Aloha

this portfolio is very good. brand new. Only bought most of the positions a few weeks ago. Deep seek helped with the creation but I made some mistakes myself. For example Atom ETF was own idea and also many single stocks.

Should I $NUKL (-2.64%) sell immediately or wait a few months?

What to do with $MCD (+0.5%) keep to profit from my own consumption or get out?

Get out of Mercedes, BMW and Porsches and only invest in $VOW3 (+1.32%) only?

Home Depot and Waste Management out because they are $VUSA (-1.13%) included ?

$KO (+2.3%) out because no excess return?

this Diageo $DGE (+2.85%) catastrophe! i wanted to profit from social stupidity but more and more in the red since many months? Buy more DGE or sell immediately?

$SHEL (-1.69%) bought because of lotus blossom, brings luck for depot

Bye

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/qwz6dsaeNi4?si=uQ4zQHw4NJjDUFFf

Monday:

$MCD (+0.5%) McDonalds delivers surprisingly poor figures. In the USA, sales fell by 1.4 % in the 4th quarter; experts had only forecast a fall of 0.4 %. Adjusted profit also fell by 5 % to USD 2.04 billion. However, McDonalds grew worldwide and surprised analysts positively.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/fastfood-mcdonalds-mit-ueberraschend-hohen-einbussen-im-us-geschaeft/100106947.html

Tuesday:

Turnover at the French luxury goods conglomerate $KER (+1.01%) Kering declines significantly. The main reason for this is weak figures at the Italian subsidiary Gucci. Overall, turnover fell by 12% to 17.2 billion euros in 2024. The slump in consumption in China in particular is weighing on earnings. However, Pinault is seeing the first signs of recovery from China.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/geschaeftszahlen-im-newsblog-tui-erwirtschaftet-hoeheren-gewinn-jahresziele-unveraendert-/24098412.html

Wednesday:

$TMV (+1.21%) TeamViewer shines with strong figures and is optimistic. Double-digit growth is planned again from 2027. The Göppingen-based company aims to generate sales of one billion euros as early as 2028. On balance, Teamviewer generated a profit of 123.1 million euros in 2024.

https://www.t-online.de/finanzen/boerse/ticker/teamviewer-will-mittelfristig-zurueck-zu-zweistelligem-wachstum/0DB4980021007F08/

US inflation data is somewhat hotter than expected, causing the markets to slump. Experts were expecting an inflation rate of 2.9% for January, which turned out to be 3.0%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/verbraucherpreise-us-inflation-steigt-im-januar-ueberraschend-auf-drei-prozent/100106814.html

$CSCO (-0.55%) Cisco raises its forecast and exceeds sales expectations. The reason for this is the high demand from companies for AI infrastructure. This is one of the reasons why Cisco is also increasing its dividend.

https://www.ariva.de/amp/ki-boom-hilft-netzwerkausruester-cisco-11534732

Thursday:

The world's largest and probably most controversial food company is growing again. $NESN (+4.08%) Nestlé is planning a dividend increase. Sales increased by 2.2 % excluding exchange rate effects. Profit fell by 2.9 % to 10.9 billion Swiss francs.

https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/nestle-waechst-wieder-aus-eigener-kraft-ld.1870435

Friday:

The US economy 🇺🇸 suffered a double setback in January. Retail sales and industrial production were down. Retail sales fell by the most in two years. This was due to the low temperatures and customs duties. Industrial production fell, as economists had expected. The production of motor vehicles in particular was responsible for the decline.

https://de.tradingview.com/news/invezz:f6400bd08600c:0/

These are the most important dates for the coming week:

Monday: 00:50 GDP figures (Japan)

Wednesday: 20:00 FOMC minutes (USA)

Thursday: 08:00 Producer prices (DE)

Can you think of any other dates? Write it in the comments 👇

#bip
#japan
#fomc
#erzeugerpreise

Today I would like to give you an insight into the analyst conference of $MCD (+0.5%) (McDonald's) analyst conference that took place following the fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings announcement today. It was an interesting discussion that highlighted some key points and future strategies for the company.

First of all, it was emphasized that McDonald's did not quite meet expectations in 2024especially in terms of sales growth. Nevertheless, the resilience of the system and the efforts of employees, franchisees and suppliers were highlighted. An important point was the impact of the E. coli outbreak in the USAwhich had a negative impact on results in the fourth quarter. However, assurances were given that food safety is the top priority priority and that the problem has now been largely resolved. A full recovery is expected by the beginning of the second quarter.

