has already been made, particularly in terms of scaling reach. He mentioned that Netflix expects to reach critical mass in ad-supported memberships in all twelve advertising markets in 2025 and will then focus on further improving the monetization of inventory. In addition, Neumann emphasized the continuous improvement of the entire Netflix service as a decisive factor, as the competition is also getting better and better. The goal is to improve faster than the competition in order to drive the growth cycle of more and better entertainment, higher engagement, more revenue and more profit.

Swinburne followed up and addressed Netflix's ambitions to achieve sustained double-digit revenue growth. He asked about the remaining addressable market, with over 300 million members already and revenues of 40 billion dollars last year. Neumann reiterated that Netflix was still at the beginning. Although progress has been made, the addressable market is still enormous. Despite its large current reach, with over 300 million paying members worldwide, it reaches an audience of over 700 million people in households. Nevertheless, the key figures of the addressable market are still small. Netflix reaches around 40% of networked TV households worldwide, and this universe continues to grow. It captures around 6% of the addressable revenue market and has less than 10% of TV view share in every major country. The strategy is simple: offer more and more entertainment value worldwide, expand the offering beyond movies and TV to games and then achieve healthy revenue and profit growth through a better value creation mechanism (more members, further development of prices and plans, advertising), while costs should grow more slowly than revenue.

Regarding competition, Swinburne asked specifically about YouTube. Neumann confirmed that there is competition for people's entertainment time, but emphasized that the focus is on growing into the entertainment time that neither Netflix nor YouTube currently cover. In the USA, for example, around 80% of TV view shares are not covered by either of the two. He highlighted Netflix's strengths: a leading position in direct-to-consumer entertainment with an enormous global reach, an outstanding discovery and product experience for premium video content, sharing the creative and commercial risk with creators and a leading ability to monetize engagement per hour, which in turn enables the funding of creators' future projects. This leads to Netflix being perceived as a home for the best stories and creators.

Swinburne steered the conversation to content spend and investment. He noted that revenue growth over the last five years has been in the low to mid double digits, while cash content spend has only increased by about 3%, indicating that the content team is realizing a higher return on investment. Neumann credited the team for delivering more entertainment value per dollar. He explained that this is based on a continuous learning process on how to leverage content budgets for the greatest impact, across a wide variety and quality of content. The combination of this learning and the improved ability to capture demand through paid sharing, advertising and optimized pricing leads to a higher return on investment.

When asked where the incremental dollar is going these days, Neumann replied that growth opportunities are seen everywhere. It's less about "growth" versus "maintenance" mode, he said, and more about where the highest growth opportunities and spending opportunities exist. He cited examples such as the return of major English-language series, the expansion of licensed content, growth in live events (just starting to take off in the US) and the continued strong investment in non-English language content.

Swinburne addressed the content budget of around 18 billion dollars for the current year and asked about the budgeting and investment process. Neumann explained that this is a mixture of art and science. You start with a good predictability of revenue and set margin targets. This is used to determine how much is left over for content, whereby long-term investments to promote growth are also taken into account. Then there is the bottom-up approach, in which the various content categories and regions are analyzed in order to achieve the greatest impact. This process is fluid and iterative.

Another important topic was sport. Neumann clarified that Netflix is pursuing a "live event strategy" and not a pure "sports strategy". Live events are a broader category that aims to offer members more entertainment value and create cultural conversation starters. This includes comedy, unscripted, sport and sports entertainment. This has already been seen with the Tom Brady Roast, John Mulaney, the Paul Tyson fight, NFL at Christmas and now WWE. Such big, event-like moments would support Netflix's core objectives: Entertainment Value, Acquisition and Retention. Although live content currently accounted for a small proportion of spend and viewing hours, it would have a big impact if implemented correctly. Regular seasons of major sports would not necessarily make sense from an economic perspective and to increase entertainment value.

A major focus was on the topic of advertising. Neumann explained that Netflix is moving from the "crawl" to the "walk" phase this year. Great progress had been made and the company was very satisfied with the development of its advertising business. The first step was to scale its reach and the advertising subscription model was seen to be working, with around 55% of new sign-ups in the fourth quarter coming from this subscription, leading to significant sequential growth. The focus for 2025 is now increasingly on monetizing this reach, as it has not yet kept pace with the scaling.

