And now into $NVDA (-6.14%)
$META (-5.02%) and $BTC (+3.37%)
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663
2D·
📊 Market Update (October 10, 2025)
🇺🇸 USA
$SPX500 — Opening in a slight decline, pulling back from all-time highs due to profit-taking.
$DJ30 — Generalized weakness, with cyclical and financial sectors weighing on the index.
💻 Tech Snapshot
$NVDA (-6.14%) — Remains in positive territory, driven by the AI narrative.
$AVGO (-7.17%) — In a slight downturn, the semiconductor sector is mixed.
$AMZN (-5.92%) — Stable, as investors await clearer signals on cloud growth.
$META (-5.02%) — Net increase, supported by positive sentiment regarding advertising spending. $MSFT (-3.3%) — In moderate decline, affected by the general market weakness.
$SHOP (-9.54%) — Falling, giving up some of the recent gains.
$QBTS (-7.49%) — Registers a major spike, benefiting from renewed focus on quantum computing.
🇪🇺 Europe
STOXX 600 — Registers a sharp setback, weighed down by luxury car and banking stocks.
GER40 futures — Moves in slight contraction, awaiting economic data from Germany.
🏦 European & Italian Banks
$UCG (-2.56%) — Decisive drop, in line with the strong pressure on the sector.
$ISP (-1.98%) — Moves into the negative, limited by yield volatility.
$BAMI (-2.13%)
$CE (-0.74%) , $BPE (-3.13%) — Weak tone for Italian mid-cap banks.
$BBVA (-2.87%) — Under pressure, due to its international exposures.
🌏 Asia
$JPN225 — Slight upward push, with the Yen remaining stable.
$KOSPI — Progressing, thanks to the strength of the technology sector.
$HK50 — Sharp decline, due to sales in Chinese tech stocks.
$BABA (-8.67%) — Under strong pressure, reflecting ongoing regulatory uncertainty and growth concerns.
$CHINA50 — Stable, balanced between government support and weak data.
💱 Forex
$EURUSD — Moves in slight contraction, with the Dollar recovering.
$GBPUSD — Flat, awaiting the BoE's next move.
$USDJPY — Stable, as investors assess the yield differential.
$DXY — Recovering, showing a cautious return to strength.
🥇 Gold
$GLD (+0.53%) — In solid increase, gold continues to attract safe-haven investment flows, maintaining high levels.
🛢 Oil
$BRENT — Falling, due to signs of slowing global demand.
$WTI — Losing ground, affected by recent increases in US inventories.
💰 Crypto
$BTC (+3.37%) — Slight pullback, in a phase of technical consolidation.
$ETH (+9.65%) — Following Bitcoin, showing a cautious tone. The sector remains awaiting new catalysts.
🚀 Insight: $ASTS (-6.02%) (AST SpaceMobile) - The Analysis
$ASTS is an innovative satellite telecommunications company with an ambitious mission: to create the first global cellular broadband network in space, capable of connecting directly with standard mobile phones.
Why is it interesting?
Disruptive Technology: The company aims to eliminate global "shadow zones" without requiring additional user hardware. The implementation of the BlueBird network represents a potential game changer for the wireless industry.
Strategic Partnerships: Agreements with top-tier operators, such as Vodafone and Rakuten, validate its market potential.
Market Performance: The stock has recently shown ** strong upward momentum**, with significant year-on-year growth.
Analyst Sentiment (TipRanks & eToro)
The general sentiment is one of cautious optimism with a "Moderate Buy" recommendation.
- Target Price: The 12-month target is considered high (around $53 $), although the current price ($86 $) exceeds the average projection, reflecting the enormous potential of the technology.
- Technical Analysis: In the medium term, the stock is in an upward trend channel. The high RSI indicates strong optimism, but suggests the stock may be technically "overbought" in the very short term, making a brief correction possible.
In summary, $ASTS is a high-risk/high-reward
growth stock, driven by space-to-cell technology and supported by solid partnerships.
PS: The strong run of $ASTS has attracted attention. I am considering entering a position at more attractive support levels (around $60 $ in case of a correction) to capitalize on the long-term trend in satellite connectivity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the loss of capital.
