$JMIA (+0,25 %) has now stepped on the gas again after bottoming out (€1.50) and is now over €4. I am convinced that the journey will continue and that we will soon see a 2-digit price (again) 🚀 Congratulations to everyone who got in 🎯🎉🎉🎉🎉

In recent months, Jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %) Technologies (JMIA) has made an impressive recovery from its lows - and this is no coincidence. The African e-commerce company has undergone a fundamental transformation that not only justifies the current rally, but also opens up the potential for a massive re-rating over the next two years.

1. focus on profitability instead of growth mania

After Jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %) had been struggling with losses for years, the business model was fundamentally revised. The new strategy: reduce costs, expand high-margin segments and close unprofitable business areas. For several quarters in a row, Jumia was able to $JMIA (+0,25 %) was able to significantly reduce its operating losses - a trend that gives investors hope for profitability in the near future.

2 Africa as the growth market of the future

While the major e-commerce markets in the USA, Europe and China are already heavily penetrated, Africa is at the beginning of its digital transformation. The smartphone is the key to the digital economy there. Jumia is excellently positioned to benefit as a first mover from the huge growth potential in Africa - with over 1.4 billion people, a market that has barely been tapped into.

3. improved logistics and partnerships

Jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %) is making targeted investments in its logistics infrastructure and at the same time entering into strategic partnerships with local companies. This allows the delivery service to be extended to remote regions, which increases customer satisfaction and loyalty - a decisive competitive advantage.

4. market psychology & short squeeze potential

The share was heavily short-sold for a long time. However, with the operational recovery and positive newsflow, a rethink is beginning. A short squeeze is possible if further positive quarterly figures are released. Institutional investors are returning, while retail traders are rediscovering the story.

5. valuation remains attractive

Despite the price rally, Jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %) remains significantly undervalued in terms of the addressable market, future cash flow potential and the platform multiple. With continued operational improvement, the share price could multiply in the next two years - and at a fraction of the valuation of comparable international platforms.

I have decided to reinvest €20,000 and am focusing on a mix of growth and quality stocks with a long-term perspective. Here is my allocation:

5,000 € - Jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %)

Africa's leading e-commerce player is currently heavily undervalued. The company has lowered its cost base, operates more efficiently and will benefit from the growing internet and mobile payment market in Africa in the long term. For me, a speculative but promising small cap with a 5-10 year horizon.

7,500 € - AMD $AMD (-2,28 %)

AMD continues to impress with its strong product portfolio, particularly in the areas of AI, server CPUs and gaming. The valuation is much more favorable compared to Nvidia, with a high level of innovation at the same time. I see great potential here for the coming years, especially in the data center and AI segment.

2.500 € - PayPal $PYPL (-0,02 %)

Despite a weak share price performance in recent years, PayPal remains a strong player in the payment sector. The company is highly profitable, generates strong cash flow and could switch back into growth mode with the right strategic decisions. For me, it is a turnaround candidate with potential.

5,000 € - Airbus $AIR (+0,08 %)

Airbus is benefiting from global aviation growth in the long term. The order books are full and the Group is well positioned both technologically and geopolitically. In times of uncertainty and the re-industrialization of Europe, I see this as a solid industrial stock with a stable tailwind.

Conclusion:

I deliberately combine growth stocks (Jumia, AMD) with established quality companies (Airbus, PayPal). The focus is on long-term potential - I accept fluctuations. Time in the market beats timing the market.

What do you think - would you weight differently or do you have a position in one of these stocks yourself?

The e-commerce sector is currently showing strong bullish signals - with three exciting stocks in particular: Jumia, Shopify and Amazon.

$AMZN (+0,54 %) Amazon has impressed with strong Q1 figures. The cloud division AWS is growing dynamically again, the advertising business is booming and the AI hype is providing an additional tailwind. The Group is more profitable than ever in operational terms, which should further boost the share price.

$SHOP (+0,05 %) Shopify is benefiting massively from the trend towards the digitalization of retail. Following the successful restructuring in 2023, the company is now once again showing accelerated sales growth and solid margins. Particularly exciting: the Shop Pay network is increasingly becoming a real competitor to Apple's payment system.

$JMIA (+0,25 %) Jumia, on the other hand, is the real underdog with moonshot potential: the "Amazon of Africa" has massively streamlined its cost structure, focused on profitable growth and stabilized its operating business. The continent is at the beginning of an e-commerce revolution - which is exactly where $JMIA (+0,25 %) Jumia is perfectly positioned. The valuation is currently historically low, while the potential is huge.

A x10 in the summer? Sounds crazy - but is not unrealistic for microcaps with a structural tailwind. $Jumia could explode with just a few positive news (e.g. strategic partnership, turnaround figures or political impetus). Those who get in early could enjoy exponential gains in the summer.