Regarding the long-term ambitions in the advertising business, Neumann explained that the goal is to become the gold standard for digital and branded TV advertising in a premium video marketplace. Given the high engagement rates in the advertising subscription model and the creation of advertising opportunities in live content, this is a large additional revenue and profit pool. The addressable market in the current advertising countries is around 180 billion dollars. Advertising helps to maintain an accessible price level for members and could become an important third pillar for revenue and profit growth alongside membership growth and price development. Even though Netflix will remain a primarily subscription-based business for the foreseeable future, advertising could become a significant minority share of revenue in the medium term.

Swinburne asked about the status of paid sharing. Neumann explained that it had been "operationalized" and, like everything else, was being continuously optimized. Similar to the optimization of the sign-up flow over the course of a decade, there is still potential for optimization in paid sharing in the coming years.

Another important topic was artificial intelligence. Neumann emphasized that Netflix has been working with AI and ML for over 15 years and is now increasingly using Gen AI to achieve efficiency gains and improvements in all areas of the company. This ranges from enterprise productivity in support functions such as finance and legal to improving the member experience (product and title discovery, creation of promotional materials, conversational search) and providing tools for creators to support their creative work. The focus is on using AI to ultimately improve every aspect of the Netflix service and increase entertainment value for users worldwide.

Finally, the conversation turned to gaming. Neumann emphasized that Netflix is still at a very early stage here and that this is a decade-long build-up. They have already published over 100 games, but are not yet where they want to be. The core strategy remains to offer great games within the Netflix membership to increase member value and engagement. The focus has been sharpened with the new executive Alan on some key areas: narrative games, party games for TV, commercial games and children's games. The first signs of higher retention and even acquisition of users who play games can be seen. In the future, they want to go beyond mobile and test cloud gaming on the TV.

The conversation gave a very positive impression of the current situation and Netflix's plans for the future. The strategic decisions of recent years, in particular the measures against account sharing and the expansion of the advertising business, appear to be bearing fruit and have led to growth.

The focus on global content and investment in non-English language productions is paying off and reflects the company's global reach. The cautious approach to the sports market with an emphasis on "eventized" live moments seems economically sensible. The long-term ambitions in the gaming sector are ambitious, but the early success with IP-based games indicates potential.

Overall, Netflix presented itself as a company with clear strategic priorities and a strong focus on long-term growth in an ever-changing competitive environment.

Alphabet: 19.3x $GOOGL (+1,91 %)

AMD: 21.3x $AMD (+0 %)

Meta: 24.8x $META (+1,17 %)

Nvidia: 25.1x $NVDA (+2,15 %)

Broadcom: 28.3x $AVGO (+1,15 %)

Microsoft: 28.5x $MSFT (+0 %)

Amazon: 31.5x $AMZN (+1,44 %)

Apple: 31.7x $AAPL (+0 %)

Netflix: 35.8x $NFLX (+0 %)

Tesla: 92.1x $TSLA (+0 %)

Are you already buying or are you still waiting?

February is over. While there was still snow and temperatures well below zero, I went winter swimming again and used my vacation and weekends for short trips to Dresden, Potsdam and Berlin. Thanks to the Germany Ticket. The investment knew what to do by itself for a while. Time for a look back.

I present the following points for the past month of February 2025:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ AND OTHER?

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

Things were actually going really well for my shares, but there were some serious headwinds from the other side of the pond: tariffs are coming. And that naturally moved my portfolio too. My giant $AVGO (+1,15 %) was now only up +200%, with a clear downward trend. But that still leaves me cold, because technology stocks are of course heavily overvalued. So it's bound to happen that someone lets the air out. I was pleased because my savings plan was executed at a more favorable price.

$NFLX (+0 %) goes down slightly, the $SAP (+0 %) remains stable in terms of performance and volume compared to the previous month. With the 2nd place by volume $WMT (+1,41 %) not too much has happened either. So as far as the stocks at the front end of the chain are concerned, February was not really eventful. The same applies to the lower areas.

Whereas last month the banking and financial sector moved ahead in terms of volume, I now notice the $RSG (+0,74 %) and $SYK (-0,28 %) which continue to fight their way to the top of the portfolio. This is exciting, as I have always seen these stocks as good midfield performers, but not candidates for the top positions.