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6D·
Pandora's Box: "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies"
Dear community! 🙏
The topic of AI is omnipresent.
Many are shouting loudly that it is now a bubble on the stock market and cannot withstand the high expectations in the short and medium term.
What is certain is that LLMs such as ChatGPT or Gemini have become an integral part of many people's lives.
Still far from "perfect", generative AI nevertheless exudes a surreal magic that we could not have imagined in our wildest dreams just five years ago.
Large companies, such as Accenture recently, are laying off staff on a massive scale as part of a major "AI restructuring".
It seems clear that AI will soon cause massive upheaval in business and society.
Last week, I received my pre-order of Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book on "superintelligent AI" and devoured it in two days.
Although this post is not directly about stock market investing, I think the topic is important enough to interest you.
Buckle up for a round of existential angst on Monday 😎✨
__________________________
❓What exactly is this about?
Yudkowsky, the author, is co-founder of the "Machine Intelligence Research Institute" in Berkeley and warned of the existential risks of advanced AI systems over 20 years ago.
The title "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" of his latest book initially sounds like a lurid exaggeration ...
Although I knew the basic thesis on the dangers of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) in advance, I didn't think too much of it.
With billions and billions flowing into the sector, clever minds will surely think about security (AI alignment) ... right? 🤔
To anticipate the core message of the book:
Yudkowsky and co-author Nate Soares go so far as to say that if we continue to research the capabilities of artificial intelligence and train better and better models, it will undoubtedly lead to the certain demise of humanity.
__________________________
⬛Functionality of LLMs and black box reality:
We know surprisingly little about how LLMs work internally.
"Mechanistic Interpretability" is researching this, but a general, scalable understanding is lacking.
This is fundamentally due to the fact that LLMs are not "programmed", but "grow" analogous to biological evolution.
Here is a rudimentary explanation of how it works, but it is sufficient to illustrate the problem:
A transformer model consists of billions of parameters whose weights are initially set randomly.
During training, it is given tasks in the form of texts and attempts to predict the next word.
Based on the error between the prediction and the correct answer, gradient descent is used to calculate in which direction and to what extent each weight must be changed in order to improve the result.
This process is repeated over an unimaginable number of texts, with the weights constantly adapting.
In this way, the Transformer gradually "learns" language patterns, meaning and context until it can write coherently.
__________________________
😶🌫️Unsichtbare Preferences:
Systems that grow via gradient descent can learn goals that do not correspond to our intentions.
They optimize a training goal and learn internal heuristics or "values" in the process.
This learning dynamic gives rise to instrumental goals (securing resources, avoiding shutdown), which can collide with human goals.
This has already been empirically observed in AI models and supports the fear of hidden desires that only become visible outside of training.
The "alignment" is therefore, as things stand today, unsolvable.
__________________________
🚀Race Condition (States & Big Tech):
In my opinion, this is the most important driver for the known risks simply being ignored.
Who slows down first?
Capital and governments are pushing forward with compute, talent, power and chips.
The AI Index shows record investments, massive government programs and ever faster scaling on the frontier.
Here is a paraphrased passage from the book that illustrates the problem:
Several companies are climbing upward as if on a ladder in the dark.
Each rung brings enormous financial gains (10 billion, 50 billion, 250 billion USD, etc.). But no one knows where the ladder ends - and whoever reaches the top rung causes the ladder to explode and destroys everyone.
Nevertheless, no company wants to be left behind as long as the next rung is seemingly safe.
Some managers even believe that only they themselves can control the "explosion" and turn it into something positive - and therefore feel obliged to keep climbing.
The same dilemma also applies to states: No country wants to weaken its economy through strict AI regulation, while other countries continue their research unabated. Perhaps, so the thinking goes, the next step is even necessary to safeguard national security.
The problem could be solved more easily if science could determine exactly at what performance limit AI becomes truly dangerous. For example: "The fourth rung is deadly" or "Danger looms above 257,000 GPUs". But there is no such clear limit.
A potential, real "Tragedy of the Commons". 🤷♂️
In theory, LLMs could become arbitrarily "intelligent" as long as they have enough parameters, data and computing power.
