Subscribe to the podcast to prevent China from taking Taiwan.

00:00:00 Weekend trading stocks

00:03:40 Market environment

00:16:00 Delta Air Lines

00:20:00 LVMH, Grok AI

00:43:30 Hermès, Richemont, Kering

01:03:20 TSMC, ASML

01:26:50 Coalition agreement

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/36OedAqU7ZcTYd3PpnHRFQ?si=99nQieH0Qh6Hy1QhQ5hQzA

YouTube

https://youtu.be/QMjS235So6I

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/85-lvmh-herm%C3%A8s-tsmc-koalitionsvertrag-gratis-aktienanalysen/id1695869891?i=1000703930602

$MC (-0,48 %)
$RMS (-0,21 %)
$KER (-0,54 %)
$DAL (+0,78 %)
$2330
$ASML (+0,64 %)
$GOOG (-0,89 %)
$GOOGL (-1,07 %)
$SPOT (+1,06 %)
$AAPL (+1,31 %)
$CFR (-0,36 %)

FED warns of higher inflation + Luxury goods group Hermes grows less than expected + Siemens Energy targets record high + Evotec realigns itself + Chip manufacturer TSMC increases profits sharply

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warns of higher inflation and slower growth due to Trump's tariff policy

• He emphasizes that the tariffs will probably lead to a temporary rise in inflation.
• The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision is due in May, although it is widely expected to remain unchanged.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warns that US government debt is on an unsustainable path and that this debt trajectory is a problem that needs to be addressed.
• Fed Chairman Powell explains that US economic growth is slowing, with moderate consumer growth and a wave of imports to avoid tariffs likely to weigh on GDP. According to Powell, the Fed intends to stick to the current rates for the time being until there is more clarity about the economic development.
• Fed Chairman Powell emphasizes that the role of the central bank is to ensure that tariffs only lead to a one-off price increase.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sees immigration as an important reason for the strong economic growth in the USA in recent years.
• According to his speech to the Economic Club of Chicago, Fed Chairman Powell sees the US economy in a solid position despite increased uncertainty, with the labor market close to full employment and inflation above the 2 percent target.
• The Fed is well positioned to wait for more clarity before any potential adjustments to monetary policy as it continues to analyze incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks, he said.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explains that the larger-than-expected tariffs so far are likely to lead to higher inflation and slower growth.
• US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell describes the US economy as 'solid' despite increased uncertainty and downside risks.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell believes the US central bank is in a good position to wait for further developments and gain more clarity for the time being.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explains that the US Federal Reserve is well positioned and is currently waiting for more clarity.

Luxury goods group Hermes $RMS (-0,21 %)grows less than expected

• The French luxury group Hermes continued to grow in the first quarter.
• However, the manufacturer of products such as Birkin and Kelly bags fell short of expectations.
• Turnover increased by 8.5 percent to 4.13 billion euros in the first three months of the year, as the EuroStoxx 50 heavyweight announced in Paris on Thursday.
• Adjusted for currency effects, growth amounted to 7.2 percent.
• Experts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected an increase of 7.9 percent.
• Business was particularly disappointing in Asia and the Pacific region, the Group's most important market.
• This makes Hermes the second major luxury goods manufacturer after LVMH to miss analysts' expectations.
• Hermes and LVMH are among the most valuable companies in Europe with a market capitalization of around 250 billion euros and 243 billion euros respectively.

Siemens Energy $ENR (+0,97 %)take aim at record high - strong outlook

• A surprisingly good quarter and an optimistic outlook for the year as a whole boosted Siemens Energy shares on Maundy Thursday.
• Compared to the Xetra close on the previous day, they jumped 7.6 percent to 62.12 euros in pre-market trading on Tradegate.
• This would bring them closer to their record high of 64.56 euros reached in mid-February in Xetra trading.
• The energy technology group's outlook is very strong and clearly better than expected, praised one trader.
• The market consensus is now likely to rise by double digits, wrote analyst Akash Gupta from JPMorgan.