➡️ ETFs

As always, ETFs are doing their thing. What can you say except the typical? Don't rely on the state pension, build your own ETF pension. Anyone who doesn't invest is simply - I can't put it any nicer - stupid and lost. And I think that there have now been enough warnings from every political direction, as well as from various other perspectives and media, that the pension will not be enough. That's why my inner voice tells me that those who don't take care of their old age will only have themselves to blame for their misery and I even think it's unfair if others, who perhaps have little income and are cutting back in order to build up assets, have to be fleeced in order to protect the idle. At least that's what my inner voice tells me. Certainly a controversial opinion, feel free to write yours in the comments.

➡️ Distributions

I was able to collect 19 distributions on 9 payout days in January. I am grateful for this additional income stream. Everyone should build up their additional income this way.

➡️ Cashback

In January there were two reimbursements from the health insurance company, which I treat as "cashback". One was a subsidy for prophylaxis and the other was a payout from the bonus program. As I don't plan either of these as income, there was extra money to distribute. More on this under subsequent purchases.

➡️ Additional purchases

I used the subsidy for the prophylaxis to purchase a one-off savings plan in the $SPYW (+0,12 %) plan. I initially put the payout from the bonus program to one side.

➡️ P2P loans

With my last P2P platform, Mintos, there was no interest or redemption payment. I still want to withdraw everything here. I would even accept a complete write-off to get out of the platform. In any case, the remaining amount on the platform is no longer relevant.

➡️ Crypto

Crypto investors experienced book losses in February. $BTC (-0,05 %) fell from over USD 103,000 to under USD 80,000, and other cryptocurrencies also fell. $ETH (-1,04 %) and other cryptocurrencies.

I remain patient. We are a long way from my exit prices and no improvement is expected in March. We will have to wait and see and possibly add to our position.

➡️ And what else?

I currently see a major threat to the prosperity on which the German welfare state is built. Wokism, cancel culture and, above all, reliance on the state is a huge problem, as is the ever-inflating state. We Germans have far too little awareness of personal responsibility and the wrong mindset.

You are always the average of the people around you. So if you surround yourself with the wrong environment, you will never be able to develop better habits. That's why I think you should always surround yourself with people who are already where you want to be, be it in terms of sport, career, setting up a business or finances.

In February, for example, I met up with people who are also interested in investing and the stock market for a regulars' table in rural Saxony-Anhalt, naturally at the invitation of a Youtuber who I have been following for a long time and who is a frugalist himself. Each of the participants had a different background, different ideas, but the knowledge that you have to do something yourself and the will to get ahead in life united us. The meeting was simply wonderful because I usually only meet people (especially in my day-to-day work) who tend not to think about the difficult tomorrow. And I'm not just talking about very young people, but also baby boomers. I myself maintain that pensions will no longer be secure for them either. What happens if Germany gets into financial difficulties, for example if government spending continues to rise and income can no longer keep up? The cancel culture certainly means that low-income earners prefer to go on state benefits, or that people who are able to work do not leave the citizen's allowance at all. I don't have a solution for this myself.

But we all know that the state is becoming ever more bloated. On the one hand, it can't prevent this if it has to provide for more and more people (e.g. an increase in baby boomers who will soon be retiring or people who [have to] go into the citizen's allowance). On the other hand, the state doesn't want to prevent this bloating either, as it is deliberately increasing its size through bureaucracy and new official structures. Do we actually need them?

And here comes my assumption. What if this CAP cannot be solved by printing money, as it would become excessive and the welfare state would no longer function? Citizen's income is an entitlement under certain conditions, but having an entitlement does not mean that the entitlement will be enforced. The best example is childcare places. If there aren't enough, you can still be entitled to them. So what happens when social benefits can no longer be financed? No matter how much entitlement there may be. That doesn't help anyone. I deliberately paint a black scenario to get the last person to make their own provisions!

There are 45.6 million people in employment in Germany, 34.8 million of whom are subject to social insurance contributions, 5.3 million of whom are in the public sector. In simplified terms, this means that around 29.5 million keep the economy running through taxes. And thus consequently keep the welfare state alive through social security contributions. Please also remember that 100,000 well-trained skilled workers leave our country every year. Germany has invested in them in the form of general and university education. And entrepreneurs or institutions in the country have invested in them through vocational training, further and advanced training and wages and salaries. I can understand anyone who wants to leave the country and live elsewhere. Instead of condemning these people, we should finally initiate a change in policy so that Germany becomes more attractive again and 100,000 taxpayers don't leave.

