$INTC (-1.64%) is in early talks with $AMD (-3.56%) to manufacture some of AMD’s chips at Intel fabs, per Semafor. Most AMD designs are currently made by TSMC, which still leads in advanced tech. Any deal would likely cover less advanced chips, with no details yet on scale or investment.
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408
1Wk·
SoftBank update ℹ️ - share price gains of over 150%
I have already described here several times this year why I think that the SoftBank Group share $9984 (+2.83%) is a top pick when it comes to AI. Now the share price confirms this assumption with an increase of more than 150% since April.
What is the reason for the sharp rise? The answer is short and clear: AI. The reorientation towards everything to do with AI in order to "become the number 1 platform provider for AI" has caused the share price to explode.
So many new projects were announced in 2024/2025 that it was impossible to keep up. The 500 billion dollar Stargate project in the USA and the 40 billion dollar financing round for OpenAI were particularly prominent.
Added to this is a strategic investment of 2 billion dollars in Intel $INTC (-1.64%)the announcement by the portfolio company ARM $ARM (+0.31%) to switch from pure IP licensing to its own chip design, a JV with OpenAI for enterprise AI in Japan, a JV with TempusAI $TEM (+1.97%) for medical AI in Japan, a JV with Intel for the development of energy-efficient memory chips (Saimemory) an IPO of the portfolio company and No. 1 fintech in Japan PayPay in New York, the plan together with NVIDIA $NVDA (-0.8%) to convert the Japanese telecommunications network for AI workloads (AI-RAN), several data centers under construction (independent of Stargate)........ The list could go on and on, but I think the message is clear.
In my opinion, no company is so broadly positioned when it comes to AI. From energy (SoftBank Energy), to the chips used (ARM, Ampere, Graphcore), to the data center as a whole (Stargate, others), to the AI itself (OpenAI) and the AI applications (various). They are active along the entire value chain.
I was also skeptical at first about how to manage all of this at once, also in terms of the sheer amount of work involved, but the first results are becoming visible. SoftBank is building 2 data centers with a capacity of 1.5 GW with OpenAI as part of Stargate. The fact that they are only involved in part of the Stargate data centers and then only with OpenAI is very positive, as I consider the projects on this scale to be very realistic. In addition, there are no conflicts about the technology to be used and SoftBank can clearly favor its portfolio companies in everything.
It will also be interesting to see how the 40 billion financing round progresses. The second half should be invested by the end of the year. With an agreed valuation of 260 billion dollars (plus cash 300), SoftBank should hold around 10% of OpenAI after the financing round. Now that NVIDIA has announced that it will invest 100 billion in OpenAI, although it is still unclear when, how and at what valuation, this is likely to have a massive impact on the value of SoftBank's stake.
The two Vision Funds are also doing well and have recovered from the difficult years. They are now another positive influence on the company's profits. However, they are becoming less and less important as more and more staff are withdrawn from them to work on the AI projects. Fewer new positions are also being added and some older ones are being liquidated.
I am particularly interested in how SoftBank's chip design ambitions will develop over the next few years. Now already in possession of three chip designers (ARM, Ampere Computing and Graphcore), a partnership with Intel (Saimemory) and a strategic stake in the Japanese giga start-up Rapidus, the focus is becoming increasingly visible. How quickly will the restructuring of ARM take shape? Will individual portfolio companies be merged? Will Rapidus, with its impressive interim results, be a success?
These questions will continue to occupy me over the next few years and I will continue to keep a close eye on the milestones achieved so far. The 2030s could definitely be transformative for the SoftBank Group.
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1Wk·
SK Hynix expands: 20 new EUV systems planned within 2 years
$HY9H (+4.62%)
$ASML (-0.29%)
$INTC (-1.64%) . $MU (+2.16%)
SK Hynix is now the market leader in memory, also thanks to greater use of EUV than its competitors. According to current expansion plans, this is set to continue: Within just two years, around 20 more EUV systems are to be purchased to equip new factories and are intended for HBM and the latest memory solutions.
Number of EUV systems to double
SK Hynix already uses around 20 EUV systems from ASML in the Netherlands in its production. According to South Korean media today, this number is set to double by 2027, which could make SK Hynix one of the three largest customers.
According to analyses, SK Hynix would then have as many or even more EUV systems in use than Intel, which is rather atypical for a memory manufacturer. The number 1 in EUV is of course TSMC, which is unbeaten, while Samsung is number 2 as the world's second largest foundry, because it was here, in the logic sector, that EUV established itself many years earlier.
Intel completely missed the boat and is now having to pay for its failure with extensive problems including mass redundancies and new partnerships for financial injections.
SK Hynix, on the other hand, is extremely active in the new EUV systems. The manufacturer has been using EUV since 2021, and the South Koreans have already taken delivery of their first high-NA EUV system. This is now being used to test when it will be worth using in series production.
Micron is taking exactly the opposite approach: Here, EUV has only just been ramped up and is now slowly being integrated. However, the difference of four years does not seem to make as much of a difference in memory production as it does in the logic sector, as Micron also continues to make a lot of sales and high profits. After four years without EUV, Intel had once again fallen behind TSMC in terms of processor production.