This follows from the Church-Turing hypothesis: a sufficiently large neural network can approximate (with enough precision) any computable function, including an arbitrarily "intelligent" one.
The development of capabilities that we are currently seeing seems to follow an exponential curve.
Nobody knows how much compute we really need to achieve AGI.
We may get to that point in five years, in ten, twenty or thirty years.
__________________________
🔮The most controversial part of the book. The forecast:
The book paints the extinction of humanity in less than 20 years as plausible if we don't stop AI development.
Whether you believe the figure or not, the timelines of many researchers have slipped significantly in recent years.
The AI Impacts Surveys (e.g. 2016, 2022, 2023) have surveyed AI researchers worldwide, especially those who publish at major conferences such as NeurIPS, ICML or AAAI.
The surveys show a clear trend towards shorter AGI timelines and significant p-doom values. (p-doom refers to the risk of humanity being wiped out by artificial intelligence).
⏱️AGI/HLMI timing (50% chance that AI will perform all tasks better and cheaper than humans - "high-level machine intelligence"):
- 2016: ~2061
- 2022: ~2059
- 2023 (published 2024): 2047
The jump 2022 → 2023 was -13 years. 🫨
💣p(doom) - "extremely poor outcomes"
- 2022: Median 5%, 48% of respondents state >10%.
- 2023 survey: 38-51% indicate >10% for scenarios "as bad as extinction".
Not consensus, but far from zero.
We are talking here about the assessment that there is a probability of around 10% that humanity will be wiped out. 🤯
__________________________
Well, hasn't humanity already survived various asymmetric risks?
What about nuclear weapons, for example? 🤔
Nuclear weapons risks are iterative.
Humanity can narrowly escape several times (as in 1962, 1983, 1995).
AGI, on the other hand, is unique:
When a system with uncontrollable power emerges, there is no turning back and no second chance.
"You only get one shot at aligning superintelligence, and you can't debug it afterwards."
- Eliezer Yudkowsky
This means that the expected value is catastrophically high, even if the probability is "small" (~10% according to leading AI scientists).
Nuclear weapons can kill.
A superhuman AI can decide what exists in the future.
__________________________
Closing words 🔚
There is no question that AI will profoundly change our lives in a short space of time.
In many jobs, the economic value that a person contributes already depends on how well they use AI as a tool.
But how long will it be before almost all jobs are performed by AI without human sensitivity or empathy?
For me, the sentence "I want to be operated by a human" is above all a quality requirement and a question of trust.
AI is new and often not yet reliable enough.
But what if talking AI avatars can no longer be distinguished from humans?
Which company, which state will still be able to afford it? not gradually hand over more responsibility to AI?
Regardless of what you think of Yudkowsky's predictions:
He may sound more dramatic than others, but he hits a sore spot.
We have opened Pandora's box with AI and are relying surprisingly heavily on hope when it comes to AI alignment.
Yudkowsky is not alone in this; the shifts in the AI Impacts surveys show a clear trend.
And now the obligatory question for you:
How do you rate the existential threat posed by AI? 😳
1111
13 Comments
6D
We live in exciting times!
The collapse of the rules-based world order, climate collapse and uncontrolled AI development.
These three crises are usually viewed in isolation, but they are happening at the same time and influence each other.
Will China take Taiwan in a coup if its AI development is 6 months ahead of the US?
Will AI find ways to prevent climate collapse?
Will the end of international cooperation slow down AI development?
There are no clear answers to these questions. Three systems = three-body problem.
I'll be bold and say: we don't know what will happen. 🤷
The collapse of the rules-based world order, climate collapse and uncontrolled AI development.
These three crises are usually viewed in isolation, but they are happening at the same time and influence each other.
Will China take Taiwan in a coup if its AI development is 6 months ahead of the US?
Will AI find ways to prevent climate collapse?
Will the end of international cooperation slow down AI development?
There are no clear answers to these questions. Three systems = three-body problem.
I'll be bold and say: we don't know what will happen. 🤷
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6D·
Popular Stock PEG Ratio
First of all, I have not checked these values exactly and do not know from which date they originate, but could mean even more upside for $IREN (-9.15%) especially if more hype comes in here.