As I said, I'm deliberately painting the devil on the wall, but there won't be enough of the 29.5 million taxpayers left to keep things running forever. I haven't even considered the fact that many well-qualified people will retire and won't be replaced by equally well-qualified people. In any case, the risk that the welfare state will cease to function at some point is great enough for me to expect that what we consider normal today will or can no longer be normal at some point. In any case, I have heard the warnings and prefer to build up my own assets and additional income that will cushion me.

So: build up your own assets and income and stay away from government influence/opinion mongering and deceptive promises about a supposedly secure welfare state, as you will end up on your own when things get serious.

➡️ Outlook

Trump's next tariffs are coming into force, sending shockwaves through the markets, and even now, as I write this article in March, my portfolio is noticeably affected. In March, I will receive a reimbursement from my supplementary dental insurance and a bonus from my employer. You can read what I'm going to invest it in in the March review. Until then!

Links:

Social media links can be found in my profile, you can also check out the Instagram version of my review.

The following shares reached a new 52-week high in the course of yesterday:

Meta $META (+1,17 %)

Netflix $NFLX (+0 %)

Costco $COST (+1,26 %)

Walmart $WMT (+1,41 %)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (+3,14 %) (forgot what happened in the summer)

Spotify $SPOT (+0,8 %)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (+5,38 %) (now the best stock YTD)

Duolingo $DUOL

Hilton $HLT (+0,1 %)

Interactive Brokers $IBKR (+4,39 %)

Moody's $MCO (-0 %)

Sharkninja $SN

Congratulations to all investors and Happy Weekend!

$NFLX (+0 %)

According to media reports, the streaming provider Netflix is considering bidding for the US broadcasting rights for Formula 1.

The rights are still held by sports broadcaster ESPN until the end of this year.

Netflix could take its place in future, according to the Times and The Athletic. However, the racing series is much less popular in the USA than in Europe or South America. Insiders told the news agency Reuters that the deadline for ESPN to extend its contract had recently expired. Now all bidders could throw their hats into the ring.

With the Formula 1 rights, Netflix could build on the success of its documentary series "Drive to survive", which provides a look behind the scenes of the races and has increased their popularity worldwide.

ESPN, Netflix, Formula 1 owner Liberty Media and Formula 1 could not be reached for comment.

January is over. The first month of the year was relatively quiet for me: one hike and two ice baths in sub-zero temperatures. The investment knew what to do by itself. Time for a look back.

I present the following points for the past month of January 2025:

➡️ SHARES

➡️ ETFS

➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS

➡️ CASHBACK

➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES

➡️ P2P CREDITS

➡️ CRYPTO

➡️ AND OTHER?

➡️ OUTLOOK

➡️ Shares

After a strong month in December, my heavyweight among the individual stocks has $AVGO (+1,15 %) lost a bit of steam during the month, but is still up by over 250% overall. A performance that I did not expect when I selected my stocks.

On the other hand $NFLX (+0 %) and $SAP (+0 %) are performing well. Netflix with +179% and SAP now also in triple digits with +118%. Both are in 3rd and 4th place in terms of volume. $WMT (+1,41 %) now with +105%, also a doubler. It gets exciting behind them, the financial stocks are rising. $BAC (-0,27 %) ,$V (-1,07 %) and $MA (+0,31 %) continue to push forward. Is this now a sign that financial stocks will generally rise again? It's well known that profits are rising there. I suspect that the stock market will now price in Trump's deregulation of the sector.

The red lanterns will once again go to the usual suspects $NKE (+2,52 %) , $DHR (-2,27 %) and $CPB (+0,14 %) . All stocks are now performing even worse at -35%, -29% and -22%. They are among the smallest positions in my main equity portfolio with the $DHL (+0,66 %) . I'm not worried about the big drop yet, but I'm already taking a closer look. I would have expected Danaher in particular to be back in the black after the last split.

➡️ ETFs

ETFs are doing their thing as usual. What else can you say except the typical?

➡️ Distributions

I received 23 distributions on 12 payout days in January. I am grateful for this additional income stream. Everyone should build up their additional income this way.

➡️ Cashback

There was no cashback payment received in my accounts in January. The separation of REWE and Penny with Payback is making itself felt and I have to come up with a new system for continuing my "cashback pension". So far, I'm thinking about adding up the rebates on the receipts and transferring these amounts from the grocery account to the clearing accounts in order to invest them in one-off savings plans. However, I would only do this once a month because of the administrative effort involved. For DM, Payback continues as usual. But what I like about the REWE and Penny apps is that you can save the discounts in them, so I could use my old system there again. In the meantime, Kaufland is also coming back into focus for my weekly shopping.

