Mayr Melnhof

Bet on a CDU election victory in Germany

Well, it is foreseeable that the sceptres in our country will soon be realigned again. In the course of this, the losers ($MMK (+0,92 %) ) can be replaced by potential winners.

In this context, the shaken energy companies in particular should have more lucrative prospects again thanks to the influence of the lobby. For this I have chosen RWE $RWE (-0,18 %) for this.

Here are the reasons:

• In the wake of the shaken economic situation, particularly due to high energy prices (especially grid fees), there should probably be relief for large-scale industry in order to avoid further migration.
• The energy transition should no longer be seen as primarily necessary. It is therefore logical to conclude that the coal phase-out should be called into question once again in order to temporarily secure jobs and avoid overburdening lignite regions and the federal budget for restructuring programs.
• Furthermore, a potential government is currently showing little ambition for a possible return to nuclear energy, as a result of which coal and gas energy sources will logically continue to be of essential importance for the business location, which is likely to be in the interests of the lobby.
• In addition to this, RWE is showing particular ambition in the restructuring of the business area, which can therefore be seen from the fact that the operating margin is growing massively as renewable energy sources increase.
• The expansion into markets outside Germany and the EU is aggressive, which should allow them to benefit massively from various national subsidies.

In general, the prospects on the energy market for suppliers/producers are likely to improve again in the future as the Russia-Ukraine conflict eases, which in turn could make cheap raw material imports from Russia a reality again.

State shareholdings for potential loss-making transactions by corporations are also deeply rooted in the CV of the Christian Democrats, which is why the loss potential is likely to be very much in line with expectations.

Rising share prices with a target of €40-45/share and rising dividends are a pretty safe bet, in my personal opinion. (Tranche 1/3)

$MMK (+0,92 %) It was worth a try, but the market does not seem to have bottomed out yet.

So, out again after 10 days with damage limitation / SL. But remains on the watchlist 😅

$MMK (+0,92 %) Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG - a turnaround candidate for 2025🧐

The divisions are divided into 3 areas:

• Board & Paper
• Food & Premium Packaging
• Pharma and Healthcare Packaging

Due to weakening demand and oversupply on the market, the $MMK (+0,92 %) was recently hit hard, which is also reflected in the chart.

We saw the current price level around 10 years ago. In 2013 and 2014 it was already support, and before that in 2011 and 2007 it was resistance. Has the bottom been reached or will the slide continue?

The Q3 figures will be published shortly on 7 Nov ☝🏻

And what about the outlook?

Demand on the market is still subdued and the oversupply has not yet been reduced. What seems interesting is the good long-term customer base. Ultimately, the prospects of $MMK (+0,92 %) can also be derived from the prospects of its key accounts.

In addition to the solid customer base, the ongoing Cash & Profit Protection Program also appears to be bearing fruit. Cash flow has already improved significantly and should also have an impact on earnings in 2025.

My conclusion:

$MMK (+0,92 %) The company has been added to my watchlist. I can well imagine entering the stock soon with an initial small position and then seeing whether the market believes in a turnaround in the same way. If it turns upwards again, the position can be expanded with further tranches.

Do you know Mayr-Melnhof Karton? Do you already have it in your portfolio?

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You can find more information here https://mm.group/wp-content/uploads/MM-Group-investor-presentation-Oct-2024-1.pdf