1Mon·

Mag-7 & Co.: Cheap vs. expensive - where is it worth buying?

$AAPL (+2.1%)
$MSFT (+1.09%)
$NVDA (+3.56%)
$AMZN (+3.28%)
$GOOGL (+3.76%)
$META (+2.51%)
$TSLA (+7.5%)
$AVGO (+0.27%)
$NFLX (-0.19%)
$AMD (+2.19%)

Absolute valuation levels


Above all Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, AMD and Amazon are quoted below their long-term median multiples.

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Valuation multiples compared to expected sales growth


If the expected sales growth by analysts over the next 3 years the following picture emerges...


  • Per 1% growth, the following appear to be the most important Nvidia, AMD, Google, Meta and Amazon appear the most favorable.


  • Apple performs less well here due to its slow growth, but the company is not generally unattractive as an investment, e.g. due to the high buybacks.


  • Tesla appears expensive at first glance - however, the forward P/S is currently not excessively high due to the distorted earnings.


  • Netflix had a good run and appears somewhat expensive compared to growth, at least on the basis of multiples. The situation is similar for Broadcom.


  • Microsoft swims in the midfield.


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What do you think of the valuation levels of Mag-7 & Co.

6
13 Comments

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The problem I see is that the multiples are still based on old figures. If there is a recession in the USA, as it looks like there will be, profits will fall and multiples will rise.
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Before buying shares, I always make tables to evaluate the candidates and usually choose the one that is the most promising according to the table. Unfortunately, the stock market doesn't always stick to this... 😢
But it's an absolutely useful tool that you've created to get a feel for the valuation of the shares.
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@SimonSays97 80-90% is too much I think. But 50% is realistic from the top. And we already had 40 with Meta, Nividia and with $TSLA 70% is also realistic.
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On what grounds?
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