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Adding to my Navigator Company (ELI:NVG) position.
Here's the thesis:
Navigator
3-Year Performance:
Revenue: €2.1B (2022) → €1.9B (2023) → €2.0B est. (2024)
P/E Ratio: 8.5x → 10.2x → 9.8x (current)
Dividend Yield: 6.2% → 5.8% → 6.1% est.
Current Price: ~€3.20
Strong dividend yields above 5%, single-digit P/E, and solid balance sheet. Leading European producer of UWF paper and BEKP pulp with integrated operations in Portugal.
Semapa
Parent Company Metrics:
Market Cap: ~€1.2B
Navigator stake: ~70%
Annual dividends from Navigator: ~€80-90M
P/E Ratio: ~12x
Dividend Yield: ~4.5%
Catalyst: Potential Takeover
Semapa just sold its cement business Secil to $CMO (+0 %) Cementos Molins for €1.4B cash.
Potential scenario: Use proceeds to acquire remaining 30% free float (~€450M at current prices) and take Navigator private.
The Math Makes Sense:
Semapa already receives €80-90M annually from Navigator dividends (70% stake)
Full ownership = capture 100% of dividends (~€120M/year)
Payback period: ~4-5 years on the €450M acquisition
Eliminates holding company discount
Simplifies structure and cuts public company costs
Risk/Reward
Downside protected by fundamentals and 6%+ yield. Upside from potential takeover premium. Clean asymmetric setup.
NFA - DYOR
Thoughts on Navigator or Portuguese equitie