➡️ Repeat purchases

There was a subsequent or new purchase of an ETF for my crypto successor portfolio, which was financed from a triggered BTC limit order. I invested in the $EXX5 (-0,35 %) .

➡️ P2P loans

With my last P2P platform, Mintos, there was a redemption payment in the cent range, otherwise the platform continues to hang on my leg like a ball and chain. I will gradually withdraw everything here and hopefully end my involvement in this asset class as soon as possible.

➡️ Crypto

January offered crypto investors a BTC ATH on Trump's inauguration on the one hand, but otherwise we are more likely to be dealing with a sideways market on the whole. As mentioned, I triggered a BTC sell limit order on the day of the inauguration. And it was even very close to the ATH. Around 1/3 of my total holdings have been sold since the beginning of November. I am still far from satisfied. But I need higher prices for further sales. Is my strategy working? Or is the bull market already over? I think it will continue, but not for much longer.

➡️ And what else?

Like many of you, I'm feeling the effects of the changes due to rising social security contributions and rising costs. My budget is set up so that my budgets and lump sums work on their own and I've managed well with my budget sizes too. The amount invested each month via savings plans was as large as possible. In the end, there was always an amount left over that went into my nest egg, the last bit, so to speak. This remaining €100 more than halved in January. On the one hand, it's not a problem, I could simply cut back on the savings plans, but I don't want to do that. I can't reduce my spending any further myself. I'm in a salary round, but it's very likely that I won't get a pay rise this year. I'm happy that my second income stream is growing steadily, even if it's not yet significantly noticeable. Now I'm thinking about how I can earn even more money, because taxes are set to rise further, not just social security contributions, the greedy state and greedy politicians are targeting our investment income and interpreting unfair taxation. Unfortunately, they are completely ignorant, because they do not understand that this is already taxed when it is taxed again for us investors (or has already been taxed twice - keyword withholding tax), or that social security contributions on it would mean a further entitlement to benefits from the funds for us as investors. And not just for us, but also for international investors. In contrast to rental income, for example, the deduction for capital income is immediate and not deferred. These are all considerations that are not taken into account by tax increase enthusiasts. Demanding tax increases in a high-tax country is proof of a lack of reality either way. For me, the entire state should continue to be slimmed down.

So you can see from the current political discourse that the state only wants to take away, instead of ensuring that citizens build up something for themselves with effort and sweat, which they then know how to look after and appreciate. However, a considerable promotion of private asset accumulation means that citizens may not need any or significantly fewer pension payments to ensure an adequate old age. I look with some envy at other countries that have much more sophisticated pension systems or sovereign wealth funds. I once wrote an article about the systems in Norway and Sweden.

➡️ Outlook

In February, I can expect reimbursements from the health insurance companies and the dental supplement, which I will invest in in the February review. Until then!

Links:

Social media links can be found in my profile, also feel free to check out the Instagram version of my review.

Yesterday, the following companies, among others, reached new all-time highs during the course of the day:

Amazon $AMZN (+1,44 %)

Palantir $PLTR (+0 %)

Costco $COST (+1,26 %)

Netflix $NFLX (+0 %)

Spotify $SPOT (+0,8 %)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (+5,38 %)

Duolingo $DUOL

I am in Palantir myself $PLTR (+0 %) and Hims & Hers $HIMS (+5,38 %) both of which have more than quadrupled and doubled in value for me in the last year.

Do you have any of these stocks in your portfolio or are you following them? Which do you think has the greatest potential for the next few years?

The financial markets have provided us with some exciting developments this week. Today's newsletter brings you the most important events in a compact and understandable way:

From DeepSeekthe Chinese AI start-up that has surprised the technology sector with an innovative approach, to the latest interest rate decisions of the central banks, to the mixed quarterly quarterly figures from Tesla - it was a week full of headlines.

Enjoy reading!

DeepSeek: China's new AI player and its consequences

The Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek has caused quite a stir with its new model DeepSeek R1. The AI chatbot, launched on January 20, is now one of the most downloaded apps worldwide. In the USA, it currently occupies 1st place in the iPhone app storeeven ahead of ChatGPT or Google's Gemini. The app is also one of the top downloads in Germany. Users can chat with the AI, upload files or carry out web searches - and the basic version is free.