The value strategy was emphasized as particularly important. In the USA, the "McValue" platform was introduced in order to consistent and attractive offers and attractive offers. Value programs are also being strengthened in international markets to respond to the ongoing pressure on consumer spending.

Digital initiatives remain a key focus, which is why the company continues to target 250 million active 90-day loyalty program users and USD 45 billion in annual system sales by the end of 2027. The number of active users is currently over 170 million and $30 billion in revenue was generated through the loyalty program in 2024.

The expansion of the restaurant network is also progressing. The aim is to reach 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027. 2,200 new openings are planned for 2025, with a focus on the USA and international markets.

During the Q&A session, a number of interesting questions were raised by analysts who shed light on important aspects of the business:

The analysts wanted to know how customers are reacting to the new "McValue" platform. It was reported that the uptake of the $5 Meal Deals and the "Buy One, Add One for $1" offers is in line with expectations. Customers appreciate the flexibility of the Buy One, Add One offer and breakfast has proved particularly strong. The average order value for a $5 Meal Deal in the US is over $10, which shows that these offers encourage additional purchases.

The analysts were also interested in the development in the international markets. It was reported that trends are positive in most markets, but there are challenges in the UK and Australia. The situation in France and Canada has improved.

Analysts asked how the growth of digital and loyalty offerings is impacting sales performance. It was confirmed that digital orders and loyalty customers are spending more. spending.

The analyst conference provided valuable insights into McDonald's challenges and opportunities. It became clear that the company continues to focus on its strategic priorities and is optimistic about the future.

The share is up 5% today.

Stay tuned!

McDonald's $MCD (+0.5%) has published its figures for Q4 2024 and failed to meet expectations. The US business was particularly disappointing with a -1.4 % decline in sales in Q4, which was mainly due to an E. coli outbreak caused by contaminated onions on Quarter Pounders.

📊Q4 vs. estimates [1]:

Sales: $6.39 billion vs. $6.48 billion -> ❌ -1.4 %

EBIT: $2.87 billion vs. $2.94 billion -> ❌ -2.3 %

EPS: $2.83 (adjusted) vs. $2.86 -> ❌ -1.0%

Despite the earnings miss, McDonald's shares rose by 4.73% in pre-market trading. This move suggests that investors may have been encouraged by other aspects of the company's performance or strategic outlook, such as its strong digital growth and expansion plans [2].

📊 Comparable sales vs. systemwide sales Q4 and FY2024 [1, 3]

Comparable Sales (comparable sales figures):

• These are sales from existing restaurants that have been open for at least 13 months. They show organic growth without the effect of new locations.

Q4 2024: +0.4 % worldwide

• USA-1.4 % (decline due to E. coli incident and weak consumer demand)

• International Operated Markets (IOM*): +0.1 % (weak growth, particularly in the UK)

* Countries and regions in which McDonalds itself is more heavily involved (e.g. Germany, UK, France)

• International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL*): +4.1 % (strong growth, led by Japan & Middle East)

* Countries and regions in which McDonalds does not operate its restaurants itself, but licenses local partners and McD. also receives its revenue share and fees

Full year 2024: -0.1 % worldwide

• USA: +0,2 %
• IOM: -0,2 %
• IDL: -0,3 %

Conclusion:

The license markets showed strong growth in Q4 (+4.1 %), while the USA (-1.4 %) and Europe (IOM +0.1 %) stagnated. Over the year as a whole, however, comparable sales remained slightly negative worldwide (-0.1%).

Systemwide sales (system-wide sales):

This comprises the total sales of all McDonald's restaurants, i.e. both existing and new locations, regardless of whether they are operated by McDonald's itself or by franchise partners.

Q4 2024+2 % worldwide

Full year 2024: +1 % worldwide

Conclusion:

Growth in system sales was higher than in comparable sales, as McDonald's expanded worldwide and opened new stores.

🚀 How McDonald's plans to grow again in 2025 [3]:

More restaurants worldwide:

• 2,200 new locations are planned, with capital expenditure of between 3.0 and 3.2 billion US dollars.
• Of these, 1,600 will be in licensed markets, i.e. in countries where McDonald's licenses its restaurants to local partners and does not operate them itself.
• 1,000 of these in China alone.
• Net growth: 1,800 new restaurants (new openings minus closures).
• McDonald's is also aiming to reach 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027.