PEG < 1 usually means mispriced growth
PEG > 2 is where you start hitting the danger zone
PEG ratios right now:
- $HOOD (-9.88%) ~6.6x
- $CIFR (-8.23%) ~4.3x
- $HIMS (-8.47%) ~3.4x
- $AAPL (-4.63%) ~3.3x
- $ORCL (-3.03%) ~3.1x
- $MSFT (-3.3%) ~2.4x
- $PLTR (-7.09%) ~1.8x
- $CRM (-2.41%) ~1.8x
- $AMD (-10.01%) ~1.8x
- $AMZN (-5.92%) ~1.6x
-$ASML (-5.06%) ~1.5x
- $META (-5.02%) ~1.4x
- $ADBE (-3.29%) ~1.2x
- $AVGO (-7.17%) ~1.1x
- $GOOGL (-3.4%) ~1.0x
- $PYPL (-9.04%) ~0.9x
- $TSM (-6.55%) ~0.7x
- $NVDA (-6.14%) ~0.7x
- $SOFI (-10.55%) ~0.6x
- $IREN (-9.15%) ~0.3x
https://x.com/stocksavvyshay/status/1974838017815957797?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
1Wk·
The chef who never sleeps is here for the next hot investment?
Hello dear Getquin Community,
today I would like to give you an update about $CA1 (-7.8%) Circus SE. I already introduced the company here about two months ago, focusing at the time on the first pilot deployments at REWE. Since then, the company seems to have made some progress, especially thanks to the cooperation with Meta, which is further expanding Circus' technological area. Meta provides the artificial intelligence that Circus integrates into its own system. The result is an interesting combination of robotics and AI that goes far beyond simple kitchen automation.
The heart of Circus is the CA1 cooking robot. This system can prepare, portion and hygienically serve meals completely autonomously. Circus develops the robotics and its own operating system, CircusOS, while $META (-5.02%) the AI provides models. Together, this results in an intelligent kitchen system that optimizes itself, adapts recipes and efficiently controls the use of energy and resources.
According to a recent report by BILD, the CA1 has now been installed and successfully tested at the Meta Kantine in Munich. The system combines robotics, AI and storage systems. Ingredients are automatically removed from refrigerated compartments, heated in bowls on induction hobs and processed into ready meals within a few minutes. After each preparation, the pot is automatically rinsed and the robot prepares itself for the next order. The dishes can then be conveniently collected using a QR code.
The menu currently includes salads, lentil curry and penne arabiata. According to the BILD reporter who tested the system, the lentil curry tasted fresh, balanced and aromatic. The penne arabiata could have been a little firmer to the bite, but overall the concept impressed with its quality, speed and cleanliness.
The CA1 can prepare up to 100 meals per hour and can be operated around the clock. The cost per meal is around 5 to 6 euros. An appliance costs around 250,000 euros, plus around 10,000 euros per month for software and AI licenses. Circus promises a reduction in personnel costs of up to 95%, as the robot only needs to be filled and cleaned once a day.
It is particularly exciting to see where the CA1 is already being used or will soon be used. In addition to REWE and Meta, partners include the HEM petrol station chain, the construction company Strabag and Mercedes. Further locations in canteens, supermarkets, canteens and care facilities are planned. Circus is also working on a mobile version called CA M, which is being developed for field kitchens and large-scale projects. https://getqu.in/XvqncE/
Takeaway: Circus combines robotics, artificial intelligence and system catering to create a scalable business model with great future potential. If this technology continues to gain acceptance, it could fundamentally change the world of large-scale catering and company catering, from labor costs to logistics and quality assurance. It will be exciting to see which industry will be the first to adopt this development and who will be the smartest to take advantage of the technological lead.
@Multibagger Are you still invested?
@Tenbagger2024 maybe something for you too?
Source: Tagesschau, FAZ, BILD, Circus SE, BL Gastro
Picture: Circus, mwb research
Here you can find a detailed report about the company Circus SE
https://downloads.research-hub.de/2025%2002%2006%20DE%20Circus%20roundtable___z27selmb.pdf
1616
33 Comments
I'm not invested at the moment, but I'm ready to get back in when I think the time is right.