What makes it special: DeepSeek's chatbot is said to require significantly less computing power than comparable models from large US companies such as OpenAI or Google $GOOGL (+1,91 %) . According to reports, around 2,000 Nvidia H800 graphics processors were used to train DeepSeek-R1, resulting in costs of around 6 million US dollars. By comparison, OpenAI invested around USD 100 million in the development of GPT-4 in 2023. This efficiency calls into question the previous assumption that high-performance AI models necessarily require investments in the billions and specialized high-performance chips. If these figures prove to be true, this could increase the pressure on US companies to rethink their cost structures and investment strategies.

This surprising development and the associated uncertainty triggered a significant reaction on the stock market on Monday. The US tech index Nasdaq 100 lost around 3%, and Nvidia in particular $NVDA (+2,15 %) - the leading provider of chips for AI applications, which has benefited enormously from the AI trend in recent years - fell by almost 17%. Companies such as Broadcom $AVGO (+1,15 %) , AMD $AMD (+0 %) , ASML $ASML (+0,66 %) and Microsoft $MSFT (+0 %) also came under pressure in the meantime. Most tech stocks stabilized somewhat over the course of the week. This is because some experts are questioning the transparency of DeepSeek's data from China and are urging caution when assessing the actual performance and efficiency of the model. It is already becoming apparent that DeepSeek's actual cost advantages could be lower than initially assumed - further developments remain to be seen.

What you as an investor can learn from the DeepSeek turmoil:

• #1: Don't panic - markets often tend to exaggerate in both directions: Tech stocks are sensitive to sensationalized headlines. Share prices can move rapidly up or down in the short term, regardless of the substance of the news. Sharp price losses happen again and again - and are often followed by a quick recovery. It is important to remain calm and not be tempted to sell rashly.

• # 2: Corrections bring opportunities: Sharp price falls like those on Monday often offer good buying opportunities - especially for quality companies with long-term potential and reasonable valuations, e.g. ASML $ASML (+0,66 %) . As long as companies are fundamentally sound, short-term setbacks are usually no cause for concern.

• #3: AI competition is getting tougher - this is positive for innovation and adoption: DeepSeek shows that AI development does not necessarily have to be extremely expensive. More competition and the supposedly new, innovative approach could lead to AI models becoming even more efficient and widely available.

• #4: The technology sector is constantly changing: The technology sector is one of the most rapidly changing markets. Companies that are considered market leaders today can be challenged or displaced by new innovations within a few years. As an investor, you should therefore regularly check whether your technology investments will remain competitive in the long term. Do you only have quality companies in your portfolio with sustainable competitive advantages and attractive future prospects? Or is their market position crumbling, e.g. due to the introduction of new technologies?

Interest rate decisions: What the ECB and Fed mean for the market

This week there were two landmark interest rate decisions - one in Europe, one in the USA.

A brief reminder: Developments and expectations regarding key interest rates are a decisive factor for the stock market. Falling interest rates make loans cheaper and boost investment and consumption. This often causes share prices to rise. Rising interest rates, on the other hand, slow down growth and make alternative investments such as bonds more attractive - this can put pressure on shares.

• ECB lowers key interest rate to 2.75 percent - potential stimulus for the economy: The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered its key interest rate for the fifth time since the monetary policy turnaround at the end of 2023. The monetary authorities decided to lower the deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%. ECB chief Christine Lagarde justified the move with the weakening economy. The EU statistics office reported zero growth in the last quarter of 2024, with growth of just 0.7% for the year as a whole. The aim of the interest rate cut: cheaper loans for companies and private individuals to boost investment and consumption.

• US Federal Reserve remains firm - no interest rate cut (yet): While the ECB is cutting interest rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is standing firm. Despite political pressure from Donald Trump, the Fed has decided to leave the key interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The reason: the US economy remains strong - growth is continuing and inflation has not yet been conquered. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that a premature interest rate cut could jeopardize the fight against rising prices.

Hot phase of the reporting season for many companies in the S&P 500

We are currently in the middle of the phase in which many US companies publish their figures for the last quarter. The following chart from Fundstrat provides an overview of the results so far and how they have been received by the market:

As of Wednesday this week, 103 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 have reported their quarterly results for Q4 2024. 79% of the companies have beaten exceeded earnings estimateswhich indicates an overall strong operating performance. The positive surprise factor of 6.1% shows that companies are performing better than analysts had expected. The S&P 500 is up 3.2% since 12/31/2024, also indicating positive market sentiment. The solid earnings season so far therefore appears to be boosting investor confidence in corporate earnings.

