As always, first the link to the first post, where you will also find the links to all the other parts https://getqu.in/cbIOkg/

Today there are a few more details on the indicators from part 3 https://getqu.in/9XGYtO/

As described in part 3, I start my analysis with the SMA 200 / 50 / 5 daysto get an overview of the trend.

Example $UBER (+1,55 %)

For me, an important setting for the SMA is that I always use the SMA regardless of my chart setting always on a daily basis. daily basis. This means that even if I have set the chart to weekly or 4h, it always shows me the SMA on a daily basis.

Example $UBER (+1,55 %) 1h hour chart - but the SMA are still on a daily basis, not like the default setting, which always refers to the chart - then the SMAs would be calculated on a 200 / 50 / 5 hour basis!

Next, I'll get the VRVP to see the volumes. I have set the chart to the range since Uber has been in an overarching sideways phase.

I can see the price area with the highest volume and the distribution where 68% of the volume has taken place.

My VRVP settings are as follows, I adjust the line size depending on the visible range - the larger the range, the larger the number of lines.

So, I now have a good overview of the trend after a few minutes.

Now it's time to continue with the VWAP. My anchored VWAP I place it in a prominent position for me. In this case the last low before the start of the sideways phase. This is how I see the "DNA" of Uber - How does Uber behave in the statistical areas of the volume-weighted average price.

For my short-term trades, I zoom into the close range, but the anchored VWAP remains. I only switch to the 1 hour chart and the last few months.

The white circles then show potential entries and exits for me. The orange circles at the bottom show the earnings, there's always a lot of movement😁

Of course, I also look in detail at the price action, i.e. the candles per time unit.

In principle, this describes my main procedure for determining the buy/sell point.

That's it 🤷‍♂️ has been working for me for a long time with the outcome as described in part 2 https://getqu.in/TVNdpR/

Because of the overview, I have hidden the VRVP in the VWAP views, but I always leave it on for my analysis.

Example anchored VWAP with VRVP and SMA5 for the short-term trend

Example anchored VWAP with VRVP and VWAP on a weekly basisI can see where the VWAP of the current week has moved. It's also nice to see how and where the big volumes of the week have positioned themselves 😁

So, that's a bit more detail on my setup. As you can see, with a little practice and routing, you can analyze a stock in a short time. For me, such an analysis usually takes no longer than 10 minutes and I know whether a trade makes sense for me and where to place my buy and sell orders.

PS: I have found a clever script on TradingView for some of my stock screener filters. You can always display some criteria live - in the chart at the bottom right

You can find it under the indicators: Ticker Dashboard For Better Stock Selection

$ADYEN (+1,95 %)
$MMK (-0,13 %)
$MRK (+2,06 %)
$KTN (-0,17 %)
$BRBY (-4,01 %)
$OMV (-0,18 %)
$VER (+0,94 %)
$BG (+1,67 %)
$VOE (-3,03 %)
$ZAL (-0,66 %)
$VRTX (+1,98 %)
$RDC (+1,29 %)

#trading

As always, first the link to the first post, where you will also find the links to all the other parts https://getqu.in/cbIOkg/

Thanks to the bad weather, the next part will be published before the weekend! 🌨🌨 Next week I'll be traveling for work from Monday to Wednesday - so long posts will be difficult. But maybe I'll be able to pick up some exciting insights from SAP & Amazon. 😊

I'm pretty busy, but if anyone happens to be at SAPPHIRE in Madrid... 🍻

Today I'll give you an insight into my trading setupbut first I'll briefly talk about the outcome bias. This is an important topic that can become a trap, especially at the beginning of trading.

Outcome bias

Outcome bias is the misconception that the quality of a trade is determined by the result. Anyone who enters into a trade on the straight and narrow and then makes a profit often thinks they have got the hang of it. I like to compare it to a casino: I bet on red, win and consider myself "strategic" 🤪😅

When trading, it is important to success or the strategy by the repeatability by repeatability. By clear rules. A strategic trade can lead to a loss. An intuitive decision can lead to a profit. Anyone who makes the latter the yardstick for their trading is undermining long-term success.

👉 Remember: In trading, it is not those with courage and luck who are rewarded in the long term, but the systematic ones!

This leads us straight to the first details of my setup.

What are my premises?

• I only trade shares - no derivatives, leveraged products, KOs, Forex or anything else

I have tried a few things, but for my trading behavior shares have proved to be the most sustainable with the best profit/loss ratio.

