$PDD (+1.17%)
$601318
$EH
$OKTA (+0.86%)
$MDB (-0.72%)
$3690 (-3.43%)
$KSS (-1.09%)
$ANF
$CRWD (+2%)
$SNOW (+0.2%)
$HPQ (-0.27%)
$NTNX (+3.45%)
$NVDA (-0.36%)
$DHER (+0.83%)
$LI (+0.73%)
$DELL (+2.09%)
$S (+2.45%)
$IREN (-3.14%)
$ULTA (+0.41%)
$MRVL (+0.07%)
$AFRM (-3.82%)
$ADSK (-0.22%)
$BABA (+9.35%)

$CCL (+3.4%) One of my long-term stocks has been trimmed back from overweight (4%) to normal size (2.5%). A few months ago I bought at €15 and €17 and have now partially sold at €25. The share will not disappear completely for me. I am hoping for a recovery of €30+. If it falls below €20 again, I will slowly overweight again. This game has been played from time to time for the last 5 years and the positive management of the debt, in addition to the constant good news, slowly speaks for a breakthrough.

$BAYN (+2.7%) I bought in at the beginning of April at €22, but have now decided to close the position at just under €27. I actually wanted to hold the share long, but somehow I can't warm to it. Perhaps it will find its way back into my portfolio at some point.

$AVGO (-1.89%) In the April crash, I bought the stock at €151 (2% weighting) using a Lombard loan (10% portfolio size), among other things, and the position has now been closed at €224. More was not my target recovery to old ATH.

$9618 (+1.74%) Unfortunately, this position was closed with a minus of 13%. The reason for this was the annual rebalancing in which the China portion had become too large for me. As I was convinced by $1211 (+1.06%) , $BABA (+9.35%) and $PDD (+1.17%) JD had to give way.

Portfolio purchase:

$OXY (-0.4%) Bought another small tranche. After the 10% slump, I had some capital left over, which was invested at 36.50. One of my larger individual bets with a 5% portfolio weighting.

A new addition to the portfolio is $TX (+2.06%) with a small position of 1%. The reason sounds stupid, but it's a little chat GPT experiment. I wanted to be told which stocks were selected according to the Columbia Buffet approach. I was given 5 suggestions, some of which were frankly garbage. But this stock somehow got me hooked. Which is why I took the risk with only 1% of my portfolio (just over 1k).

Note:

My single stock portfolio Smartbroker plus makes up 2/3 of the asset class equities.

1/3 are Etf's with Trade Republic.

In total, equities make up 90% of my investable assets.

In addition to my three equity ETFs, TR holds my real estate REIT ($O (+0.24%) approx. 5%), as well as my gold ETC ($SGBS (-0.49%) 2.5%) and my gold miner Etf ($GDXJ (+1.72%) 2.5%) which make up the remaining 10%.

Approximate total assets 100k (more like 95k :/ due to volatility) but debt free (except for a 3.5k balance on the Lombard loan). I have been investing since 2020 and am 28 years young.

That doesn't look very optimistic. 🤔

$NVDA (-0.36%)
$BABA (+9.35%)
$PDD (+1.17%)
$JD (+1.67%)
$EL (-0.8%)
$TCOM (+2.43%)
$BIDU (+3.37%)

Source: www.michael-burry.com

PDD Holdings operates the Pinduoduo and Temu platforms, two of the most important e-commerce initiatives today.

📌 Highlights of the report:

✅ Asset-light and scalable model, with strong use of data, gamification and digital inclusion - focused on price-sensitive consumers.

🛒 Pinduoduo dominates inland China with more than 900M MAUs, while Temu is growing rapidly in the West, already present in +70 countries.

💰 The company grew 67% CAGR (2019-2024) and, even with gross margins falling slightly (Temu's impact), it maintains solid operating margins (27.5% in 2024) and an ROIC of 94% (!).

💼 $PDD (+1.17%) has a robust balance sheet, with over $45B in cash, which could be used for strategic buybacks or acquisitions in the future.

🌍 The company operates in a competitive global market, facing players such as Alibaba, Amazon and Shein, but differentiates itself with an agile structure, a focus on cost-effectiveness and social user acquisition strategies.

⚠️ Risks? Yes: fierce competition, China-US regulatory tensions, and possible pressure on margins. Even so, PDD's model is proving to be resilient and highly efficient in converting revenue into cash.

📉 At the current price, the company appears to be fairly undervalued, offering a very interesting margin of safety for those who want exposure to the Chinese market.

📊 A company with solid fundamentals, structural growth, and potential for appreciation in one of the most dynamic sectors of the global digital economy.

🔎 If you want to know more about this investment opportunity, visit the full analysis at: https://substack.com/@dalemcapital/note/p-161005463

#stockanalysis
#pdd
#investimento

JD.com - The Chinese e-commerce giant with potential for 2025?

JD.com ($9618 (+1.74%)) is one of the leading e-commerce providers in China and has established itself as a serious competitor to Alibaba. After struggling with economic challenges and regulatory problems in recent years, the question is: can JD.com regain its former strength in 2025?

Overview: What does JD.com do?

JD.com is a Chinese company that sells a wide range of products through its platform, including electronics, household goods and groceries. It operates both traditional e-commerce retail and an extensive logistics network that enables it to deliver products faster and more efficiently.

✅ JD Mall: The main platform for B2C e-commerce, which has a large market share in China.

✅ JD Logistics: A leading logistics company that also operates for other brands and platforms.

✅ JD Health & JD Digits: Subsidiaries operating in the health and digital services sectors.

✅ Collaborations with Walmart and Google: Global partnerships to expand reach and innovative strength.

JD.com relies on an integrated business modelthat ranges from logistics and cloud services to digital healthcare solutions, which sets the company apart from other competitors.