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1Wk·
+++ Buy these shares +++
For fun, I took a textbook (risk/return) approach with an efficient frontier analysis. This would make you buy these stocks
$AMZN (-5.92%)
$AAPL (-4.63%)
$MSFT (-3.3%)
$GOOGL (-3.4%)
$ORCL (-3.03%) and $NVDA (-6.14%)
Do not buy the following shares:
$TSLA (-6.86%)
$NFLX (-2.08%)
$UBER (-3.78%) and with $META (-5.02%) you can argue!
I also think conservative approaches are good to strengthen his thesis - I have Amazon, Alphabet and Nvidia in my portfolio :)
88
15 CommentsYou must also be a copy trader. 😉 I have exactly the same 3😎😂
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1Wk·
Incredible potential from Iren 👌
$IREN (-9.15%) started earlier than its competitors. The potential is incredible in the truest sense of the word.
"We own the entire stack - land, electricity, substations, data centers and computers. We don't lease anything. This means lower costs, higher performance and long-term reliability. Currently, GPUs consume less than 2% of our total energy portfolio."
CEO & Founder Daniel Roberts
$IREN (-9.15%) Vertical DC integration
What does the vertical integration of data centers mean for $IREN (-9.15%) ? We take a look at this article from DataXConnect: " $NBIS (-5.26%) will be a DataOne tenant for the next 10 years" (1). $NBIS (-5.26%) provides the designs for the construction by DataOne. DataOne owns power, land, substations, transmission infrastructure, backup power generation and facility operations!
$NBIS (-5.26%) pays colocation to DataOne! The 3.7 billion that Google/Fluidstack $WULF (-3.62%) pays for 200 MW (2)? The 3 billion that Google/Fluidstack pays $CIFR (-8.23%) pays for 168 MW (3)?
$NBIS (-5.26%) DataOne is paying around 5.45 billion for their 300 MW. It is probably more, as DataOne has significantly more influence than $WULF (-3.62%) / $CIFR (-8.23%) as DataOne/BSO operates 240 data centers worldwide; for comparison: $EQIX (-1.43%) (75 billion mcap) has 270 data centers. In addition, DataOne has additional capital expenditures for gas turbines behind the meter and will likely pass at least some of the costs on to $NBIS (-5.26%) pass on. For $IREN (-9.15%) which has already paid most of these costs at lower prices, this is largely pure margin!
From the Neoclouds $ORCL (-3.03%) , $CRWV (-5.69%) , $NBIS (-5.26%) , $IREN (-9.15%) . Is $IREN (-9.15%) the only ones who own their own land, power, data centers and electrical infrastructure! $CRWV (-5.69%) was lucky and signed a contract with $CORZ (-0.48%) when $CORZ (-0.48%) was on the verge of bankruptcy. He also secured $ORCL (-3.03%) Crusoe's electricity when Crusoe failed at Bitcoin mining. $CRWV (-5.69%) at least recognizes the weakness and tries to $CORZ (-0.48%) to buy up.
$CIFR (-8.23%)
$CRWV (-5.69%)
$NBIS (-5.26%)
$GOOGL (-3.4%)
$GOOG (-3.33%)
$MSFT (-3.3%)
$META (-5.02%)
$ORCL (-3.03%)
$NVDA (-6.14%)
$WULF (-3.62%)
8Mon·
IREN Limited the most efficient Bitcoin miner with enormous potential ?
IREN Limited, formerly Iris Energy Limited, is an Australian-based company that owns and operates data centers powered by 100% renewable energy. Its facilities are optimized for Bitcoin mining, artificial intelligence (AI) cloud services and other power-intensive computing. The mining data centers are located in Canal Flats, Mackenzie, Prince George and Childress. Bitcoin Mining provides security for the Bitcoin network. Al Cloud Services provides cloud compute for Al customers, 1,896 NVIDIA H100 and H200 GPUs. The Canal Flats facility is located in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 100 kilometers (km) from Cranbrook Regional Airport and 500 km east of Vancouver. Its facility is located in Prince George, the city in northern British Columbia, 500 km north of Vancouver. The facility is located in Childress County, Texas, more than 250 miles northwest of Dallas and in close proximity to several wind and solar power plants in the region. The company operates 200 MW of data centers in Childress.
