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88I am currently restructuring my portfolio and would like to keep the ACWI as the core and have a mix of growth and quality individual stocks with a long investment horizon as satellites. I have currently selected the following stocks:
However, this selection is very tech and USA focused. Do you have any suggestions or alternatives? For example, I have $LIN (+0.17%) , $SAP (+0.65%) , $SIE (-0.6%) and $CAT (+0.07%) or $DE (-0.59%) on the watchlist. What do you think?
Fortinet on the rise
Over the past ten years, sales have increased from USD 1.01 billion to USD 5.96 billion.
In the same period, free cash flow increased from USD 0.28 to USD 2.43 per share.
The business is highly scalable and highly profitable, with an FCF margin of over 30%. As a result, growth was financed entirely from current cash flow. The company has no significant debt.
Since 2017, the company has even been successively buying back its own Aktien and has reduced the number of outstanding shares from 872 to 764 million.
Another share price slump
However, all this has not prevented Fortinet from undergoing a major correction or crashing from time to time.
At this point, I could once again sing the song of the market's irrational short-sightedness, but I'll leave it at that.
Instead, let's take a look at what caused the share price to plummet.
At USD 0.64 per share, Q2 earnings were well above expectations of USD 0.59. With sales of USD 1.63 billion, analysts' estimates of USD 1.62 billion were also exceeded.
For the year as a whole, this corresponds to a 14% increase in sales and a 12% jump in profits.
Operating cash flow improved by 32% to USD 451.9 million. Due to major acquisitions, however, FCF fell from USD 318.9 million to USD 284.1 million.
Whether all this justifies a share price fall of almost 30 % is questionable. At UBS, however, a reason was immediately found. The bank warns of "low double-digit" growth rates, as Fortinet is only forecasting a sales increase of 11% for the fourth quarter, which is below the long-term target of 12%.
I had to laugh heartily.
Forecasts, panic and potential
The forecast for the current financial year was adjusted to an insignificant extent and largely confirmed.
For example, the sales forecast was raised from an average of USD 6.75 billion to USD 6.80 billion, but the service business forecast was lowered from USD 4.65 billion to USD 4.60 billion. The operating margin was increased from an average of 32.5 % to 32.75 % and earnings expectations were raised slightly from USD 2.46 to USD 2.50 per share.
Neither the quarterly figures nor the outlook have provided any profound new information that has or would fundamentally change the situation.
According to consensus estimates, free cash flow is expected to increase by 14% to USD 2.77 per share this year.
Fortinet thus has a forward P/FCF of 28.3, making the stock fairly valued for the first time since August last year. Over the last five years, the P/FCF has averaged 29.7
Fortinet share: Chart from 13.08.2025, price: USD 78.47 - symbol: FTNT | Source: TWS
The initial panic quickly dissipated. The return above USD 78 even triggered a Kaufsignal was even triggered. A first possible Kursziel lies at USD 82.00 - 83.50. Above this level, even a quick Gap-Closeconceivable.
If, on the other hand, the share falls below USD 78, further price losses towards USD 73 or USD 70 must be expected.
$FTNT (-1.98%) — The Legacy Play in My Portfolio
Fortinet is the cybersecurity equivalent of a bouncer who not only guards the door but also built the entire club from scratch, with proprietary tools he has designed over decades. Fortinet became famous with its FortiGate firewalls, powered by its custom-made chips, which allow the company to undercut prices through ownership of the value chain.
Over time, the company has evolved and created various applications in the cybersecurity environment, and the best thing is that they can offer clients the entire package – from network security to endpoint protection – without piecing together products from multiple vendors. Simplicity – something every company values and Fortinet perfected.
You don’t need the entire package? No problem. Fortinet’s other strength lies in its flexibility. Whether you want protection for your data center, basic virtual appliances, or completely cloud-delivered FortiSASE, Fortinet has you covered and can customize its product range to your needs. The big obstacle is the crowdedness of the cybersecurity space, where every company needs to prove consistently that it can keep up the pace.