Evotec $EVT (+3,16 %)realigns itself - wants to accelerate growth

• The pharmaceutical drug researcher and developer Evotec is realigning itself.
• According to a statement on Thursday, the company intends to focus on high-value services and therapeutic areas in future and reduce its project portfolio by around 30 percent.
• The company intends to withdraw from investments and focus on the two pillars of drug discovery & preclinical development and the Just - Evotec Biologics division in future, it said. In addition to the current cost program, the company plans to save more than EUR 50 million by 2028.
• Between 2024 and 2028, Evotec is targeting an average annual growth rate of eight to 12 percent.
• The margin on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) adjusted for exceptional effects is expected to reach more than 20 percent.
• In the past year 2024, turnover rose by 2% to EUR 797 million in a difficult market environment.
• Adjusted Group EBITDA fell from 66.4 million to 22.6 million euros.
• In the new year, turnover is expected to increase more strongly again, by around five to ten percent to between 840 and 880 million euros.
• Adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve to between 30 and 50 million euros.

Chip manufacturer TSMC $TSM (+2,17 %)increases profit strongly

• Demand for AI servers and smartphones as well as pull-forward effects before US tariffs came into force have boosted the profits of Taiwanese chip manufacturer TSMC in the first quarter.
• The surplus rose by a good 60 percent year-on-year to 362 billion Taiwan dollars (9.8 billion euros), as the world's largest chip contract manufacturer announced on Thursday.
• This is slightly more than analysts had expected.
• As already announced, TSMC increased its turnover by almost 42 percent to 839 billion Taiwan dollars.
• This is the strongest growth since 2022.
• Electronics manufacturers had stocked up on goods in US warehouses in anticipation of trade and shipping disruptions.
• The international trade disputes triggered by the US had recently weighed on sentiment in the industry.
• Recently, however, the US government exempted smartphones, laptops and other important electronics from special tariffs against numerous countries, including China.
• This is a relief for American suppliers of computer technology, most of whose devices are manufactured in Asia.
• It is also positive for US companies that are expanding their data centers for artificial intelligence.
• The devices are mainly built outside the USA by US companies such as Dell, using chips from the Californian company Nvidia, which come from Taiwan.
• Much of the technology was already less affected because many of the servers are assembled in Mexico and fell under exemptions for trade agreements.
• In addition, chip companies such as Intel and TSMC are currently in the process of expanding their production in the USA with new factories.
• It was only at the beginning of March that TSMC announced investments of 100 billion dollars in the coming years.
• However, there are now increasing signs that investment in data centers and AI chips could slow down somewhat.
• Microsoft, for example, has scaled back projects worldwide.
• Some analysts have recently warned that TSMC may have to lower its sales target for the current year in view of the global uncertainty and the potential economic consequences.
• To date, the company has expected sales growth in the mid-20 percent range.
• The company's outlook for the second quarter could now possibly alleviate these fears to some extent.
• According to information released on Thursday, TSMC expects sales of 28.4 to 29.2 billion US dollars for the second quarter of the year.
• This is more than the 27.2 billion US dollars expected by analysts on average.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Small expiry day | Stock exchange holiday in Oslo, Copenhagen | Stock exchange trading shortened in Stockholm

• ex-dividend of individual stocks
• PostNL EUR 0.04

• Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
• 07:30 Taiwan Semiconductor quarterly figures
• 11:55 Unitedhealth Group quarterly figures
• 13:00 American Express | Blackstone quarterly figures
• 13:30 State Street | Ally Financial quarterly figures
• 22:00 Netflix quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe
• 07:00 ABB Ltd | Evotec | Hamborner Reit Annual Report
• 08:00 Hermes International quarterly figures
• 09:00 Pernod-Ricard 3Q sales
• 10:30 Beiersdorf AGM
• 14:00 Evotec analyst and press conference
• 18:00 L'Oreal 1Q sales
• 18:30 L'Oreal analyst conference