• Keep it simple - Only a handful of indicators

Over the years I have tried all kinds of indicators and oscillators. From RSI, MACD, Fibonacci, all possible trend lines, so that the actual chart progression was barely visible 🤪

• I only trade when it makes sense according to my rules

Trading not just for the sake of trading. Quality before quantity, if it doesn't fit or if time is tight, then I don't trade for a week or two.

Now that you know that my focus is only on equities, I'll move on to stock selection. In my opinion, this is just as important as chart analysis and deriving entry and exit points.

What are my filter criteria for screening?

• ADR Average Daily Range

The daily range is the range between the daily high and the daily low, a large range facilitates short-term trading, e.g. intraday or only a few days

• ADV Average Daily Volume
• $VOL
  Average daily volume multiplied by the last daily closing price

These two filters ADV and $VOL ensure the liquidity to get out of the trade at any time.

• Market capitalization

I am not a fan of penny stocks and very small market capitalization

• Gap greater than 5% on earnings

• Upcoming earnings

I also like to trade around earnings, there's often a lot of movement.

In general, I like stocks that are moving in a sideways trend, or prices that are at the VWAP or at one of the outer edges of the deviation bands.

What are my indicators for chart analysis?

• SMA 200 / 50 / 5 for trend determination

Attention ONLY for trend determination - is not used for entry/exit points!

• VRVP Visible Range Volume Profile - the volume profile on the Y-axis. You can usually see it on the left-hand side of my charts. This shows me volume areas where there was a lot of trading. I derive my entry/exit points from this indicator and the VWAP

• VWAP Volume Weighted Average Price - shows me the average volume-weighted price at the various time levels. I usually look at this on a monthly and weekly basis. For very short-term trades such as intraday also on a daily basis or on a session basis. I then use the "anchored" VWAP for the entry/exit prices. In return for the fixed values of the VWAP such as month, week or day, I can place it exactly where I want to see the VWAP from. Points for anchored VWAP are swing changes.

• Volume per time unit I usually hide it again after the first glance in order to keep a clear overview. It's about seeing the interest per candle.

Conclusion: I only use SMA and volume, no more, but also no less.

PS: A short "deepdive" on the indicators, the exact settings, etc. will follow in a separate post👆 https://getqu.in/Ka18zh/

In general, I always start my analysis on the stock's home exchange. First a quick look at the last 10 years in the weekly chart, then I continue with the daily chart looking at the last 2-3 years and then the close range of the last months or even just days, depending on how the time horizon of my trade is set up. In the close range, I also like the 4h, 1h or 15min chart. The whole thing is overlaid with the 3 SMAs 200 / 50 and 5 days for the short-term trend.

Once I have a good overview of the trend, I move on to the 2nd layout with VRVP and VWAP or aVWAP. I am always happy when significant volumes of the VRVP coincide with the VWAP or the bandwidths 1 and 2 of the anchored VWAP. According to my statistics, the success rate is highest here. Depending on which exchange I want to trade on, I then also set the chart to this exchange.

I could write endlessly about volume in connection with the VWAP, but that would go beyond the scope of this article. Volume highs, volume lows, POC, volume area, deviation bands 1 and 2, etc...

To see how I use these indicators, you are welcome to read my posts on $NOVO B (+3,18 %) or also $UBER (+1,55 %) to see them. Or also my short 5min analysis for $MRK (+2,06 %) which I recently created for my compatriot @7Trader recently. You can find them all in the feed of my profile from the recent past.

Should I go into more detail on charts & inferences in my future trading posts? Let me know in the comments!

So, that's it again for today - have a nice week!

Click here for part 4

https://getqu.in/Ka18zh/

$RDC (+1,29 %)
$KTN (-0,17 %)
$ZAL (-0,66 %)
$MMK (-0,13 %)

#trading

$BRBY (-4,01 %) Today saw the first major setback since the beginning of April. The trailing SL did what it is supposed to do. As soon as a trade is positive, profits are hedged with a trailing SL. It went better than expected, also OK 😅

What else has happened today?

$UNH (+3,35 %) Yesterday also got out due to a trailing SL at € 285.65, today the first tranche of 10 shares was bought again at € 269.

