Source: Finchat

$PLTR (+6,4 %)

$NOW (+4,27 %)

$SPOT (+1,45 %)

$PANW (+3,72 %)

$SHOP (+3,56 %)

$CRWD (+6,51 %)

$FTNT (+3,32 %)

$ABNB (+2,19 %)

$COIN (+3,21 %)

$AXON (+0,37 %)

$RBLX

$NET (+4,95 %)

$HOOD (+7,05 %)

$TTD (+7,35 %)

$DUOL

$HIMS (+4,08 %)

Customs war special: winners, losers, outlook

Subscribe to the podcast to end the tariff war.

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Cr722K3NaLxspBot2mBNM?si=eORJfrQJR3eDLplP35EYxw

YouTube

https://youtu.be/QOXd_qExpKc

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/83-zollkrieg-spezial-gewinner-verlierer-ausblick/id1695869891?i=1000702108083

#trump
#donaldtrump
#zoll
#zölle
#tariffs
#sp500
#nasdaq100
#dowjones
$AMZN (+3,74 %)
$SBUX (+0,56 %)
$GOOG (+5,13 %)
$GOOGL (+5,72 %)
$NET (+4,95 %)
$PLTR (+6,4 %)
$VNA (+2,12 %)
$META (+3,74 %)

If $NET (+4,95 %) takes the 125.44 I'm in

Stop-buy order is at €1.45 on DE000HT1FBR8

Presumably because the New York Times reports on the Pentagon's war plans against China, which Musk was apparently briefed on at the Pentagon today.

In a military conflict between the two economic powers USA and China, the first "Line of Contact" would be a digital one: cyber attacks.

And even if only hypothetical scenarios are reported, this will probably already lead to an intensification of the constant mutual cyber attacks. Information is key.

• Cyberark $CYBR (+3,16 %)
• Palantir Tech $PLTR (+6,4 %)
• Check Point Software Technologies $CHKP (+1,71 %)
• Crowdstrike $CRWD (+6,51 %)
• VeriSign $VRSN (-2,16 %)
• Zscaler $ZS (+3,64 %)
• Okta $OKTA (+1,16 %)
• Cloudflare $NET (+4,95 %)
• Fortinet $FTNT (+3,32 %)
• Cisco Systems $CSCO (+0,43 %)
• Palo Alto Networks $PANW (+3,72 %)
• Akamai Technologies $AKAM (+3,78 %)
• BlackBerry $BB (+2,41 %)
• NetScout Systems $NTCT (+1,32 %)
• CommVault Systems $CVLT (+5,51 %)

Sources:

• The Pentagon set up a briefing for Musk on plans for a potential war with China.
• NYTimes Liveblog: Trump Administration Live Updates: Trump Rejects Idea of Letting Musk See Secret Plans for War With China

#newyorktimes
#china
#usa
#trump
#pentagon
#elonmusk

Revenue Forward 3Y CAGR and Forward P/S Ratio (sorted in ascending order)

Hims & Hers: 31.9% / 3.4x $HIMS (+4,08 %)

Spotify: 14.9% / 5.6x $SPOT (+1,45 %)

Airbnb: 10.4% / 6.8x $ABNB (+2,19 %)

Roblox: 19.4% / 7.3x $RBLX

Robinhood: 17.0% / 10.6x $HOOD (+7,05 %)

The Trade Desk: 19,4% / 11,1x $TTD (+7,35 %)

Fortinet: 14.4% / 11.5x $FTNT (+3,32 %)

Shopify: 22.6% / 11.9x $SHOP (+3,56 %)

Palo Alto Networks: 14.7% / 12.2x $PANW (+3,72 %)

ServiceNow: 19.5% / 13.4x $NOW

Duolingo: 26.7% / 13.7x $DUOL

Axon Enterprise: 20.9% / 15.5x $AXON (+0,37 %)

Crowdstrike: 22.5% / 17.2x $CRWD (+6,51 %)

Cloudflare: 27.2% / 20.9x $NET (+4,95 %)

Palantir: 30.8% / 52.6 $PLTR (+6,4 %)

Palantir and Hims & Hers are not the same...

Even if Palantir increases its sales by an ambitious 30% every year over the next 10 years and achieves a free cash flow margin of 45% (!), the current share price is still >20% above fair value (assumption: 3% terminal growth, 8% discount rate) - even though the share has already corrected by >30%.

Your opinion?

I am looking forward to $PLTR (+6,4 %) , $META (+3,74 %) , $NET (+4,95 %) and $SREN (-0,43 %) ....

• Cloudflare $NET (+4,95 %) reported earnings per share of USD 0.19 for the fourth quarter, which is USD 0.01 better than the analysts' estimate of USD 0.18.

• Revenue for the quarter was USD 459.9 million, above the consensus estimate of USD 452.04 million.

Forecast 2025

• Cloudflare expects earnings per share of USD 0.16 for the first quarter of 2025, which is below the analyst estimate of USD 0.18.

• Cloudflare expects revenue for the first quarter of 2025 to be between USD 468.00 million and USD 469.00 million, which is below the analyst estimate of USD 474.10 million.

• For the full year 2025, Cloudflare forecasts earnings per share of USD 0.79 to USD 0.80, which is above the analyst estimate of USD 0.74.

• Cloudflare expects full-year 2025 revenue of USD 2.09 billion, slightly below the analyst estimate of USD 2.10 billion.

$NET (+4,95 %) Earnings will come in a week.

Since Cloudflare has performed extremely well in recent months, I have partially sold a little less than my stake (approx. 40%)

Let's see what the earnings say. If the price comes back a little, I'll buy again.

How do you think the earnings will be?

... of infrastructure software.

The low cost of training and inference of the new model could trigger a new wave of AI adoption by improving the economics of AI projects and thus enabling wider use.

Increasing demand through lower costs:

DeepSeek's model offers superior inference performance at a disruptively low cost, which is expected to increase demand for AI solutions.

Bernstein points to previous examples, such as OpenAI's 4o-mini model, which promised lower prices with higher quality and increased usage by 50% within a quarter. Such effects could also occur again with DeepSeek.

Winners at the software infrastructure level:

Despite lower computational intensity, higher demand leads to opportunities for software vendors that provide the infrastructure for AI projects. This includes areas such as:

Data infrastructure (e.g. Confluent $CFLT (+5,87 %) )

Identity management (e.g. Okta $OKTA (+1,16 %) )

Observability tools (e.g. Datadog $DDOG (+1,55 %) )

Communication technology (e.g. Twilio $TWLO (+5,55 %) )

Browser integration and delivery (e.g. Cloudflare $NET (+4,95 %) )

Platforms for service desk AI projects (e.g. ServiceNow $NOW (+4,27 %) ) could also benefit, especially if they introduce a consumption-based pricing model that covers inference costs.