Fortinet

Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

Chris

@Multibagger

2Wk·

And a second value that I find interesting

these are $CHKP (+2.21%) !

Check Point Software is back - and how! In an industry characterized by AI-driven dynamics, cloud shifts and geopolitical nervousness, the Israeli veteran of IT security is impressing with an explosive triad: a solid balance sheet, aggressive share buybacks and a high-growth subscription model. While competitors such as Palo Alto and CrowdStrike sacrifice their margins to expansion, Check Point manages to strike a balance between innovation and profitability. With Quantum Force, a new hardware line was established, the firewalls modernized and the customer base reactivated - 14 percent growth in license sales speaks for itself. The transformation to a subscription-based provider is particularly exciting: 43 percent of sales already come from recurring revenues and free cash flow is over one billion dollars a year. Debt? Not a thing. But almost three billion dollars in cash and a buyback program that is driving up EPS and valuation. Even a conservative multiplication results in a share price potential of 10 to 20 percent - with a view to the market position and the valuation delta to industry giants, there is even more potential. Analysts are forecasting a peak price potential for the next twelve months that is 40 percent higher than the current price level. Yes, the risks are real: SaaS transition, strong competition, integration effort. But anyone looking to add a balanced, high-margin cybersecurity investment with technical strength and a fundamental underpinning to their portfolio will now find a rare opportunity with Check Point.

Check Point's share price has risen by an impressive 1,150% since 2009 - this corresponds to an average annual price increase of around 16%. In the past two years, the upward momentum has accelerated even further. The share price could currently be on the verge of reaching a new all-time high. Since the end of January, the share price has been moving sideways between 207 and 234 dollars. The previous record high of 234 dollars was reached at the beginning of June. If the breakout into new chart territory is successful, this would result in an initial price target of USD 254 based on volatility. In the medium term, a rise to the round USD 300 mark would even be conceivable. Despite the very promising prospects, existing positions should definitely be hedged with a stop at 202 dollars

Among the four cybersecurity stocks alongside $CHKP (+2.21%) yet $FTNT (+2.05%) , $PANW (-0.99%) and $CRWD (+2.2%) Fortinet stands out in particular with an impressive 12-month performance of 72%. The performance of the three competitors was less spectacular, but remained positive. Check Point achieved a plus of 28%, with the majority of this increase being attributable to a dynamic upward movement in January. In view of the solid fundamental starting position, the next price surge could now be imminent. A look at the comparison table confirms this: Check Point is clearly ahead in terms of key figures. The profit growth forecast for the coming years is also in the double-digit percentage range. Analysts therefore currently put the share price potential at around 40 percent - with a target price of 300 dollars!

And here, too, I am prepared for a derivative entry with JF8Y3G. Of course, this is not an investment recommendation. But why shouldn't they surprise positively with the figures. It is very important to note that the following applies to both of the bills presented today: only enter after 3:30 p.m., as there are no fair prices before then.

2 Comments

2Wk

With a P/E ratio of 27, not cheap from a historical perspective. Cheap compared to the peer group.
Check Point is in some federal agencies such as the Bundestag.

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2Mon·

Challenge my holdings!

I challenge you to critique my current holdings. Any critique is welcome. Go!

Here are my current holdings:

2 Comments

1Mon

Too many

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2Mon·

Why I own them

Today I want to share with you 5 of my holdings and tell you exactly "why I own them" - a quick overview of why I got a strong conviction:

1. $MSFT (+2.73%) sells its leading software and services to both consumers and enterprises. The company's Azure cloud platform and Office 365 suite have significantly driven growth. Microsoft generates 50% of its revenue from the US and 50% internationally. Millions of individuals and businesses worldwide rely on Microsoft's software and productivity tools for their daily operations. Future growth should be propelled by its cloud services, AI and strong enterprise software demand.

-- FCF ROC: 19% I FCF Growth: 15% I FCF Linearity: 0.95 --

2.$MA (+2.1%) a major player in global payments processing, offers credit, debit and prepaid cards, along with digital payment solutions to consumers and businesses worldwide. Mastercard processes close to $6tn transactions per year. Mastercard generates 35% of its revenue from the Americas and the rest internationally. Like Visa, growth has been driven by the shift from cash to digital payments and expanding global commerce. Mastercard's extensive network, strong brand and advanced security measures offer a significant competitive edge.

-- FCF ROC: 42% I FCF Growth: 15% I FCF Linearity: 0.95 --

3. $MSCI (+2.91%) sells investment decision support tools, including indices, portfolio risk and performance analytics, to institutional investors globally. Over $1 trillion in ETF assets are linked to MSCI indexes. Growth has been driven by the increasing adoption of its indices for benchmarking and passive investment products like ETFs. MSCI's strong brand reputation, comprehensive data and analytics capabilities give it its competitive advantage.

-- FCF ROC: 31% I FCF Growth: 18% I FCF Linearity: 1.00 --

4. $CDNS (+2.53%) sells electronic design automation (EDA) software predominantly to the semiconductor industry. 44% of revenue is from the US. Cadence has benefited from the increasing complexity of chip designs and the demand for advanced electronic devices. Its competitive advantages include a comprehensive suite of design tools and long-standing industry relationships. Cadence is well-positioned to capitalise on its critical role in the design process.