The reports and forecasts of some heavyweights such as Meta $META (+1,17 %) , ASML $ASML (+0,66 %) , Netflix $NFLX (+0 %) , Mastercard $MA (+0,31 %) and Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (+0 %) were well received by investors mostly well well received by investors. Microsoft $MSFT (+0 %) on the other hand, showed a rather subdued share price reaction to the results presented and the short-term outlook. Tesla Tesla $TSLA (+0 %) a company in my portfolio, also presented its figures this week for Q4 2024 with mixed results. The most important findings are summarized here in a compact and understandable way:

• Tesla has in 2024 around 1.8 million vehicles delivered in 2024 - an increase of 36% compared to 2022, but no further increase compared to 2023. With sales of 25.7 billion US dollars in Q4, Tesla achieved a slight increase of 2% compared to the previous year, but still fell short of analysts' high expectations. Margins and profits also fell due to price cuts and financing options. The positive ray of hope was once again the solar systems and energy storage division, where sales doubled to more than USD 3 billion and are expected to grow by >50% growth in 2025. Another positive aspect is the rising cash position, which now stands at USD 36 billion - as far as I know, only the big tech companies such as Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Microsoft, Meta (formerly Facebook), Apple and Nvidia have a higher value.

• Despite the mixed results, Tesla shares remained surprisingly stable after CEO Elon Musk reiterated his vision for the coming years. Tesla announced that from June 2025 a fully autonomous driving service without a human driver in Austin, Texas, from June 2025 - and is expected to roll it out in other US cities by the end of the year. Cheaper e-models are planned for the first half of 2025 with the aim of making electric mobility accessible to even more people. Tesla also plans to produce several thousand of the humanoid robot "Optimus" and put them to good use in its own factories. Ideally, the first robots should be sold to external customers by the end of 2026 - an idea that is arousing the curiosity of many, as it could be used not only in companies but also in private households in the future.

To put things in context: The company is 2024/25 in a transition phase between two growth cycles. The first phase began at the end of the 2010s with the scaling of electric cars, while a new boost is expected from 2026/27/28 due to the introduction of autonomous driving and humanoid robots.

Finally, some noteworthy quotes from the earnings call from Elon Musk - as always, to be interpreted with caution. Tesla's current high valuation is not based on measurable sales and earnings growth, but above all on ambitious plans for the future, which are fraught with uncertainty:

• At the Launch of autonomous driving in the USA: "We live at this unbelievable inflection point in human history. We're going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June."

• On the scenario of other car manufacturers licensing Tesla's software license "At this point, we're seeing significant interest from a number of major car companies about licensing Tesla full self-driving technology."

• The prospect of Tesla becoming the most valuable company in the world in the long term: "I've said this before and I'll stand by it. I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. It's a difficult path but it is an achievable path. And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots."

• Musk also gave a few details on the development and production of the humanoid robot"The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year. So the current line that we're designing is for roughly 1,000 units a month. The next line would be for 10,000 units a month. The line after that would be for 100,000 units a month. My very rough guess is that we start delivering Optimus robots to companies that are outside of Tesla in maybe the second half of next year. I'm confident at 1 million units a year, that the production cost of Optimus will be less than $20,000."

• On the Significance of the year 2025 in Tesla's company history: "2025 really is a pivotal year for Tesla. And when you go look back on 2025 and the launch of unsupervised full self-driving, I think we may regard it as the most important year in Tesla's history. There is no company in the world that is as good at real-world AI as Tesla. I don't even know who's in second place."

I bought my last Tesla shares in August 2024 at €196 - I only plan to buy more when the valuation becomes more realistic and attractive again. I consider a fair valuation to be a price/sales ratio in the range of 8-12x (currently 13x), below that an entry would be much more interesting.

Thank you for reading.

Stay informed and invest wisely.

I had no financial education until July when I enrolled in a graduate course in finance and discovered a passion. I would like to get some opinions or tips to improve my portfolio😊

In watchlist currently I also have $SPOT (+0,8 %)
$NFLX (+0 %)
$LDO (+2,72 %)
$SCWX (+0,43 %)
$XMME (+0,85 %)
$IUIT (+1,3 %)