• Economic data

08:00 DE: Manufacturing orders on hand and backlog February | Producer prices March FORECAST: -0.1% yoy/+0.3% yoy previous: -0.2% yoy/+0.7% yoy

08:00 DE: Building permits February | Hospitality sales February

08:00 CH: Trade Balance March

14:15 EU: ECB, outcome of the Governing Council meeting Deposit rate FORECAST: 2.25% previously: 2.50%

14:30 US: Housing Starts/Permits March Housing Starts FORECAST: -6.1% yoy previous: +11.2% yoy Building Permits FORECAST: -1.1% yoy previous: -1.2% yoy

14:30 US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSE: 225,000 previous: 223,000 | Philadelphia Fed Index April PROGNOSE: 3.5 previous: 12.5

ECB, PK after Governing Council meeting

16:00 US: IMF chief Georgieva, opening speech at the spring meeting of the IMF and World Bank

No time specified:

- US: Japan's Economy Minister Akazawa meets US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer

- US: US President Trump receives Italian Prime Minister Meloni at the White House

- MY: China's President Xi, state visit to Malaysia

First of all: I don't want to talk down anyone's investments here. Everyone has their own strategy - that is important and right. Nevertheless, I am sharing my personal assessment of luxury stocks such as LVMH, Christian Dior, Moncler, Prada, etc.

In the years 2020 to 2023 - during and after the pandemic - the luxury sector experienced a real boom. Restrictions in everyday life, no restaurant visits, canceled vacations - many people suddenly had more money in their bank accounts that they actually wanted to spend. And what happened? The luxury companies' marketing machines were running at full speed. Influencers, FOMO, exclusivity - luxury became the new must-have.

T-shirts that might cost 1 dollar to produce were sold for 500-1000 dollars. Bags without a logo were suddenly considered worthless. And champagne only Moët, please - nothing else. You either belonged - or you didn't. Clever hype, without question. The companies were delighted. Record sales, new stores, more staff.

But now? Inflation, price rises, economic headwinds. Official inflation may be 0.3-0.4 % - in reality, we are all feeling something completely different. Housing, food, travel - everything is becoming significantly more expensive. And this is having an impact: the middle class, which helped fuel the luxury boom, is slowly returning to its senses. A Gucci shirt for 1000 dollars? No longer bought. Many items end up on platforms second-hand at a 90% discount - in the hope of getting at least a fraction of the money back.

Of course, there is always a small target group that can and wants to afford real luxury - no question about it. But the mass hype? Over in my opinion. Similar to watches, Pokémon cards, expensive wine & whiskey - it was a trend. And trends pass.

The current economic and geopolitical outlook does not exactly point to a new boom in this sector. There is also a growing awareness: Paying $1,000 for a shirt that's already crumbling after seven washes doesn't exactly seem like a smart decision to many, looking back.

I don't want to make a blanket statement here: "Luxury is bad" - on the contrary, I love beautiful things just as much. But for me, it's not an investment, it's a desire, a pleasure - like a nice car or a good watch.

Conclusion: The current weakness of LVMH & Co. comes as no surprise to me. It will be interesting to see what happens next. But my capital is flowing into other sectors for the time being.

$MC (-0,48 %)
$MONC (-0,44 %)
$1913 (-0,3 %)
$BOSS (-1,14 %)
$RMS (-0,21 %)
$CDI (-0,92 %)
#luxus
#luxusmarken

From a technical chart perspective, I unfortunately see a realistic chance that we could see LVMH prices below €400 again in the near future.

Sorry 🫣

$MC (-0,48 %)

$RMS (-0,21 %)

And I mourn every day that I bought so little Hermes back then (2024). (exaggeration)

Not a good day for LVMH $MC (-0,48 %).

The champagne has been left in the fridge again (didn't expect to get it out either)

LVMH currently 5th largest position in my portfolio, according to the getquin Deepdive -> 3.8% portfolio share.