-- FCF ROC: 31% I FCF Growth: 19% I FCF Linearity: 0.99 --

5. $FTNT (+2.05%) provides cybersecurity, including firewalls, antivirus software, intrusion prevention systems and endpoint security, to enterprises and service providers. They have over 730,000 customers across most industries, including healthcare, finance, tech and government. Future growth drivers include the expanding cybersecurity market, adoption of cloud security and growing demand for secure network solutions.

-- FCF ROC: 49% I FCF Growth: 27% I FCF Linearity: 0.99 --

risk_taker_1816@risk_taker_1816

2Mon·

My investable universe

When I‘m screening markets for my investable universe I look for high-quality compounders with:

Strong and consistent capital returns (ROCE)
High and stable profitability (gross, operating, and FCF margins)
Steady revenue growth over time
Large market capitalization (mature, established companies)

In detail I’m screening for:

Market Cap: at least $ 10B
ROCE 3-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
ROCE 10-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
Gross Margin 3-Year Avg: ≥ 50%
FCF Margin 3-Year Avg: ≥ 20%
Operating Margin 10-Year Avg: ≥ 25%
Revenue per share CAGR 3-Year: ≥ 5%
Revenue per share CAGR 10-Year: ≥ 5%
FCF per share CAGR 3-Year: ≥ 10%
FCF per share CAGR 10-Year: ≥ 10%
Consistency/stability of earnings (from max. 1.0): ≥ 0.8
No more than 75% revenue exposure to one single country/market (eg. USA)

Here are my current holdings:

2Mon·

My Portfolio

Today I‘m sharing with you my main portfolio. This doesn’t include any ETF investments and crypto currencies / gold etc. since I want to focus my presence on getquin on stock-picking.

Read my 3-part portfolio strategy posts to get the full picture - here are just the main pillars of what I‘m doing:

Long-term buy and hold (average holding time 5+ years at least)
Focus on high-ROIC compounders riding secular trends (top-tier capital efficiency)
High margins, strong FCF growth, large moats (7 powers strategy)
Holding not more than 20 stocks at a time while mainly focusing on US and EU based companies

I like to divide my holdings into „core holdings“ (forever stocks) and „trend picks“ (2030 stocks) as follows:

Core Holdings (“Forever Stocks”):

Growth Picks (“2030 Stocks”):

20Positions

37.12%

4 Comments

2Mon

Amazon 2,5k% Plus damn what’s you’re buy in on that one

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Carlos@market_maverick_2062

2Mon·

My portfolio strategy (part 3)

I use the 7 Powers framework from the book “7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy” by Hamilton Helmer. It’s a killer framework for understanding why some businesses create lasting value and compound returns over time.

Each “Power” is a sustainable strategic advantage that lets a company generate outsized returns for a long time. I ask the 7 questions for each stock I am considering to buy.

1. Counter-Positioning

What it is: A new entrant adopts a superior business model that incumbents can’t copy without damaging their own biz.
Example: Netflix vs. Blockbuster. Blockbuster couldn’t move to streaming without killing its DVD revenue.
Why it matters: Creates asymmetric pressure; the old guard is paralyzed.

2. Scale Economies

What it is: Unit costs drop as volume increases.
Example: Amazon, Costco. Bigger = cheaper = stronger moat.
Why it matters: Hard to compete if you can’t match their cost base.

3. Switching Costs

What it is: Customers stick around because switching is painful.
Example: Adobe Creative Cloud, Microsoft Office, Salesforce.
Why it matters: High retention = stable cash flows = compounding machine.

4. Network Effects

What it is: The product gets better as more people use it.
Example: Meta, Visa, LinkedIn.
Why it matters: Leads to dominance, creates a feedback loop of growth.

5. Branding

What it is: Emotional or symbolic value, not just functional.
Example: L’Oréal, Hermès, Apple.
Why it matters: Lets companies charge premium prices and keeps customers loyal even if alternatives exist.

6. Cornered Resource

What it is: Exclusive access to a critical asset — talent, IP, data, supply.
Example: ASML (EUV tech), Novo Nordisk (Ozempic IP), Ferrari (brand + heritage + team).
Why it matters: If no one else can get it, you win.

7. Process Power

What it is: Unique internal processes that drive efficiency, innovation, or quality — and are hard to copy.
Example: Toyota (lean manufacturing), Amazon (logistics, culture of innovation).
Why it matters: Long-lasting edge baked into the org’s DNA.

If I had to chose one, Network effects would be the most important one for me.

Here are my current holdings:

3 Comments

3Wk

Nice, but if I were you I would go down to st leats 10 picks so you can research them fully, and build conviction for your “for ever picks”.

Also, I think you are missing TESLA in there… ;)

Good luck my friend

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View all 2 further answers

2Mon·

My portfolio strategy (part 2)

Concentrate on the following sectors: Tech, consumer, healthcare, financial (excluding banks), industrials
Smallest position size 2% / largest position size 15%
Only sell a position when it can be replaced with a position that increases the overall quality of the portfolio
Avoid companies with little to no track record or companies going through a restructuring phase

Here are my current holdings:

2 Comments

2Mon

I see a lot of similarities to my strategy! Could it be that you watch a certain Youtuber with the initials JC? 😏

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