Conclusion: $JMIA (+0,25 %)
$AMZN (+0,54 %) and $SHOP (+0,05 %) are the solid performers in e-commerce - but $JMIA (+0,25 %) is the speculative high-flyer to keep on your radar.

What a comeback! The Jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %) -share, often referred to as the Amazon $AMZN (+0,54 %) of Africa, posted an impressive +20 % yesterday - and has already gained well over 10 % today. And that's just the beginning!

After a long dry spell, Jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %) is now turning on the turbo. With growing digitalization, booming e-commerce in Africa and a company that is perfectly positioned, now is the time for vision to become reality. The market fantasy is back - and with it the investors!

If you don't get in now, you may miss out on one of the most exciting rebound stories of the next few years. The recovery rally is underway - and it's going to be crazy!

To the moon? Jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %) is ready. Are you ready too?

1. jumia $JMIA (+0,25 %) - Long-term potential in the African e-commerce market, currently heavily undervalued with a turnaround opportunity.

2. Celsius Holdings $CELH - Fast-growing company in the energy drinks segment with solid fundamentals and expansion plans.

3. AMD $AMD (-2,28 %) - Attractive valuation compared to competitors, good positioning in the CPU and GPU market, especially with regard to AI and data centers.

Interesting long-term opportunities with increased risk - diversification nevertheless remains important.

Jumia ($JMIA (+0,25 %) ) presented a mixture of strong growth in its operating business and financial challenges in the conference call for the fourth quarter of 2024. The marketplace showed positive momentum: orders for physical goods increased by 18% and active customers by 8%. Despite reduced marketing expenditure, Jumia was able to further strengthen its customer loyalty.

Nevertheless, macroeconomic headwinds weighed on the key financial figures. GMV fell by 12 % in USD, but grew by 13 % in constant currency. Sales fell by 23 % to USD 45.7 million (-2 % in constant currencies). The adjusted EBITDA loss deteriorated to USD -13.7 million and cash consumption rose to USD 30.6 million. Reasons for this include the currency devaluation, costs for the market exits in South Africa and Tunisia and investments in the consolidation of logistics.

CEO Francis Dufay emphasized two key priorities for 2025: sales growth and operational efficiency to improve profitability. Jumia plans to expand more into rural areas without increasing fixed costs and to further expand its product range. The company is increasingly focusing on international sourcing - particularly from China - and optimizing its vendor platform to attract new partners.

At the same time, cost management is to be further improved. Automation in the call center, the expansion of JForce agents (+39% to 29,000) and the consolidation of logistics space are intended to increase efficiency. Dufay remains optimistic: "With strict cost discipline and operational improvements, Jumia has a clear roadmap to profitability.

The following picture emerged from the analysts' questions:

Current trends in the first quarter of 2025: Analysts wanted to know whether the positive trend in orders would continue. Management was confident: growth of 15-20% year-on-year was realistic, supported by a disciplined cost focus.

Product range expansion: supply vs. demand side

Jumia sees the greater challenge on the supply side. Expanding the product range requires operational adjustments, better purchasing conditions and optimized tools for sellers. The long-term strategy is to attract more local and international suppliers in order to further improve the price-performance ratio for customers.

1P vs. 3P model: Will Jumia focus more on proprietary trading?

The company is sticking to its pragmatic approach: 1P (proprietary trading) is used when it is advantageous in terms of price and logistics. However, a massive shift in the mix is not planned.

Growth in physical orders vs. AOV (Average Order Value)

While the volume of physical orders is growing, the average order value has fallen. Jumia does not see this as a problem - in fact, a lower AOV enables broader market penetration. The decisive factor is profitability at order level, not the individual value of an order.

Logistics consolidation: can cost benefits be realized?

Jumia merged inefficient logistics centers in 2024. This change initially cost resources, but should bring efficiency gains in the long term: better control, lower fulfillment costs and higher productivity.

Fixed cost base: are further savings possible?

The savings made to date through cost reductions have largely been exhausted, but the management sees potential for a further 20% increase in efficiency. The current structure allows for a sales volume that is two to three times higher than at present.

Profitability target: What scaling is necessary?

Jumia must double or triple its volumes in order to become sustainably profitable with the current cost structure. The gross margin after fulfillment costs is between 6% and 8% and must be scaled through higher order numbers.

In summary, Jumia continues to focus on expansion, but is struggling with macroeconomic challenges. The company is optimizing its cost base, pushing ahead with digitalization and expanding its network - especially in rural areas. For investors with staying power, Jumia remains a speculative but potentially highly lucrative bet on the African e-commerce market.

I hope you enjoyed the summary!

I'm out for now - loss compensation and possible reallocation to $AMD (-2,28 %) , $TMDX (-1,93 %) and $JMIA (+0,25 %)