More investment in technology & digitalization:

• Global Business Services (GBS): McDonald's is centralizing accounting, IT and marketing for several countries. This centralized management saves costs and increases efficiency.
• More focus on mobile orders & loyalty programs:
• Sales with loyalty customers increased by 30% to $30 billion in 2024, 175 million active users in the last 90 days use the program, which helps stabilize sales and gain market share.
• The number of active digital users is expected to increase to 250 million in 2025

Increasing investments (CapEx = Capital Expenditures):

• More money for new stores, remodeling and digital offerings.
• Annual increase in investment of $300-500 million by 2027.

Aiming for higher profits:

• Adjusted operating margin was 46.3 % in 2024, McDonald's plans to further increase the operating margin of 46.3 % in 2025.

Capital returns to investors:

• Dividends remain stable.
• Share buybacks with excess cash flow stabilize the share price.

Outlook Q1 - 2025 [4]:

📉 Risks and challenges

- Economic pressure on consumer spending, particularly in Europe.

- Challenges in maintaining growth in a highly competitive quick service restaurant (QSR) industry.

- Potential currency risks impacting earnings.

- Managing the recovery from the recent E. coli incident in the US.

- Navigating market saturation and operational efficiencies in global markets.

📌 Overall conclusion

McDonald's maintained a strong adjusted operating margin of 46.3%. Despite challenges in consumer spending, particularly in Europe, McDonald's outperformed the competition in key markets such as France, Spain and Germany, mainly thanks to its robust digital and loyalty programs [3].

McDonald's had short-term problems in 2024 (especially in the US), but is focusing on long-term growth with:

• Expansion in Asia, especially China.
• More digitalization & stronger customer loyalty through the successful loyalty program.
• More efficient business structures (via GBS) and better margins.

I personally hold my position and think that the upcoming challenge for the company can be mastered 🚀🍔

Thank you for reading! 🤝

__________

Sources:

[1] https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/MCD-Q4-24-Earnings-Release.pdf

[2] https://de.investing.com/news/transcripts/transkript-des-earnings-calls-mcdonalds-verfehlt-prognosen-im-q4-2024-aktie-steigt-93CH-2869453

[3] https://web.quartr.com/pressreleases/2209628

[4] https://web.quartr.com/companies/5595

...and hello $EQAC (-1.51%) .

This leaves the remaining individual stocks in my portfolio:

$TSM (-0.58%)

$GOOG (-2.32%)

$ALV (-0.14%)

Although I now only hold ETFs, I will probably keep these three and simply stop investing. They're doing quite well as it is. 🥳

• $MCD (+0.5%)
  Sales: USD 6.39 billion compared to analyst estimates of USD 6.46 billion (no year-on-year growth, a miss of 1.1%).

• Adjusted EPS (earnings per share): US$2.83 compared to analyst expectations of US$2.86 (a miss of 1%).

• Operating margin: 44.9%, up from 43.7% in the same quarter last year.

• Sales development in existing stores (same-store sales): No change compared to the previous year (in the same quarter of the previous year, growth was 3.4%).

McDonalds
$MCD (+0.5%) reported fourth quarter EPS of $2.83, $0.07 worse than the analyst estimate of $2.90.

Revenue for the quarter amounted to $6.39B, compared to the average estimate of $6.51B.

A declining appetite among US consumers for McDonald's burgers has caused the fast food chain to suffer a bigger drop in sales than feared.

Sales on the domestic market fell by 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, as the company announced on Monday. Analysts had expected a fall of 0.4 percent. This was the sharpest decline since the peak of the coronavirus pandemic almost five years ago, when restaurants restricted their operations to drive-in and delivery.

Although restaurant visits increased slightly, customers spent less money in the stores on average. Adjusted profit fell by five percent overall to 2.04 billion dollars.

Among other things, the brief infestation of coli bacteria in some McDonald's US branches in October had a negative impact. The pathogens got into burgers of the Quarter Pounder variety, known in Germany as Hamburger Royal TS, via onions from a supplier.

Customers also tightened their spending belts due to economic uncertainties. The USA is the company's largest market.

Internationally, things went somewhat better for the fast-food chain, especially in the Middle East and Japan. Comparable sales grew by 0.4 percent worldwide, surprising analysts who had expected a decline of 0.63 percent.

The earnings call and financial release of McDonald's will take place today at 2.30 pm. $MCD (+0.5%) is taking place.