-40% from the all-time high and the benchmarks don't look good. I'm convinced in the long term and want to hold the position, but I'm still wondering whether it wouldn't make more sense to reallocate and enter later. Should I stay in the luxury sector or is the alternative a basic investment? I don't need the money at the moment and am thinking of holding on to it.

I'll answer this question for myself at the end of the post.

For now, here is an overview of the figures and classification. Sources: Earnings call and report presentation

(I know, dozens of others have already posted today, perhaps the classification and explanation will provide more clarity).

Overall view: Solid, but the shine is fading slightly

Turnover20.31 billion €

• -2 % reported (= incl. currency & portfolio effects)

• -3% organic (= real business development, adjusted)

Explanation:

Weak euro at the beginning of the year lifted US sales, weak yen depressed Japan, but overall it was enough for a better reporting result. Summarized at the end of the post for those interested.

Regional trends:

• Europe: +2 %

• USA: -3 % (despite good fashion performance, beauty weak)

• Asia excl. Japan: -11 %

• Japan: -1 % (base effect after +32 % in the previous year)

Explanation:

The decline in Asia is partly due to a "base effect": 2024 was extremely strong (especially in Japan due to Chinese tourists). This strong basis for comparison makes 2025 look much weaker, although the absolute level remains high.

2nd segment analysis: strengths and weaknesses at a glance

Fashion & Leather Goods (cash cow)

Turnover10.10 billion € (-5% organic)

Highlights:

• Louis Vuitton with successful Murakami collaboration (premium prices, sold out)
• New collections, change of creative directors (e.g. Givenchy, Loewe, Celine)
• Focus on "mix" strategy: sale of more expensive items instead of price increases

Classification:

Mix = higher-quality product mix, e.g. selling more €4,000 bags instead of €1,500 bags -> more sales per item and supports the margin without using official price increases.

Wines & Spirits (problem child)

Turnover1.30 billion € (-9 % organic)

• Cognac declining sharply (-17%) in USA & China
• Turnaround plan over 2 years announced, no details given, but focus is probably on stabilization & new brand activation

Watches & Jewelry

Turnover2.48 bn € (0% organic, sales stable)

• Tiffany: strong demand (Tiffany T, Tiffany Lock, Tiffany Knot, new flagship stores)
• Bvlgari, Chaumet, Fred: new collections & solid growth

Perfumes & Cosmetics

Turnover2.17 billion € (-1% organic)

• Dior: success with J'adore & high-end series "La Collection Privée"
• Guerlain, Givenchy, Aqua di Parma: new fragrances & ambassadors

Selective Retailing (Sephora, DFS, Le Bon Marché)

Turnover4.18 billion € (-1 % organic)

• Sephora: further growth in stationary retail (Brick & Mortar)
• Weakness in e-commerce, Amazon aggressive with prices... is Amazon a competitor?
• .. Yes, Amazon is a direct competitor, especially in the online beauty business
• -> Amazon is putting Sephora under pressure with aggressive prices. LVMH does not want to go along with this in order to preserve the brand value.
• DFS (duty-free stores, i.e. luxury stores in airports / tourist centers): few tourists in Hong Kong / Macau = pressure, weak figures

3. challenges in the market environment

Geopolitics & economy

• -> "In the case of tariffs, price is a lever that we are going to consider."
• "It will not be one size fits all... it can be very different depending on the brands, categories, pricing power."
• -> LV has three production facilities in the U.S., but it's rather around one third of local needs."
• "There is still capacity... we are looking at that obviously. It's something we can contemplate in a reasonable timeframe."

Interpretation:

• LVMH is not planning across-the-board price increases, but is considering them on a brand-specific basis in case tariffs come.
• LVMH is examining whether it can produce more in the USA if necessary, e.g. to avoid possible tariffs - but no immediate relocation.

