1Wk·

Time to go short

Dear Community,

now that Captain Orange seems to have his back so far to the wall and only knows how to help himself with absolutely pointless threats against Iran, I think I'll place two shorts tomorrow!

The situation: Trump has given Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz completely, otherwise he will attack the country's energy supply (including the oil fields)! Since Iran will certainly not listen to Trump, I assume that the war will escalate completely this week and the oil price will reach or even crack 150 dollars.

I have therefore considered investing in the $QQQS (+0.03%) and the $3DES (+1.53%) to get in! My question is not whether I should do this (I'm not looking for investment advice 😉), but what you think of the two shorts or whether you have better alternatives!

Have a great Sunday and enjoy the weather, even if the world is in chaos right now 😅 😉

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60 Comments

Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

1Wk

Be careful, Trump is interested in a rising stock market and falling oil prices, the mid-terms are not far off... 🗳️

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Klein-Anleger I'm fully aware of that, which is why I can't understand Trump's actions at all! But ok, let's ask ourselves the question: Trump wants falling oil prices and a rising stock market! HOW does he want to achieve this? Just say: Ok, let's end the war and go home? At the moment, I can't think of any scenario that would put an end to the whole thing... In my opinion, Trump has got himself into a situation where he no longer knows how to get out! That's why he's now suddenly distracting himself with Cuba 😉

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

1Wk

@Klein-Anleger 03.11.

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

1Wk

@Sansebastian Inflation is a long process. If oil prices shoot up now, this will gradually make itself felt along the entire value chain. This means that in six months - three quarters of a year at the latest - every consumer in the United States will notice that prices are rising significantly. It would then no longer make sense to push the oil price to $40 a week before the election. And I think Donald Trump knows that too.

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Klein-Anleger The mid-terms are over for Trump and he should know that! He and his whole party have a disastrous reputation in the midterms! Although you never know with Trump... maybe he still thinks the whole country adores him 😂

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Jupp D.@JuppDupp

1Wk

@BavarianLion Where does this information come from?

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@JuppDupp What info?

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Jupp D.@JuppDupp

1Wk

@BavarianLion that Trump or the Reps should have a disastrous reputation?

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@JuppDupp This is openly communicated on many American (political) sites! Many voters are disappointed with Trump because he promised peace and is now starting a disastrous war! I also read a poll that now puts the Reps at 25%! But the decisive factor is simply the war in Iran and the forced price increases that followed, which the people will not forgive him for!

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Klein-Anleger@Klein-Anleger

1Wk

@BavarianLion What German radio says is by no means set in stone. I wouldn't be as sure as you are! ✌️

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Klein-Anleger That's not coming from German radio, I haven't listened to it for 10 years 😉 But it's no secret that the MAGA movement is now divided by the war! Even Taylor M. Greene, once an ardent Trump supporter, has now publicly criticized him for the Iran war!

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SanSebastian@WarrenamBuffet

1Wk

The question is whether the threats will continue

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@WarrenamBuffet That was exactly my assumption, it doesn't stop at threats, Trump attacks the oil fields and things really escalate and the stock market plummets! Then I would like to be in the right place 😉

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SanSebastian@WarrenamBuffet

1Wk

@BavarianLion jop then you are well positioned. If not, it can quickly go against you

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@WarrenamBuffet Yes, absolutely clear! Of course, if the Orange One pulls a solution out of a hat (which I highly doubt, as Iran won't play along 😉) then it will backfire big time!
What do you think of the 2 shorts mentioned? Do you think they're good or would you choose others?

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SanSebastian@WarrenamBuffet

1Wk

@BavarianLion I believe that if this scenario materializes, you are right everywhere - s&p 500, NASDAQ, dax, etc

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Dividenden-Penner@Dividenden-Penner

1Wk

The good old Ferengi rules of acquisition are always right, in this case no. 34: "War is good for business."☠️

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1Wk

He can say on Monday lunchtime that all is well with Iran 🇮🇷 best friends and so....

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@TechNav He can definitely do that, the only question is whether the Iranians will play along with this game! What would happen if the Iranians said: No way, we're going to fight to the bitter end...
Especially as there are also a lot of religious fanatics there😉 And then Captain Orange would look very old!

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1Wk

@TechNav The problem is probably that the Iranians now have the upper hand. And they are more capable of suffering than Trump's Republicans. They don't want an end to the war, they want the USA to withdraw from the entire region.
Trump has found his teacher and I hope that the Europeans will leave him to pick up the pieces.

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Olli68 Exactly! Even if Trump wants to stop, the Iranians don't want to stop! In his delusions of grandeur, Trump has got involved in a game that he can't win! That's why the short tomorrow!

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1Wk

@BavarianLion Trump also knows that if he simply goes out again, perhaps selling it as a victory in the US, China will appear in the region, pacify it (Iran and the Gulf states), bring food and the region's oil will in future be sold exclusively in yuan or gold.
The petrodollar is history and the US financial system and the US economy will collapse.

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Olli68 Well, of course that makes things even more difficult! He also has massive domestic (economic) problems! I don't want to be a spoilsport, but I think 2008 was a joke in comparison (from a stock market perspective)! Trump has stirred up a hornet's nest and now he doesn't know how to save himself...