The new EUV and later also high-NA EUV systems should help SK Hynix to bring new products to market faster and with good yields. The advantage of the newer equipment is always that the number of exposure steps can be reduced, resulting in fewer errors. Ultimately, this saves time and costs, even though the initial investment of several hundred million euros per exposure system is huge. The scanners are to be used in both the M15X factory extension in Cheongju and the M16 factory in Icheon.
www.computerbase.deSK Hynix expandiert: 20 neue EUV-Systeme binnen 2 Jahren geplant
1Wk·
Sometimes you have to be satisfied with the little things.
Yesterday evening my short on $INTC (-1.64%) was stopped out after all. But ok. There is still something left.
1111
11 Comments
@Iwamoto I no longer have my Oracle long (unfortunately I bought it too early), gold is running with a long OS, which I posted. I also bought a long on Siemens Energy a week ago during the setback. Also long on Rheinmetall, Hensold, NVIDIA and inliners on Siemens, CoBa and MTU... If you are interested in which OS I have exactly, just write me which one and I can send you the WKN... Long on MELI and Adobe would certainly also be interesting right now... ✌️ HG
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1Wk·
Today I bought extremely unpopular shares 🦍
Good morning,
Today I actually bought the first tranche of the following shares:
Intel - Arm Holding - Nokia - Pfizer
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$INTC (-1.64%) Nobody believes me, but I actually wanted to buy Intel last week before the significant rise, after the rise I speculated on a setback, which didn't turn out to be so strong and today I simply bought.
Why Intel? What distinguishes Intel from AMD and NVIDIA?
Intel is the only one that develops and also produces itself. Of course, this also entails risks, but it is also the case that Intel is the only non $MU (+2.16%) is the only non-Asian chip manufacturer that has the latest ASML machines. Is that not one of the reasons why even Nvidia is now investing in Intel... By the way, I actually bought Micron today, simply to increase the size of the position.
In my opinion, anyone investing in Intel today should have a lot of patience. As you know, I don't have much of that, so maybe this will be my gym.
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$ARM (+0.31%) Arm develops the Arm architecture for processors, which are particularly efficient and do not require cooling, which is why you find them as standard in smartphones, tablets and other devices, and sells the licenses to Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung and Nvidia, for example.
They are involved in almost all smartphone chips, earning money from the license without having to bear any production costs themselves.
The risks are a very high valuation, in which a lot of growth is already priced in. Strong dependence on the smartphone market, competitors could contest market shares and the company is very dependent on the Asian market.
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$NOKIA (+0.84%) is quite well positioned and a leader in 5G network technology. For example, it controls over 29% of the 5G market outside China and is already in the lead in 6G... The business model is quite cyclical, investment intensive and the technological change is very fast.
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$PFE (+0.52%) has made many strategic acquisitions in recent years. The acquisitions of Seagen and currently Metsera, among others, show that Pfizer is making targeted investments in growing and lucrative therapeutic areas. Whether the pipeline will be successful remains to be seen and is probably one of the greater risks.
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I have mentioned some of the risks, there are probably countless. The stocks fit into my portfolio quite well, as I mainly invest in boring ETFs and the weighting of these individual stocks is too low to significantly jeopardize my basic investment. If things go really badly, the money is gone, if things go reasonably badly, I have dividend stocks 🤪
1111
8 Comments
But now also hold for 2 years and don't sell again at - 4% 👀😊
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1Wk·
Podcast episode 111 "Buy High. Sell Low."
Subscribe to the podcast so that Jusos fail.
00:00:00 Beware of private equity at Trade Republic
00:12:00 Private equity shares
Blackstone A2PM4W
Apollo Global Management A3DB5F
EQT A2PQ7G
CVC Capital Partners A40B55
KKR A2LQV6 (+315% in 5 years)
BXPE - Fund
00:47:30 Duolingo A3CWBB
01:20:00 Grab, Uber & Tesla
01:39:29 AMD, Intel & Nvidia
01:53:00 Podcast ban by Jusos
Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1NOvAmyAvSABmECZ0ZLQ5i?si=9AvXWSulRg2Tv4yNnLVBug
YouTube
Apple Podcast
$BX (+0.17%)
$NVDA (-0.8%)
$INTC (-1.64%)
$AMD (-3.56%)
$GRAB (+1.67%)
$UBER (-0.29%)
$APO (-1.26%)
#traderepublic
#privateequity
#fonds
#etfs
#podcast
open.spotify.com#111: Vorsicht vor Private Equity bei Trade Republic, Duolingo, Grab, Uber, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, Podcast-Verbot durch Jusos
1Wk·
Dates week 39
As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/sE7jANUi8eM?si=4EI7ZTjZvFiGjBAj
Wednesday:
Consumer credit, the worst form of debt, is becoming increasingly popular. With fewer barriers to online purchases, more and more people are turning to services from $KLAR (-0.72%) Klarna & Co.
The EU is coordinating with the USA and wants to adopt the next sanctions package. According to von der Leyen, the package is aimed at cryptocurrencies, the energy sector and banks. In particular, oil refineries in India and China that process Russian oil are to be affected. The crypto sector is also likely to be included, as it has been easy to circumvent sanctions with cryptocurrencies up to now. Russian banks are also to be denied access to the European financial system.
