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Earnings next week 🗓️

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What the current week on the stock market has shown me

The current stock market week is not quite over yet, but we can already make some observations and draw some conclusions:

1) Prices can also fall!

Yes, prices do not only move in one direction; they can also fall. We have already seen in recent months that individual companies have been selectively punished after disappointing quarterly figures; see $NKE (+9.5%), $SBUX (+0.07%) or $PATH (+0.36%). So far, the broad market has nevertheless continued to rise. This week shows that even the broad indices $IWDA (+1.17%) or $VWRL (+1.32%) can fall by several percent. The fact that top-heavy indices such as the NASDAQ 100 $QQQ can suffer daily losses of more than 3% is something that many people seem to be realizing only now. Not every 2% correction is a dip and has to be bought. We can see how quickly things can go down further.

2) Getquin symbolizes the whole drama

In recent weeks, there have been an increasing number of articles in which the author has expressed a supposed fearlessness about investing at the all-time high or overweighting individual stocks that are performing strongly. Personally, I find it unsurprising to read articles on the subject of $NVDA (+3.67%) , $SMCI (-0.88%) or most recently $DRO (+6.63%) noticed. The motto "All-in Nvidia" or "Buy the Dip" was celebrated and now you can already see the first posts of the kind "Help I bought Nvidia at the ATH and don't know if I should sell". Above all, this shows that far too few people give sufficient thought to what will happen if a share falls by 10, 20 or even 30%. Far too few people think for themselves, develop a watertight investment thesis or think about the current meaningfulness of the valuation.

To be clear again: I have nothing against the companies mentioned, they are just an obvious example. Many people blindly chase after the current hot stocks and then justify it with empty phrases or talk about momentum. The fact that momentum can also go in the other direction is often forgotten.

3) Hype is and remains hype

In particular, sectors that have only known one direction in recent times are now particularly affected. Be it the chip sector or technology stocks in general. After every valuation was justified by the enormous growth forecast for 2027, we now seem to be facing at least the beginning of disillusionment. For the first time, people seem to be questioning what the supposed AI champions actually want to earn their money with in order to cover the enormous investment costs. Statements with this tenor from the earnings call of $GOOGL (+0.99%) now also seem to be fueling doubts among investors.

Investing on the stock market is and remains psychology: shares that are currently doing well must continue to do well (recency bias) and what is being talked about the most is then directly the best investment. Prices are mainly made by people and people often follow the masses. It is and always will be important to think about your own investments independently of the general opinion and to act anti-cyclically. But that is easier said than done.

Stay tuned,

Yours Michael Scott