I have put together a few interesting graphics here and I would be interested in your opinion of the company.
@stefan_21
@Testo-Investor Have you already dealt with the miners, what do you think of $IREN (-9.15%) ? I would be interested to know ✌️
All- In Cash Cost per $BTC (+3.37%) :
$IREN (-9.15%) Record-breaking growth in hash rate
In the year 2024 $IREN (-9.15%) set a new industry record for the fastest growth in operating hash rate (EH/s) in a single year among the $BTC (+3.37%) -miners, surpassing 400%.
$IREN (-9.15%) also held the previous single-year growth record of 350% in 2023.
Graphic: @Agrippa_Inv from 𝕏
According to VanEck, switching from BTC mining to an AI data center of just 20% for $IREN would be worth a capitalization of $6,571,000,000.
Despite $BTC (+3.37%) halving , $IREN achieved an impressive annual production growth of 55% - the highest growth rate among all public $BTC miners in 2024.
Graphic: @Agrippa_Inv from 𝕏
$CORZ (-0.48%) , $MARA (-9.81%) , $RIOT (-7.91%) , $BITF (-0.84%) , $CIFR (-8.23%) , $CLSK (-6.94%) , $WULF (-3.62%) ,
+ 2
3Wk·
IREN - Secured Power Advantage
$IREN (-9.15%)
$META (-5.02%)
$MSFT (-3.3%)
$NBIS (-5.26%)
$EQIX (-1.43%)
$DLR (-3.41%)
ein toller Beitrag von $IREN (-9.15%) auf x (Jim Liu) weshalb ich ihn hier teilen möchte, wirklich sehr gut geschrieben.
A fair skeptical question I’ve been asked on $IREN (-9.15%) is: If $IREN (-9.15%) overplays their hand, could hyperscalers can simply say, “Forget it, we’ll build ourselves.”? The answer is that hyperscalers are definitely acquiring power and building datacenters themselves but that’s still not enough; I will go into detail.
Projections for power shortfalls by 2030, 2035 are huge but seem far into the future, so let’s use 2028: by 2028 there will be a 36GW shortfall (1) (sources provided by number in comments). A general shortfall number seems hand wavy so let’s look at what this shortfall actually means.
1. The first misunderstanding is the assumption that if the all the tech CEOs and US government is aware about this problem then US will fix the shortfall within 1-2 years, after all the US is still the most powerful nation on earth. Well the upper bound for quickly building infrastructure is China. China is adding 290 GW to their grid in 2025 (2). 290 GW is a massive number right? Who needs 3GW from $IREN (-9.15%) when China can add 290 GWs in one year? Well 290 GWs is peak generation - sources like window, solar are intermittent and cannot sustain peak capacity and batteries only smooth out the power curve, not generate more power. With batteries and base generation to smooth it out and accounting for transmission losses, the effective continuous load supplied will be 22% of the peak generation or to 65GW (3). Now 65GW is still alot, so what’s the deal with 3GW? Well you see, the 65GW that came out in 2025 was planned in China’s 14th 5-year plan (4). Although China’s 14th 5-year plan was announced in 2021, the work needed to meet deadlines started in 2017/2018. Now this 65GW was due to their high projections in heavy industry and manufacturing, EVs, air conditioning, etc. China is the country to over builds infrastructure to maintain employment numbers, this is where high speed rail operates at a loss and prime real estate in Tain Fu District Guangzhou to fall 40% due to overbuild. However, in 2018, China never accounted for AI HPC. Even with manufacturing demand and EV adoption slower lower than projections and extra GW allocated to AI HPC, China still faces a shortfall of power for AI HPC (5). Let’s face it, the US builds infrastructure much slower than China, this is not a 2-3 year solvable problem. Even if small nuclear reactors ($OKLO ) first come out in 2028, it will take at least 1-2 years for them to ramp up to fully supply the shortfall.