Fortinet is a great one-stop shop for cybersecurity and well-established in the industry, but competition is fierce, which you always need to monitor. I believe in the company and think that we have a nice opportunity on our hands after the recent sell off.
$S (-1.21%)
— The Innovator for the Watchlist
Now we enter uncharted territory. A company I don’t own, even though I find it highly interesting. Funnily enough, it’s very much the opposite of Fortinet, which might explain its appeal: while Fortinet’s empire was built on hardware performance and a fully integrated platform, SentinelOne is a pure-play software assassin that lives in the cloud and on endpoints. Arguably the faster growing part of the cybersecurity sector, though this also comes with the major downside of uncertainty.
SentinelOne’s platform impresses with superior endpoint protection and utilizes AI to prevent, detect and respond to threats automatically. The company is a software-only play that boasts massive growth, though still unprofitable.
I don’t think the investment case for SentinelOne is as straightforward, since the company hasn’t fully established itself yet, but there is a case to be made that this could become one of the cybersecurity leaders in an AI-dominated world. While I am currently on the sidelines on this one, I could imagine an entry around $15.
The current earnings wave shows impressively how differently AI and tech stocks are performing: $BBAI (-2.56%) BigBear.ai collapses by almost 30% after disappointing figures and it is by no means a new $PLTR (-0.84%) Palantir. Investors should avoid the stock and focus on profitable growth stocks. $FTNT (-1.98%) Although Fortinet exceeded expectations, its weak outlook in the firewall segment is causing uncertainty. $TTD (-0.88%) Trade Desk and $AI (-1.47%) C3.ai are unable to translate their technical expertise into sustained market confidence, while $DUOL Duolingo increases sales and profits significantly thanks to efficient AI integration. Palantir maintains its role as a defensive AI play with strong roots in the government sector. This divergence shows that execution business model and sustainable profitability are more crucial than mere buzzwords. Will market selection in the AI sector be even tougher in the future?
Source wallstreet ONLINE from August 12, 2025
I did manage to buy some more at the end of the week (yesterday) and filled my portfolio a little more. 📈
I bought:
Total sum: € 101,116
Let's see how this develops, in any case I'm well covered for now. 🚀
New acquisitions: $FTNT (-1.98%)
$TTD (-0.88%)
$CMG (-0.94%)
$AJG (-0.46%)
$BRK.B (+0.47%)
$ZTS (-0.12%)
Please let me know what you think of my compilation.
Hi everyone,
Now I'm also sharing my portfolio. At the moment I'm actually quite happy with the development, I'm just wondering whether I'm too heavily weighted in the tech sector & whether it would be sensible to halve a stock such as $ANET (+0.87%) in half & include something else like $1211 (+0.63%) to be included.
Especially the issue with the sell-off in $FTNT (-1.98%) due to the moderately ongoing tech refresh of hardware devices makes me doubt Arista for how long this will work.
In general, I think it would make sense not to have so much in the USA...
Other opinions on weighting/portfolio?
Today was a successful day for my portfolio, as some truly enticing opportunities presented themselves. A few of them seemed just too good to pass up, so I took some money off the sidelines and deployed it efficiently.
A few weeks ago, I mentioned my intention to reduce my cash position opportunistically throughout Q3 and Q4, aiming for <10% by year-end. However, with the current volatility and short-term panic dominating investor sentiment, it’s getting increasingly harder to resist collecting some beat-up names. Two that stood out today: Fortinet ($FTNT (-1.98%) ) and Eli Lilly ($LLY (-1.15%) ).
Fortinet – Cybersecurity, But at a Fair Price
Let’s start chronologically. When Fortinet reported earnings yesterday, nothing seemed off:
· Revenue up 14% YoY
· Billings up 15% YoY
· EPS up 25% YoY
All figures were in line with or beating expectations. Regardless of that, the company maintains rock-solid balance sheet with ~$4.5 billion in cash, a strong operating margin of 33% (non-GAAP) and free cash flow margins of 25-30%. In Addition, AAR growth was exceptional with SASE and Security Operations rising 22% and 35% YoY respectively.