I will definitely look at the numbers after work and go through the transcript of the call.

Before we talk about the numbers today at noon, I have the most important milestones to get you in the mood 😬 [1].

Estimates Q4:

Webcast: https://mcdonalds.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1701211&tp_key=93524fdfcc

1948 - The birth of the fast food principle

Richard and Maurice McDonald open their fast food restaurant in San Bernardino, California. Their revolutionary concept is based on standardized processes, self-service and a focused menu.

1953 - The golden M, the so-called "Golden Arches", adorn a restaurant in Phoenix, Arizona, for the first time.

1955 - Ray Kroc launches the franchise model

The entrepreneur Ray Kroc recognizes the potential of the McDonald's system, takes over the expansion rights and opens the first franchise restaurant in Des Plaines, Illinois. This marks the start of global expansion.

1957 - Introduction of the QSS principle (quality, service, cleanliness)

McDonald's lays the foundation for its global success with the QSS principle. To this day, quality, fast service and cleanliness are central components of the corporate model.

1967 - Internationalization begins

McDonald's takes the first step towards global expansion with openings in Canada and Puerto Rico.

1968 - The Big Mac is invented 🍔

Franchisee Jim Delligatti develops the Big Mac - a burger that becomes an icon. Today, it is one of the best-known products in the world.

1971 - McDonald's comes to Germany 🇩🇪

On December 4, the first German McDonald's restaurant opens in Munich. The success is enormous: today there are over 1,400 branches in Germany.

1983 - First McDrive in Germany 🚗💨

The first German McDrive opens in Ludwigsburg. The concept captures the spirit of the times and quickly becomes an important part of the business model.

1986 - Introduction of the Big Mac Index 💰

A business magazine develops the Big Mac Index as a tool for international price comparison. It is still used today as a humorous but revealing indicator of purchasing power parities worldwide.

1999 - 1,000 restaurants in Germany & 25,000 worldwide

McDonald's reaches a significant milestone with the opening in Berlin: the 1,000th restaurant in Germany! At the same time, the 25,000th restaurant worldwide is opened in the USA.

2003 - First McCafé branch in Germany ☕

McDonald's opens the first McCafé in Germany on Hohe Strasse in Cologne. The brand focuses on coffee specialties and snacks - with great success.

2008 - McCafé becomes one of the leading coffee brands in Germany

Almost 500 McCafés are now represented in Germany. This makes McDonald's one of the leading providers in the German coffee market.

2017 - Launch of the McDonald's delivery service 🚴‍♂️

Initially launched in Munich and Cologne, McDelivery will be expanded to 20 cities by the end of the year. Today, the delivery service has become an integral part of many major cities.

2018 - The McDonald's app is launched 📱

The new app not only offers mobile ordering and payment, but also an attractive bonus program. For the first time, customers can collect points and receive rewards.

2019 - Sustainability moves into focus 🌍

McDonald's Germany launches an initiative to reduce packaging waste. The changeover at McFlurry®, McSundae® and milkshakes will save over 1,000 tons of plastic every year.

2023 - McPlant® is launched 🌱

With the launch of McPlant® nuggets, McDonald's is expanding its range for flexitarians and increasingly focusing on plant-based alternatives.

From a small burger joint in California to the world's largest fast food company, the story of McDonald's shows how innovation and adaptability ensure long-term success.

McDonald's currently accounts for just under 4.5% of my portfolio, so I'm looking forward to the figures. High commodity prices, consumers had less money in their pockets and the menu prices have also further scared off customers 😬. Let's see what effect the new economy menus have.

The competition is growing, let's see what the golden M can do today.

#McDonalds

__________

Source:

[1] https://www.mcdonalds.com/de/de-de/ueber-uns/geschichte.html

Next week won't be boring either 🫡

There's something for everyone 😁

What numbers are you looking forward to? 🧐

$MCD (+0.5%)
$VRTX (+0.82%)
$KO (+2.3%)
$SPGI (-0.29%)
$VRT (-7.34%)
$PANW (-3.05%)
$CVS (-2.18%)

$MEDP (-0.94%)
$ACLS (-1.73%)
$THC (-4.21%)
$TTD (-4.67%)
$CSCO (-0.55%)
$APP (-6.81%)
$HOOD (-7.16%)
$DE (-2.08%)
$AMAT (-1.89%)
$ABNB (-5.19%)