2. Hyperscalers will never put their GB300s on the Chinese grid for obvious reasons. The 36GW shortfall is for the American grid. So what’s happening in North America? Hyperscalers are trying some uncertain projects like $MSFT (-3.3%) Three Mile Island restart scheduled for 2028 (6) and small modular reactors. Now geeze, $MSFT (-3.3%) has plenty of time until 2028, if one of it’s best plans to get more power in 2028 is to restart Three Mile Island, what kind of plans does it have for 2026 or 2027? $NBIS (-5.26%) 300MW of IaaS is not going to be enough to fulfill demand. You hear that Meta is getting very serious about its AI ambitions. It announce it’s 1GW Ohio DC called Prometheus. Closer inspections shows that the 1GW DC will be powered by Two 200MW natural gas facilities coming up in Q3 2026 and 440MW of solar (7). Solar has a capacity factor of 18%. Meta’s 1GW Hyperion DC has ~480MW of power at this time. You see the short fall? $META (-5.02%) announces it’s 2027 Hyperion DC to have 1.5GW IT Load (2.26GW of generation to get 1.5GW of IT Load), but upon closer inspection the first two gas turbines are expected to come online in 2028 and the third is expected to come online 2029 (8). Now 2028 is actually pretty fast for 2.26GW, how did Meta even secure the deal? It’s paying 3.2B extra for the gas turbines that will be to be owned by Entergy (9) on top of paying all the regular costs for the DC power. If $META (-5.02%) is paying 3.2B of extra cost for 2.26GW in 2028/2029, how much would 2.2GW in 2026 (Childress + SW1) and 3GW by 2027 for $IREN (-9.15%) be? With With xAI’s 1GW Colossus 2 is coming out in 2026, is Meta going pray that it can fill in the power gap for it’s Prometheus, or chill out until late 2028 when Hyperion is ready?
3. In NA, there were $64 billion of DC blocked or delayed in 2024/2025 (10) because the grid simply doesn’t support that much and people don’t want their electricity bills going up. So that’s pushing GPUs DC’s to two hot areas: energy abundant areas like West Texas and behind the grid gas turbines. West Texas is under Ercot and BTC miners taken all the early power capacity area since 2017 and have queue up the power pipeline to 2030. Crusoe and Lancium contracted out its power to Oracle and OpenAI. Everyone else is bragging about their power pipeline in West Texas but there’s not enough power as Ercot will deny over half of power pipelines between now and 2030 (11). IREN does not disclose its power pipeline rumored to be 5-6GW (12) and only public announces the 3GW with interconnect agreements.
4. Now what about gas turbines behind the meter? Isn’t that what xAI did for Colossus 1/2 and what DataOne did for $NBIS (-5.26%) ? Well gas turbines have a wait time of 5-7 years (13). Colossus took their gas turbine from abroad, disassembled it and then is rebuilding it in Mississippi (14). I love $TSLA (-6.86%) mission but let’s be real here: Europe/Japan/China aren’t in excess of power plants and Elon conveniently omitted where the gas turbines came from: it probably came from a 2nd/3rd world country who sold out their infrastructure with the byproduct being their people’s suffering. This isn’t really scalable. DataOne is a spin out as BSO’s GPU data center division who have been in the datacenter business since 2024. DataOne/BSO like $IREN (-9.15%) had the foresight to procure long lead-time items.
5. So now the question is: what does it mean for $IREN (-9.15%) to over play their hand? Has CPU datacenter operators like $EQIX (-1.43%) ($75B), $DLR (-3.41%) ($55B), and many similar sized privately owned operators like BSO overplayed their hand? Why doesn’t AWS, GCP, Azure build more of it’s own datacenters instead of let $75B and $55B market cap “middle-men” develop? The GPU datacenter operator space will undoubtedly be larger than the CPU datacenter operator space and $IREN (-9.15%) will be 2-3x larger than $EQIX (-1.43%) and $DLR (-3.41%) once it’s said and done. And that’s if $IREN (-9.15%) doesn’t move up the software stack.