Looks good enough, you might think. The market didn’t think so, judging by the 27% slaughter of the company’s share price.
So, what was wrong with the report? Where’s the fly in the ointment? Mostly due to a disappointing firewall refresh cycle.
Management confirmed that 40-50% is already complete, implying reduced product demand. Apart from that, there wasn’t much to criticize except for guidance that was “merely” in line, which triggered analyst downgrades, citing growth concerns.
But is that in any way enough to justify a >25% sell-off? Absolutely not, let’s consider a few long-term catalysts for Fortinet from here:
· SASE Expansion (rapidly growing cloud-based security platform)
· Security Operations Suite (similar growth through AI-driven threat detection)
· Global Presence (competitive edge in EMs as the No. 1 player, biggest revenue stream comes from EMEA, US just second)
· AI Integration (Fortiguard and FortiAI enhance threat response)
All of that sounds great, but as usual for cybersecurity companies, it’s fair to assume a massive price tag attached to the stock. Though, that’s not necessarily the case. Fortinet currently trades around a 30 Forward P/E ratio, significantly below its historic average, suggesting an attractive entry level.
Considering the industry Fortinet operates in and how cybersecurity becomes increasingly more important, this is the perfect opportunity to get a piece of a stellar company in one of the fastest growing sectors worldwide.
Eli Lilly – Let’s Profit off the Fat
The second buy of the day benefits from the most sustainable macro trend of all – human indulgence. In simpler terms: people overeating, getting fat, developing diseases, needing treatment.
To clarify, I already had a small position in Lilly, which I added alongside Novo Nordisk ($NOVO B (-0.2%) /$NVO (+0.21%) ) last week. My logic is simple: Obesity and diabetes are long-term megatrends, and only two companies dominate the space. So, why would you try to be smarter than the market and bet on just one, if you can own both?
Honestly, I have no idea who is going to emerge as the winner, but I also don’t think that we will necessarily see only one. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have their advantages. Novo is an unloved stock, deeply undervalued with heavy turnaround potential, while Lilly is the faster growing, innovative frontrunner. Initially, the ratio between my Novo and my Lilly holding was 2:1, but after Lilly’s stock sold off sharply today, despite another example of exceptional earnings I just couldn’t resist.
What triggered the decline? Results from Lilly’s oral semaglutide clinical trial came out today and to put it in simple terms: Novo’s rival drug utterly obliterated Lilly’s pill in weight-loss. But was that a surprise? Not really. Novo had a head start, while Lilly is catching up. However, I have no doubt that Lilly will eventually develop a similarly effective alternative. Though, I wouldn’t mind a sharp recovery of my Novo shares based on such a triviality.
Conclusion
Let’s wrap it up. Markets are hypersensitive at the moment. Even a minor imperfection in an earnings report can spark a massive selloff. Expectations are brutal, and it’s not unusual to see $100+ billion companies trading like meme stocks.
In conclusion, both Eli Lilly and Fortinet are phenomenal companies, with robust balance sheets, strong growth prospects and long-term catalysts, trading at discounted prices.
As Warren Buffett said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful”.
Let’s do that and enjoy the returns.
Yesterday: $FTNT (-1.98%)
Today: $TTD (-0.88%)
Boy, enough is enough. There's no need for a different share to fall by 30% every day. I'll soon liquidate the portfolio and breed mountain goats and donkeys. Really, you can overdo it with short-selling.
Hello everyone. I'm currently having a hard time deciding...like probably so many people. I was considering either opening a new position at $FTNT (-1.98%) as this would be penalized too much or to buy a position in $NOVO B (-0.2%) . However, I think that the recovery will drag on like chewing gum and will certainly not be a v-shaped recovery.
What do you think and what do you currently have on your whatchlist?
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