Source: Finchat

$PLTR (+6.4%)

$NOW (+4.27%)

$SPOT (+1.45%)

$PANW (+3.72%)

$SHOP (+3.56%)

$CRWD (+6.51%)

$FTNT (+3.32%)

$ABNB (+2.19%)

$COIN (+3.21%)

$AXON (+0.37%)

$RBLX

$NET (+4.95%)

$HOOD (+7.05%)

$TTD (+7.35%)

$DUOL

$HIMS (+4.08%)

Customs war special: winners, losers, outlook

Subscribe to the podcast to end the tariff war.

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Cr722K3NaLxspBot2mBNM?si=eORJfrQJR3eDLplP35EYxw

YouTube

https://youtu.be/QOXd_qExpKc

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/83-zollkrieg-spezial-gewinner-verlierer-ausblick/id1695869891?i=1000702108083

#trump
#donaldtrump
#zoll
#zölle
#tariffs
#sp500
#nasdaq100
#dowjones
$AMZN (+3.74%)
$SBUX (+0.56%)
$GOOG (+5.13%)
$GOOGL (+5.72%)
$NET (+4.95%)
$PLTR (+6.4%)
$VNA (+2.12%)
$META (+3.74%)

If $NET (+4.95%) takes the 125.44 I'm in

Stop-buy order is at €1.45 on DE000HT1FBR8

Presumably because the New York Times reports on the Pentagon's war plans against China, which Musk was apparently briefed on at the Pentagon today.

In a military conflict between the two economic powers USA and China, the first "Line of Contact" would be a digital one: cyber attacks.

And even if only hypothetical scenarios are reported, this will probably already lead to an intensification of the constant mutual cyber attacks. Information is key.

• Cyberark $CYBR (+3.16%)
• Palantir Tech $PLTR (+6.4%)
• Check Point Software Technologies $CHKP (+1.71%)
• Crowdstrike $CRWD (+6.51%)
• VeriSign $VRSN (-2.16%)
• Zscaler $ZS (+3.64%)
• Okta $OKTA (+1.16%)
• Cloudflare $NET (+4.95%)
• Fortinet $FTNT (+3.32%)
• Cisco Systems $CSCO (+0.43%)
• Palo Alto Networks $PANW (+3.72%)
• Akamai Technologies $AKAM (+3.78%)
• BlackBerry $BB (+2.41%)
• NetScout Systems $NTCT (+1.32%)
• CommVault Systems $CVLT (+5.51%)

Sources:

• The Pentagon set up a briefing for Musk on plans for a potential war with China.
• NYTimes Liveblog: Trump Administration Live Updates: Trump Rejects Idea of Letting Musk See Secret Plans for War With China

#newyorktimes
#china
#usa
#trump
#pentagon
#elonmusk

Revenue Forward 3Y CAGR and Forward P/S Ratio (sorted in ascending order)

Hims & Hers: 31.9% / 3.4x $HIMS (+4.08%)

Spotify: 14.9% / 5.6x $SPOT (+1.45%)

Airbnb: 10.4% / 6.8x $ABNB (+2.19%)

Roblox: 19.4% / 7.3x $RBLX

Robinhood: 17.0% / 10.6x $HOOD (+7.05%)

The Trade Desk: 19,4% / 11,1x $TTD (+7.35%)

Fortinet: 14.4% / 11.5x $FTNT (+3.32%)

Shopify: 22.6% / 11.9x $SHOP (+3.56%)

Palo Alto Networks: 14.7% / 12.2x $PANW (+3.72%)

ServiceNow: 19.5% / 13.4x $NOW

Duolingo: 26.7% / 13.7x $DUOL

Axon Enterprise: 20.9% / 15.5x $AXON (+0.37%)

Crowdstrike: 22.5% / 17.2x $CRWD (+6.51%)

Cloudflare: 27.2% / 20.9x $NET (+4.95%)

Palantir: 30.8% / 52.6 $PLTR (+6.4%)

Palantir and Hims & Hers are not the same...

Even if Palantir increases its sales by an ambitious 30% every year over the next 10 years and achieves a free cash flow margin of 45% (!), the current share price is still >20% above fair value (assumption: 3% terminal growth, 8% discount rate) - even though the share has already corrected by >30%.

Your opinion?

I am looking forward to $PLTR (+6.4%) , $META (+3.74%) , $NET (+4.95%) and $SREN (-0.43%) ....

• Cloudflare $NET (+4.95%) reported earnings per share of USD 0.19 for the fourth quarter, which is USD 0.01 better than the analysts' estimate of USD 0.18.

• Revenue for the quarter was USD 459.9 million, above the consensus estimate of USD 452.04 million.

Forecast 2025

• Cloudflare expects earnings per share of USD 0.16 for the first quarter of 2025, which is below the analyst estimate of USD 0.18.

• Cloudflare expects revenue for the first quarter of 2025 to be between USD 468.00 million and USD 469.00 million, which is below the analyst estimate of USD 474.10 million.

• For the full year 2025, Cloudflare forecasts earnings per share of USD 0.79 to USD 0.80, which is above the analyst estimate of USD 0.74.

• Cloudflare expects full-year 2025 revenue of USD 2.09 billion, slightly below the analyst estimate of USD 2.10 billion.

$NET (+4.95%) Earnings will come in a week.

Since Cloudflare has performed extremely well in recent months, I have partially sold a little less than my stake (approx. 40%)

Let's see what the earnings say. If the price comes back a little, I'll buy again.

How do you think the earnings will be?

... of infrastructure software.

The low cost of training and inference of the new model could trigger a new wave of AI adoption by improving the economics of AI projects and thus enabling wider use.

Increasing demand through lower costs:

DeepSeek's model offers superior inference performance at a disruptively low cost, which is expected to increase demand for AI solutions.

Bernstein points to previous examples, such as OpenAI's 4o-mini model, which promised lower prices with higher quality and increased usage by 50% within a quarter. Such effects could also occur again with DeepSeek.

Winners at the software infrastructure level:

Despite lower computational intensity, higher demand leads to opportunities for software vendors that provide the infrastructure for AI projects. This includes areas such as:

Data infrastructure (e.g. Confluent $CFLT (+5.87%) )

Identity management (e.g. Okta $OKTA (+1.16%) )

Observability tools (e.g. Datadog $DDOG (+1.55%) )

Communication technology (e.g. Twilio $TWLO (+5.55%) )

Browser integration and delivery (e.g. Cloudflare $NET (+4.95%) )

Platforms for service desk AI projects (e.g. ServiceNow $NOW (+4.27%) ) could also benefit, especially if they introduce a consumption-based pricing model that covers inference costs.