Sources:
(1)https://x.com/sectorsignals/status/1873257677595484382?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
(3) https://makayda.com/blog/what-is-capacity-factor
(4)https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-14th-five-year-plan/
(9)https://lailluminator.com/2025/08/20/entergy-meta/
(10) https://www.datacenterwatch.org/report
(11)https://x.com/umbisam/status/1968272986584351104?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
(12)https://x.com/fransbakker9812/status/1964911703059238927?s=46&t=5M46IuHFFx0VtfxNNuG8NA
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10 Comments
3Wk
I am honest. I didn't understand it. 🫣
Thanks for sharing anyway.
Thanks for sharing anyway.
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3Wk·
Reallocation - need your opinion
Hello everyone,
I am 20 years old, currently have a custody account of around CHF 37,000 with IBKR and save around CHF 600 per month.
My current statement:
- ETFs: $IWDA (-3.61%) (MSCI World), $IUIT (-6.02%) (S&P 500 IT), $IGLN (+1.66%) (Gold)
- Individual stocks: $NVDA (-6.14%) , $GOOGL (-3.4%) , $BRK.B (-2.44%) $IBKR, $RHM (-2.26%)
Cash: almost nothing
Considering:
- Selling some SWDA and also reducing some gold.
- With the capital freed up, invest more in S&P 500 / Nasdaq or in individual stocks ($MSFT (-3.3%) , $META (-5.02%) , $AMZN (-5.92%) , $NOVO B (-3.44%) ).
- Possibly also $BTC (+3.37%) slightly for more "risk-on".
My thoughts:
- MSCI World is too broad and too heavy in Europe/Japan for me, I see more long term return in the S&P 500.
- Gold is okay for safety, but maybe I don't need 10% at 20 years.
- I want more growth / oomph, I am also prepared to endure short-term fluctuations.
👉 Questions for you:
- Would you cut SWDA and weight S&P 500 / Nasdaq more instead?
- Reduce gold and increase tech or EM instead?
- Is it worth adding to Bitcoin or growth stocks like Novo Nordisk at my age in order to achieve even higher returns in the long term?
- Or would it be better to leave everything as it is and just optimize via the savings rate?
Thank you for your feedback 🚀
10Positions
CHF 37,622.06
7.32%
44
2 CommentsHello
If I were you, I would implement a targeted weighting via savings rate and "opportunities"...
Then, as I understand it, you want to keep all positions...
By the way, I find depot 👍
If I were you, I would implement a targeted weighting via savings rate and "opportunities"...
Then, as I understand it, you want to keep all positions...
By the way, I find depot 👍
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3Wk·
Duolingo facing the end?
For companies like $DUOL it is currently not an easy time. More and more big tech companies are launching new gadgets and features on the market to simplify translation and communication.
- Mark Zuckerberg and $META (-5.02%) have just introduced a new live translation feature for their AI glasses. The integrated display shows the translated text directly in front of your eyes like subtitles.
And that's only after $AAPL (-4.63%) and ChatGPT have also already entered the market. As a reminder:
- Apple: Real-time translation directly in AirPods → Users can communicate instantly in FaceTime, phone calls or messages without having to open a separate app.
- ChatGPT: AI-powered translationintegrated directly into everyday life → Voice input, texts or conversations can be translated seamlessly without a learning app in the background.
What do you think: is the business model of #Duolingo under pressure? You can definitely see the fear of investors in the share price.
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15 Comments
So I see two sides:
For Duolingo's business model, I don't even see the danger as being that great. For many people I know who use it, it's more of a pastime that feels more meaningful than social media. I don't see this being jeopardized by AI in the slightest, rather the opposite. More time = more willingness to fill it and do something "meaningful" with it. That can be good for Duolingo.
But on the other hand, I've always had the impression that Duolingo is incredibly overrated. It's by no means a junk company, but I can't really justify the growth the market is expecting, despite the good business performance so far, and perhaps the news is now catching up with the company.
For Duolingo's business model, I don't even see the danger as being that great. For many people I know who use it, it's more of a pastime that feels more meaningful than social media. I don't see this being jeopardized by AI in the slightest, rather the opposite. More time = more willingness to fill it and do something "meaningful" with it. That can be good for Duolingo.
But on the other hand, I've always had the impression that Duolingo is incredibly overrated. It's by no means a junk company, but I can't really justify the growth the market is expecting, despite the good business performance so far, and perhaps the news is now catching up with the company.
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