Competition: Who are the competitors?

🔸 Alibaba $9988 (+8.79%) (Tmall, Taobao): The largest e-commerce competitor in China with a broader market coverage.

🔸 Pinduoduo $PDD (+1.17%)
: An emerging competitor that has established itself through group buying and low prices.

🔸 Amazon $AMZN (-0.21%)
: Even though Amazon is less dominant in China, it still has a presence in the international market, especially in cloud services.

🔸 Meituan $3690 (-3.43%)
: Another player in online retail and on-demand services, especially in food delivery.

JD.com has the advantage that it has a strong logistics network and a good B2B business However, it continues to be burdened by competition and regulatory challenges in China.

Opportunities: Why could JD.com make a comeback in 2025?

✅ Strong growth in logistics and cloud: JD Logistics and JD Cloud offer promising growth opportunities, especially in international business.

✅ Expansion into rural areas: JD.com has a strong presence in rural areas of China and could benefit from broader urbanization and increasing demand.

✅ Resurgent e-commerce market: Despite economic uncertainties, the Chinese e-commerce market is expected to grow in the long term - JD.com could benefit greatly from this.

✅ Innovations in FinTech and healthcare: JD.com has made great strides in FinTech and digital health solutions in recent years. These sectors could provide stable revenues in the future.

✅ Reduced regulatory uncertainty: After years of regulatory challenges, the situation in China could stabilize, making the market attractive for JD.com again.

Risks: What could continue to weigh on JD.com?

⚠️ Regulatory uncertainties: The Chinese state still retains significant influence over the market, and new regulations could weigh on JD.com.

⚠️ Competitive pressure from Alibaba & Pinduoduo: Strong competition from Alibaba and Pinduoduo remains a major challenge.

⚠️ Weak consumption in China: Weak economic recovery and falling consumer spending in China could slow growth.

⚠️ Dependence on B2B: JD.com generates a large proportion of its sales in the B2B sector. A slowdown in this market could affect growth targets.

⚠️ Geopolitical risks: Tensions between China and the West could have a negative impact on business activities, particularly in international trade and cloud services.

Conclusion: turnaround opportunity or value trap?

JD.com has the potential to benefit from the growth areas of logistics, cloud and FinTech in 2025. The company has been through tough times in recent years, but the fundamentals remain strong. If JD.com can maintain its market position in China and successfully expand into new business areas, it could make a remarkable comeback.

What do you think? Can JD.com take off again in 2025 or will it remain under pressure? 🚀

Hello,

I wanted to hear your views on the China stocks / China situation. Basically I am bullish on China but open to all arguments / points of view.

I am currently still holding $BABA (+9.35%) (Alibaba) $1211 (+1.06%) (Byd) $PDD (+1.17%) (Pindudu) $9618 (+1.74%) (JD). I have sold $700 (+1.33%) (Tencent) (+- 40%) in the last China high October / September.

At that time I sold all China stocks (alibaba byd tencent) completely (almost optimal moment through 2 sales tranches) due to the exaggerated reaction after the press conference, despite my personal bullish attitude, with 10-50% profit margins per stock. After the exaggeration flattened out, I got back in (approx. 10-20% lower than the exit point) in November / December. Tencent was replaced by jd and pdd but will continue to be monitored.

I am currently in the situation of considering jumping out again, but I see the current performance for almost 1-2 months differently than in the first phase in October.

The shares have not risen as sharply and the current news is, in my opinion, different from back then. This makes it difficult for me to see the current situation as an exaggeration like back then, when there was only the government promise. Furthermore, many of the shares are established companies with currently still low -> fair valuations. Do you think the world is slowly making up for the neglect or is it just being exaggerated again?

Many large investors have generally been getting back into China for years in medium to large style, which is why I am still bullish.

I am aware of the political risk, which everyone has been reminded of since the Alibaba crash.

I'll share my individual share portfolio to show you the current weighting there.

I have another portfolio with TR with etfs, 1 reit (approx. 10%) and 1 physical gold and miner etf (both 5%). I have just under 40% individual stocks/60% etfs reit gold cash

See opportunities here

had no china values

now already

tranche, second tranche will come with the price growth then

Podcast episode 73 "Buy High. Sell Low."

Subscribe to the podcast to beat cancer.

00:00:00 Donald Trump inauguration

00:15:40 Tempus AI A40EDP $TEM (+15.79%)

00:26:00 Groupon $GRPN (+1.38%)

00:30:20 Palantir $PLTR

00:35:00 Insider Trading

00:40:20 Netflix $NFLX (-3.37%)

00:59:00 Adobe AI $ADBE (-0.82%)

01:01:00 Alibaba $BABA (+9.35%)
$9988 (+8.79%)

01:07:40 Baidu $BIDU (+3.37%)
$9888 (+3.7%)

01:15:15 JD com $9618 (+1.74%)
$89618
$JD (+1.67%)

01:16:40 PDD Holdings $PDD (+1.17%)

01:19:00 Xpeng $9868 (+1.14%)
$XPEV (+1.6%)

01:21:00 Nio, BYD, Xiaomi, Huawei $9866 (+6.67%)
$NIO (+6.65%)$1810 (+1.03%)
$XIACY (+2.01%)
$81810

01:28:00 Li Auto $AUTO (+0.87%)
$LI (+0.73%)

01:35:20 Bitcoin $BTC (+0.29%)

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4xzXvdMeMtWs5fgYoQaNHU?si=3JuxaaqaQ2KM55PHh5IYWg

YouTube

https://youtu.be/tz6CaqL8wtc

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-73-netflix-tempus-ai-palantir-alibaba-bitcoin/id1695869891?i=1000685089794

#bitcoin
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