Coinbase ($COIN (-1.5%) ) and the crypto market mainly rise in phases of expansionary monetary policy by the FED. The restrictive monetary policy (high interest rates, shrinking of the balance sheet) as we have seen from 2022 onwards is capping the market. A return to a more expansive monetary policy could trigger a further rise in the crypto market and thus also at Coinbase.

Restrictive monetary policy from the central bank's perspective:

• Allow bonds to be sold or expire and retain the proceeds
• Interest rates rise

➔ Liquidity moves towards safe investments, which now generate higher returns

Expansive monetary policy from the central bank's perspective:

• Extensive purchase of government bonds and securities
• Interest rates fall

➔ Liquidity moves towards riskier investments

History:

2019-2021: Massive expansion of monetary policy due to COVID crisis

Result: Bitcoin and the crypto market rise en masse, Coinbase goes public in 2021

exchange at the peak of liquidity in the market.

2022: Start of the interest rate turnaround & a rapidly developing restrictive monetary policy

Result: Bitcoin and the crypto market fall

Current status:

We are still in a phase of restrictive monetary policy. The FED interest rate stands at 4.5% (as of June 25). The FED balance sheet is in a phase of contraction or sideways movement.

sideways movement. A return to an expansive monetary policy is currently not in sight.

in sight.

Why I see a lot of potential in the Coinbase share:

Should the FED feel compelled by future events to return to a drastically expansive monetary policy, then risky assets such as crypto would experience increased demand.

Coinbase could thus benefit disproportionately from the crypto market

Among other things, the company benefits from

• Trading volume
• Market interest among the general public and thus access to new customers
• Trading

The effect on Coinbase would be, among other things

• Speculation & trading increases
• Increased influx of new customers
• The trading volume explodes

My conclusion:

What we have seen so far in this bull cycle is only a foretaste of what is yet to

restrictive monetary policy is only a foretaste of what could still happen at Coinbase and the individual currencies. It will take some time for interest rates to fall back to 0-2% and for the Fed to be forced to loosen its monetary policy, but those who have the patience to wait will, in my opinion, benefit from this.

IMPORTANT: NO INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please do your own analysis and do not blindly

not blindly trust the analyses of others.

$BTC (-0.01%)
$COIN (-1.5%)

The crypto sector may be on the brink of a new golden era. On Monday, the US Senate voted with a clear majority in favor of moving forward with a groundbreaking stablecoin bill. According to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, this move could pave the way for a multi-year bull market in digital assets. He even compared the development to a "marriage of Wall Street and crypto".

The senators voted 66 to 32 in favor of continuing the so-called GENIUS Act. Even 16 Democrats, who had expressed their opposition last week, changed their minds and signaled cross-party support. Leading figures in the crypto industry and lawmakers celebrated the vote as a "historic victory" that could help "secure the dominance of the US dollar". However, before the bill can be finally passed, possible amendments still need to be approved and a final vote held after this procedural vote.

"The politicians in Washington did the right thing," Hougan wrote in a message to his clients late on Tuesday. "I don't want to call the day before the night, but it looks like we'll have the first full-fledged crypto bill in the US by the summer."

Bigger than Bitcoin ETFs?

Aside from the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, this is the most significant regulatory milestone in the history of cryptocurrencies, according to Hougan. Possibly even more significant.

However, there are also critical voices. Some warn that the Stablecoin Act could create a backdoor for a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren also criticized the bill for ignoring President Trump's crypto connections and family ties to World Liberty Financial's USD1 stablecoin.

A 2.5 trillion dollar market within reach

The GENIUS Act would require full coverage of stablecoins by US government bonds and dollar equivalents and introduce provisions for foreign issuers. Issuers with a market capitalization of over USD 50 billion would also be required to register with federal banking regulators and undergo annual audits. Stablecoin issuers would also have to implement anti-money laundering (AML) regulations for their tokens.

Stablecoins, one of the "killer apps" in the crypto space, have already reached a market capitalization of over USD 236 billion, according to data from The Block. However, they have long existed in a regulatory gray area, noted the Bitwise CIO. The new law would now give them state weight and allow major banks to issue stablecoins, as well as merchants to accept them.

"With these protections, I expect this to be a 2.5 trillion dollar market in no time," Hougan predicted. "Close your eyes and imagine a world where JPMorgan and Bank of America issue stablecoins, where Amazon gives you a two percent discount if you pay with stablecoins instead of Visa, and where it's as common to accept stablecoins as Venmo or PayPal. That's the world we'll soon be living in."

"A truly ingenious move"

For Hougan, stablecoins are just the beginning. Once the transfer of dollars via blockchain networks is normalized and some of the world's largest financial institutions participate, it will only be a small step to move stocks, bonds and other financial assets via the same rails.

"This is the fundamental thesis for investing in non-bitcoin crypto-assets like Ethereum, Solana and the like: that over 100 trillion dollars of financial assets will eventually move through blockchains. The passage of this bill gets that ball rolling," Hougan said. "A truly brilliant move."

CONCLUSION

Matt Hougan's statements carry weight. If the Stablecoin Act is actually passed in this form, it could trigger a new wave of adoption and capital inflow into the crypto sector. Investors stay on board.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/krypto/krypto-beben-in-washington-stablecoin-gesetz-befluegelt-startet-jetzt-die-mega-rally-20380567.html

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Back in April, when Donald Trump caused the stock markets to plummet, the crypto market remained stable and showed relative strength compared to other asset classes. With the recovery of the global stock markets, Bitcoin also made strong gains and once again established itself above the USD 100,000 mark. In the course of the recovery, shares in the segment benefited, above all the crypto exchange Coinbase. Since the low for the year on April 8, Coinbase has recorded a hefty gain of over 86% to USD 266.46. This has enabled Coinbase shares to sustainably break the downward trend that has been in place since December 2024. The breakout and support from the indicators point to a new all-time high of USD 349.49.

The company led by CEO Brian Armstrong was able to announce a milestone last week. Coinbase Global will become part of the S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial Services in the broad US market index from May 19. The index change is related to the planned takeover of Discover by Capital One Financial. The transaction volume amounts to USD 35.3 billion. If the merger is completed as planned on May 18, it will create the sixth largest bank in the USA. As a result, Discover will be removed from the S&P 500.

Coinbase is also planning to acquire Deribit Plattform. The Dubai-based company is the world's largest exchange for Bitcoin and Ether futures and options in terms of trading volume. The takeover price is expected to amount to USD 2.9 billion. Coinbase's market capitalization has risen to USD 67.87 billion in recent weeks.

https://www.kapitalerhoehungen.de/kommentare/renk-mimedia-holdings-coinbase-explosives-momentum

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$COIN (-1.5%)

For me, the fact that companies like Coinbase simply end up in the S&P 500 (or $MSTR in the NASDAQ) is precisely the reason why I have less and less confidence in the major indices such as the S&P500, NASDAQ or MSCI World. Sure, the percentage is small - but I still think it's wrong. For me, crypto is not an investment, but pure gambling: based on nothing real, just hype and fraud.

We're sitting in a room full of gasoline (read: overvaluation), and there are people with torches in the corner - so you shouldn't be surprised if the spark lights everything up at some point.

I don't mind paying a P/E ratio of 30 or 35 for real quality - but I wish there was an MSCI World without crypto stuff and meme stocks. It doesn't really exist, but I've built something that at least goes in that direction.

https://www.reuters.com/business/coinbase-shares-jump-addition-sp-500-index-2025-05-13/