$UBER (+1,55 %) Another 40 shares were added

$MMK (-0,13 %) was increased by another 45 shares

Mayr-Melnhof daily chart:

When the anchored VWAP from the last swing change hits a volume peak, this is usually a good support. This has held at least since the beginning of May, but 100% is nothing on the stock market...

#trading

Link to the first post https://getqu.in/cbIOkg/

I will also link all parts in the first post and pin the first post in my profile.

This part of the post is about the following 2 topics

• Trading versus Buy&Hold
• What are the requirements for trading

To Buy&Hold I don't need to explain much more here 😉 It's a well-known and proven method, particularly suitable for more passive investors or those who don't want to deal with the stock market on an ongoing basis. Start with a savings plan - "time in the market" pays off!

When trading the situation is somewhat different. Active trading is required here. "Timing the market" is the motto. With the appropriate knowledge, a careful approach, good risk management and, above all, discipline, it is far more than just "gambling" or "gambling".

When I analyze my losing trades, the cause is almost always a lack of discipline, such as impatience or poor risk management. Sounds simple, but it's not... "The spirit was willing, the flesh was weak" 🤪🤷‍♂️

Conclusion:

• B&H and trading are not mutually exclusive, but can be combined well and sensibly. Part of my trading income, for example, flows into my B&H share on an ongoing basis.

• Trading means being responsible inform - plan trade - execute trade!

• Without a genuine interest in active trading and having fun trading, this will not work. If you just follow tips or influencers, you will almost certainly end up with the ominous 80% who only lose money (if only because the timing is no longer right).

The last two points in the conclusion are a good transition to the topic "Prerequisites for trading". In my view, in addition to the points already mentioned, the following aspects are essential in order to be sustainably profitable:

• Money management
• A trading tool
• Knowledge of chart analysis "a fool with a tool is still a fool"
• Discipline

Money management:

On the subject of money management, I would like to refer you to one of my older posts. It is essentially about determining the capital investment and the position size based on the maximum acceptable loss.

A proven guideline in trading is: Never risk more than 0.5% to max. 1% of your available capital per trade. You can find details on this in the following post https://getqu.in/tzhXqc/

Trading Tool:

Since trading is all about "timing the market", there is no getting around a trading tool. There are several tools on the market, and almost all of them offer a free version to get you started. The free versions are usually not sufficient for professional trading, as important indicators and data are missing. However, they are perfectly adequate for starting out and testing a little.

Tip: Use the free trial months of the subscription models to decide for yourself whether and which paid subscriptions are of interest to you.

I use TradingView https://www.tradingview.com and I'm really happy with it. In addition to the chart tool, there are lots of functions such as share screeners, market information, watchlists, price alerts, calendars for events such as earnings and dividends and a news feed. There is also a community, but I haven't used it yet.

Tip for beginners: TradingView also offers a demo account (paper trading), where you can safely start trading and test your strategies without using real money. Paper Trading — main functionality — TradingView

If you are interested in TradingView, I can offer you a referral link (just ask for it in the comments - I don't want to actively post the link here). Then we both get 15$ each credited to the fees. PS: I am not a Finfluencer and have nothing else to do with TradingView. It is not a source of income nor the goal of these posts - it would just be the usual friend-referral.

Knowledge of chart analysis:

Well, as written above, "a fool with a tool is still a fool". Of course, you can't do it without learning and dealing with the subject. The trading tools are all very helpful, but without understanding what you are doing with them and how to use the charts, indicators or oscillators, it won't work. Fortunately, today there are lots of tutorials on YouTube, communities etc. where you can acquire knowledge free of charge.

There will be more on chart analysis in the last part of the articles when it comes to my trading setup.

Discipline:

This last point is the most important; in combination with the 3 previous points, discipline is the key to success. Even long-time traders are subject to FOMO with accompanying ill-considered or not properly analyzed trades. This often ends the way it must... "Know yourself and your trading behavior!"

Please note, this article only reflects my experience. There are many different approaches to trading - there is no right or wrong. In the end, everyone has to find a setup that suits them.

Actually, I wanted to cover the first three points today, but as this post is already quite long, I'd rather end it in the spirit of TL:TR and will cover the points "Time spent" and "Trade frequency" in the next post. Possibly also "Profit and loss trades YTD 2025", which would fit in with the trade frequency / number of trades.

PS: as I'm traveling for work for the rest of the week, there won't be any more parts until next week.