For the first time this year, the Fed lowers
year by 0.25 percentage points. This is in line with expectations, even if some had hoped for 0.5 percentage points. According to the Fed 'to avoid a recession'.
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/fed-notenbank-leitzines-senkung-100.html
Thursday:
🚀 $NVDA (-0.8%)
NVIDIA relies on $INTC (-1.64%)
Intel! 💥
With an investment of USD 5 billion, NVIDIA secures a 4% stake in Intel - and with a clear goal: to revolutionize the future of AI chips for data centers! 💡🔌
This partnership could redefine competition in the field of high-performance processors and pave the way for powerful AI applications. 🧠💻
Friday:
Surprisingly large drop in producer prices in Germany. Prices fell by 2.2% in August compared to the same month last year. Energy prices are primarily responsible for the fall.
These are the most important dates for the coming week:
Tuesday: 10:00 Economic data (EU)
Tuesday: 15:45 Economic data (USA)
Friday: 01:30 Inflation data (Japan)
Can you think of any other dates?
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2Wk·
Sep 19 / Nvidia Bets on Intel
A $5B Lifeline or Market Madness?
Now here’s something I didn’t think I’d write: Nvidia just poured $5 billion into Intel. Jensen Huang, king of AI, wrote a check to the company everyone had basically written off as yesterday’s news. The result? Intel’s stock spiked almost 30% in a single day, adding over $30 billion in market cap, while Nvidia cruised higher too – though nowhere near as much. Apparently, Intel did something right: just a few weeks ago the government bought into the company, now it’s the AI leader. Intriguing.
The details: Nvidia is buying about a 4% stake in Intel at $23.28/share, instantly becoming one of the company’s biggest shareholders. The two giants plan to co-develop products – imagine CPUs + Nvidia GPUs tightly linked together, new system-on-chips, advanced interconnects and the whole AI data center. Nvidia is basically complementing its chip food chain. Jensen Huang is creating a Superverse here right now, with Intel as a means to an end. A pawn in Nvidia’s game. Although, Intel can’t complain, since Jensen Huang is essentially throwing a lifeline to the struggling foundry. On paper, this makes sense: Nvidia wants deeper control of the stack, Intel desperately needs a story that isn’t “we’re behind TSMC again.” Because frankly, the only selling point for Intel compared to competitors is its “Made in U.S.A.” label.
Here’s the thing though: I’m not sure if this is Intel’s rebirth or just Nvidia being clever. Intel’s foundry business still hasn’t proven itself. Advanced nodes? Still lagging. Manufacturing yields? Still in question. Yes, this partnership gives them credibility and maybe some volume, but it doesn’t erase a decade of missteps overnight. At the same time, Nvidia looks like a genius here – for a relatively small investment (for them), they bought influence over a giant that still matters. In my opinion, this looks like a win for Nvidia and a neutral for Intel, which they couldn’t refuse.
Personally, I think this deal says more about the market than about Intel. A 20% spike for a mega-cap because of one partnership? That just reinforces how the market perceives Intel (and Nvidia). Confidence in the foundry is largely gone, and people try to cling to any positive news story they can find.
Still, I’ve got to hand it to Nvidia. They’re not just selling chips, they’re shaping the entire industry. And for Intel, this is at least a shot at redemption. I don’t own Intel, I think they’ve lost their edge a long time ago, I don’t like the strategy or management’s surrender to Trump – but I’ll definitely keep watching, you never know. Because if they can execute with Nvidia at their side, this might actually be the start of a comeback. If not? Well, then we’ll remember this as the day Jensen Huang pulled off another great move to solidify his legacy.
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2Wk·
+++Why is Nvidia investing in Intel?+++
My thesis:
In a Taiwan/China conflict, Trump would never support Taiwan and therefore $2330 (TSMC) would be doomed, which is why the government recently invested $9 billion in $INTC (-1.64%) invested. In addition, Trump could have put pressure on Nvidia to have a chip manufacturer in the USA, which is why $NVDA (-0.8%) is now also investing $5 billion.
See Trump's contribution:
If it's a security play, Intel could be exciting if the investments are sustainable...
How do you see Intel? I'm staying on the sidelines as the company now has to develop with the money and show whether it can achieve the turnaround.
1111
5 Comments
What I find most interesting is that the government got 15% for 9 billion and $NVDA just 4% for 5 billion. You can work out the increase in value of the government's stake after the share price rise. It's almost as good as mine.😂😎
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•2Wk·
AMD Responds to NVIDIA–Intel Deal
Following the announcement of $NVDA (-0.8%) $5B investment and partnership with $INTC (-1.64%) , $AMD (-3.56%) emphasized that its strategy remains unchanged. In a statement to Bloomberg, the company said: “Our belief has not changed that we can continue to win share from Intel. We are confident in our ability to keep innovating, grow market share, and advance AI as a top strategic priority.”
The message underlines AMD’s determination to stay competitive in CPUs and AI, despite the landmark alliance between two of its biggest rivals.
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