• Asia: Weak demand development, but structurally intact (long-term growth of the middle class)

Buyer behavior

• "Aspirational buyers" (status-oriented middle class buyers) show restraint

• -> Demand currently weaker due to sentiment, not due to income

• -> Early indicator for cyclical decline in the luxury market

4. LVMH strategy & positioning

+ Strengths:

• Market leader with a broad brand portfolio (LV, Dior, Tiffany, etc.)
• Long-term increase in value through consistent investment in brand, stores, creativity
• Strong innovative strength in products & cooperations

- Weaknesses / risks:

• Profit growth is slowing down
• Luxury market as a whole in a "normalization phase"

5. bottom line, stay invested or reallocate?

LVMH remains a giant that invests selectively in weak cycles instead of cutting back.

Those who take a long-term view will benefit from the structural brand value.

In the short term, the share has no clear price driver in an environment of high interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and weakening demand in Asia and the USA.

My conclusion: (not investment advice, of course 👀)

>>> Hold position. <<<

______________

What can investors who want to get in on LVMH do?

Stay patient, buy in tranches if necessary

Why?

• The company remains fundamentally strong, but is currently facing challenges (tariffs, China weakness, US risk)
• The P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (~21 instead of 31 depending on the source) -> valuation is more attractive
• The market is already pricing in many uncertainties, but a real upward trigger is currently missing
• LVMH is qualitatively first-class in the long term, but dependent on the economy and geopolitics in the short term

Strategy tip:

Enter in partial tranches (e.g. x% now, x% on setbacks) + watch out for signals (e.g. stabilization in Asia, tariffs specified, Q2 sales trend)

What should investors who are currently in the red do?

Do not sell out of panic

Why?

• The operating basis is intact, LVMH is not cutting back but investing anti-cyclically
• The valuation is no longer excessive compared to recent years
• Luxury demand is cyclical, but structurally intact
• Declines in "aspirational buyers" are sentiment problems, not structural problems

What to do instead of selling?

• Consider adding to the position to improve the entry level (if there is still conviction)
• Or simply hold and wait for the next upward phase
• Alternatives: Possibly reallocate to Hermès $RMS (-0,21 %) (premium exposure) in case of returnees or Richemont $CFR (-0,36 %) (adequately valued, less US risk) if you want to stay in the luxury segment. Otherwise, for example, switch to Basis Investment.

______________

Exchange rate effect explains why -2 % instead of -3 %?

In the first quarter of 2025, LVMH reported organic sales growth of -3%, but the reported growth was only -2%. The difference is due to positive exchange rate effects, mainly from the US dollar.

At the beginning of the year, the euro was weak against the US dollar, which means

Sales in the USA (e.g. with Louis Vuitton or Sephora) were converted into euros at a more advantageous exchange rate -> this lifts reported sales.

At the same time, the Japanese yen was significantly weaker against the euro. Sales in Japan (e.g. with Dior or Bvlgari) bring in fewer euros when converted, although sales in yen have not changed → this has a negative effect.

Bottom line:

The positive effect from the weak euro against the dollar was stronger than the negative effect from the weak yen. This is why the reported growth of -2% is better than the operating loss of -3%.

______________

Thanks for reading! 🤝

______________

Sources:

Audio Webcast Q1 2025 Revenue:

https://voda.akamaized.net/lvmh/2083769_67e55782ce10a/

Presentation:

https://lvmh-com.cdn.prismic.io/lvmh-com/Z_0pc-vxEdbNPBim_LVMHQ12025.pdf

Hermes $RMS (-0,21 %) (very expensive 🤑 )

Ferrari $RACE (-0,18 %)

Lululemon $LULU (+4,35 %)

Just do it $NKE (+1,75 %) (supposedly cheap at the moment, please do not reach into the falling knife)

Booking $BKNG (-0,05 %)

Marriott $MAR (+2,24 %)

Ulta Beaty $ULTA (+0,24 %) and/or L'Oreal $OR (+0,66 %) (much more expensive)

Mercadolibre $MELI (+1,07 %)

Texas Roadhouse $TXRH (+1,44 %)

Chipotle $CMG (+1,31 %)

Fast Retailing $9983 (+1,07 %)
(doesn't fit with the others on the list but I could imagine it as a speculative stock)

"Everything" very expensive, luxury.

I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?