Click here for part 2

https://getqu.in/TVNdpR/

#trading

In the feed of the linked shares you will find posts from the last few days/weeks from me $UBER (+1,55 %)
$ADYEN (+1,95 %)
$MMK (-0,13 %)
$VRTX (+1,98 %)
$RDC (+1,29 %)
$KTN (-0,17 %)
$NOVO B (+3,18 %)
$MRK (+2,06 %)

$KTN (-0,17 %) Was bought last week at earnings, but is struggling at the POC. For the holding period of a few days, the spread is enough for me 😉

Even though I fundamentally think a lot of Kontron and I think it would be a good B&H stock, from a short-term trading perspective it will be exchanged for stocks where I see more potential in the coming days. Capital goes into $MMK (-0,13 %) and $VRTX (+1,98 %)

POC...price area with the highest volume in the visible area (yellow dashed line)

The yellow channel shows the standard deviation from the volume-weighted average price VWAP. The upper edge is currently almost exactly at the POC

#trading

Bet on a CDU election victory in Germany

Well, it is foreseeable that the sceptres in our country will soon be realigned again. In the course of this, the losers ($MMK (-0,13 %) ) can be replaced by potential winners.

In this context, the shaken energy companies in particular should have more lucrative prospects again thanks to the influence of the lobby. For this I have chosen RWE $RWE (+0,62 %) for this.

Here are the reasons:

• In the wake of the shaken economic situation, particularly due to high energy prices (especially grid fees), there should probably be relief for large-scale industry in order to avoid further migration.
• The energy transition should no longer be seen as primarily necessary. It is therefore logical to conclude that the coal phase-out should be called into question once again in order to temporarily secure jobs and avoid overburdening lignite regions and the federal budget for restructuring programs.
• Furthermore, a potential government is currently showing little ambition for a possible return to nuclear energy, as a result of which coal and gas energy sources will logically continue to be of essential importance for the business location, which is likely to be in the interests of the lobby.
• In addition to this, RWE is showing particular ambition in the restructuring of the business area, which can therefore be seen from the fact that the operating margin is growing massively as renewable energy sources increase.
• The expansion into markets outside Germany and the EU is aggressive, which should allow them to benefit massively from various national subsidies.

In general, the prospects on the energy market for suppliers/producers are likely to improve again in the future as the Russia-Ukraine conflict eases, which in turn could make cheap raw material imports from Russia a reality again.

State shareholdings for potential loss-making transactions by corporations are also deeply rooted in the CV of the Christian Democrats, which is why the loss potential is likely to be very much in line with expectations.

Rising share prices with a target of €40-45/share and rising dividends are a pretty safe bet, in my personal opinion. (Tranche 1/3)

$MMK (-0,13 %) It was worth a try, but the market does not seem to have bottomed out yet.

So, out again after 10 days with damage limitation / SL. But remains on the watchlist 😅

$MMK (-0,13 %) Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG - a turnaround candidate for 2025🧐

The divisions are divided into 3 areas:

• Board & Paper
• Food & Premium Packaging
• Pharma and Healthcare Packaging

Due to weakening demand and oversupply on the market, the $MMK (-0,13 %) was recently hit hard, which is also reflected in the chart.

We saw the current price level around 10 years ago. In 2013 and 2014 it was already support, and before that in 2011 and 2007 it was resistance. Has the bottom been reached or will the slide continue?

The Q3 figures will be published shortly on 7 Nov ☝🏻

And what about the outlook?

Demand on the market is still subdued and the oversupply has not yet been reduced. What seems interesting is the good long-term customer base. Ultimately, the prospects of $MMK (-0,13 %) can also be derived from the prospects of its key accounts.

In addition to the solid customer base, the ongoing Cash & Profit Protection Program also appears to be bearing fruit. Cash flow has already improved significantly and should also have an impact on earnings in 2025.

My conclusion:

$MMK (-0,13 %) The company has been added to my watchlist. I can well imagine entering the stock soon with an initial small position and then seeing whether the market believes in a turnaround in the same way. If it turns upwards again, the position can be expanded with further tranches.

Do you know Mayr-Melnhof Karton? Do you already have it in your portfolio?

@7Trader
@BamBamInvest
@Smudeo
@Goldmarie
@Petzi-Port

You can find more information here https://mm.group/wp-content/uploads/MM-Group-investor-presentation-Oct-2024-1.pdf