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1Wk

@BavarianLion This is what it looks like 👍 👍 👍
The world will no longer be the same after this war. It will change from a US or US dollar hegemony to a China or BRICS hegemony.
I don't like that either, but I expect it. And the USA could only prevent it with a WW3.

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Daniel@Daniel1212

1Wk

Boy oh boy... It's the same here every Sunday. But next week it really will be the end of the world, won't it?

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Daniel1212 You're closing your eyes to reality! Do you seriously think I think that's cool? I would also like the world to be as it was, but Trump has unfortunately opened Pandora's box... that will plunge the world into disaster!

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Daniel1212 What will you do if Iran really does send missiles to Europe? They have already proven that they are capable of doing so... bad enough!

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Daniel@Daniel1212

1Wk

What should I do then? I can't change it. But you shouldn't let this media fear machine drive you crazy either. As far as I know, Iran has fired two missiles over 4000km. They didn't hit anything. Sure, they can do it at random. But why should they? Why would Putin attack NATO? Nevertheless, some poor wimp claims it every week on some talk show.
It will probably be something between "we won't live to see next Christmas" and "Iran will capitulate tomorrow". I'm guessing something much closer to the latter scenario. And then we'll move on.

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Rainero@MozartsGeist

1Wk

Itching for profit on the "Fastlane"?

In order to secure your portfolio, you would have to enter both of the positions you mentioned with the appropriate volume, otherwise it would be cosmetic!
What could happen on the stock markets as a worst-case maximum drawdown? Minus 20... 30... or even 40 %?
If you don't have to get your obviously sensibly invested money tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, why panic and make speculative bets now?

Otherwise, you should fundamentally review the structure of your asset allocation. 😊

*(My personal opinion, not financial advice)

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@MozartsGeist I completely understand your opinion and think it's a good one 👍 I'm completely satisfied with my portfolio as it is now and have never been keen on making a quick buck in my 7 years on the stock market! I've NEVER "gambled", but somehow I'm itching to this time. It's not about "hedging" or anything like that, but really about making a profit from the current situation 😉 I've always said that with my portfolio I can sleep peacefully even at -40% and sit it out! Think long-term 💪

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Rainero@MozartsGeist

1Wk

Fair enough! 😁

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@MozartsGeist Feel free to take a look at my portfolio, it's publicly posted on my profile 😉 As I said, I was really just interested in taking a risk! I've also never "experimented" with this kind of thing before, so I would have placed about 1k per short!

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AkeOSelman@AkeOSelman

1Wk

Maybe just take your hands off the keyboard for a few days. Don't try to time the market

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fund_navigator_elshq@fund_navigator_elshq

1Wk

The mistake starts here: "Since Iran certainly won't listen to Trump..."

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@fund_navigator_elshq I don't quite understand the statement! Why should Iran comply with any of Trump's demands?

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Daniel@Daniel1212

1Wk

@BavarianLion Because nothing can get in through the Strait of Hormuz if it is closed. And Iran, like the entire region, cannot supply itself. If the energy infrastructure is also in the bag, who has the longer leverage? At some point, people will finally get on top of you.

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Daniel1212 The people have been trying to "get on top" of the regime for years! They are being bludgeoned as usual! We are dealing here with religious fanatics who now see their chance to destroy the "West"! They want the war to escalate, or why are they shooting at their neighboring countries?

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Daniel@Daniel1212

1Wk

Every week we speculate here about what will happen next. I'm sticking to my guns. At some point, the trigger will no longer be pulled. The regime won't shoot itself.

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@Daniel1212 This war will certainly end sooner or later! I also think that far too many private investors are currently concentrating on the war and oil prices! When the war is over, the real reason why the stock market will plummet in the next few years will come to light! The catastrophic economic situation in the USA! If you take a closer look at the data and, above all, see the liquidity outflows... then everyone should know what's coming! 🤯

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Fredi K.@equity_expert_1695

1Wk

@BavarianLion why don't you sell everything when extreme crashes come in the next few years? 🤔

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@equity_expert_1695 Why should I sell my main portfolio? This is buy & hold for 30 years! But it might get even worse than I thought! I expect a crash and then a bear market for about 10 years! Drawdown certainly 50% possibly even more! Anyone who understands anything about economics should see that!

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Fredi K.@equity_expert_1695

1Wk

@BavarianLion With a drawdown of over 50%, you can sell and pay taxes without any worries? You don't even have to buy back at the low point to make a significant profit 🤔

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Wk

@equity_expert_1695 Yes, but then I would have the money in my account and at my disposal! Then the risk of spending it is greater! So I'd rather leave it in the portfolio, maybe collect a few dividends and in about 5 years when the low point is reached you can start buying more! In about 10 years the stock market should normalize again!

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Fredi K.@equity_expert_1695

1Wk

@BavarianLion You just said that the bear market will last 10 years, so why should you buy after 5 years? And you can transfer the money to an overnight money account if you're afraid to spend it 😂

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1Wk

Good idea. I can understand that 👍

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Mathias@mtume505

1Wk

Völlig
geisteskrank.

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