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11Here is a clear overview of the quarterly figures due next week.
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In the following post, I would like to discuss the new US tariffs and their potential economic consequences. The background and the potential impact on inflation and companies, as well as the winners and losers on the stock market, will be discussed.
Again, of course, the stocks mentioned do not constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of possible beneficiaries or losers of tightening trade restrictions. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.
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In this post:
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The topic of "tariffs" is currently not only very present in the media, but the term "tariffs" has also been discussed with a strong increase in the past earnings calls of companies in the S&P 500, as the following chart shows [1].
The chart shows that the discussion about tariffs has intensified in recent months and is having an ever greater impact on the outlook in companies' annual reports.
The data is presented as a three-month average and broken down into various sectors, including e.g. industry, healthcare, consumer goods, information technology, etc.
I am curious to see how the stock markets will behave in the coming week. In addition to the current reporting season, the topic of "tariffs" will certainly dominate.
After the tough tariffs announced after Trump took office were not immediately enforced and there was a "slight" sigh of relief, there could now be a new reaction on the markets, as there was on Friday evening. slightly was already slightly noticeable on Friday evening when the markets turned towards the evening.
A looming trade conflict could not only affect individual companies, but also further fuel inflation in the US:
💰 Influence on inflation
On January 31, Deutsche Bank published a forecast on the potential impact of tariffs on the inflation rate [2]:
The chart compares the current forecast with the forecast before the "Trump" era and takes into account various scenarios for the passing on of tariffs (pass-through) by Canada and Mexico.
Two scenarios are considered: one with a 50% pass-through of tariffs (additional increase shown in dark green) and one with a 75% pass-through (light green). It is clear that the inflation rate could rise sharply again this year and fall again by 2027.
🛃 New tariffs in force & further measures planned
As of today, February 1, 2025, the US government and Donald Trump have imposed new import tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China:
According to the White House spokesperson, these measures are, among other things, a response to the failure of these countries to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the USA. [3]
But this is just the beginning:
From mid-February, the USA will also impose tariffs on strategic goods [4], including:
🚨 Trump relies on escalation - Canada announces retaliation
Yesterday, Canadian government representatives, including Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, tried to prevent the tariffs in Washington, but to no avail.
Trump made it clear before his departure to Mar-a-Lago [5]:
"We have a 200 billion dollar trade deficit with Canada. Why should we subsidize Canada?"
The EU could also soon be targeted, as Trump hinted:
"Absolutely! The European Union has treated us so terribly!"
🔄 Canada's reaction:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will not back down and will respond with "swift and robust countermeasures".
The government is planning a three-stage retaliation strategy [5]:
However, this last step in particular would be a double-edged sword, as Canada is heavily dependent on energy cooperation with the USA.
Economic experts in the US are already warning of the consequences of a trade war [5]:
But Trump remains firm:
"Maybe there will be short-term disruption, but in the long run the tariffs will make us very rich and very strong."
🌎 Possible consequences for the global economy
(a) Rising prices in the USA
(b) Retaliation & new trade wars?
(c) Effects on the stock market
🏆 Winners & losers - which companies will benefit, which will suffer?
Possible beneficiaries of the tariffs
US manufacturers of steel, aluminum & copper
Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies
Energy companies with US production
Chip manufacturers with US production
😥 Companies that could suffer from the tariffs
Chip manufacturers with global supply chains
Car manufacturers with global suppliers
Companies with strong export business
US retailers with a high import share
🧠 Possible investment strategies
Favor defensive sectors:
Exploit long-term opportunities in "reshoring":
Conclusion: Will the trade conflict escalate further?
With the new tariffs, Trump is taking a confrontational stance and Canada, Mexico and China are preparing for retaliatory measures. If further tariffs on European goods follow, the situation could worsen.
❓Which stocks do you think could be most affected? Which beneficiaries do you see?
Thanks for reading! 🤝
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Sources:
[4]
[5] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-strafzoelle-100.html
Detailed gold price analysis
Performance comparison
Trigger for the price increase
Gold purchases by central banks
Expectations of interest rate cuts
Gold demand in China and India
Gold ETFs
Link: shorturl.at/HHgOg
An initial position established. It is predicted that demand for copper will exceed supply as a result of the energy transition.
Is anyone else here invested in mining companies - who have you chosen?
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$AAUKF
Tip of the day/idea
Tomorrow come here new figures, I am optimistic here!
Is not entirely without risk, if necessary hedge with a stop.
General
Alcoa Corp. is a leading international producer of bauxite and alumina and a producer of processed aluminum in the form of various cast and rolled products. The company is active in all major segments of the aluminum value chain, including mining, smelting, processing and recycling. Alcoa Corp. is an international leader in bauxite mining, operates alumina refineries, aluminum smelters and rolling mills worldwide, and is active in the energy sector.
Why
+Aluminum continues to be in high demand ( Renewable energy theme, China asking more for Corona).
+Smelter shutdowns in China's due to poor power supply.
+Energy costs for production have dropped the last months
+Growth in general industry USA/Europe and especially China is still intact
+Upward trend still intact
+Dividend 0.99 percent
+Expectations are low to negative
Disadvantages
-Low growth
-copper and coal is more in focus with investors (Here I also build out, as among others Freeport $FCX (+0.2%) and Rio Tinto $RIO (+2.13%) )
-Costs are not so quickly brought under control
My Wikifolio Depot
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Source
Evening all,
am new on Getquin, here is my portfolio and my performance for the last year and a half, what is your opinion of the portfolio?
My return is 86% TTWRR.
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