Salesforce share: Chart from 04.06.2025, price: USD 264.47 - symbol: CRM | Source: TWS
Not much time has passed since the last analysis of Salesforce (Nach den Quartalszahlen: Droht Salesforce jetzt der Absturz?) not much time has passed, but a lot has happened.
The share has lost value as expected, there have been Quartalszahlen and a billion-dollar takeover has been completed - but one thing at a time.
At the time, the share had formed a double top at USD 367 and it was therefore likely that it would go one or two levels lower.
This is what happened, but since then the technical situation has changed. The important Unterstützung at USD 230 has held, creating a multiple bottom.
This puts the bulls back in a much better position.
If the price now manages to rise above USD 270, a renewed rise towards USD 284 or USD 296 can be expected. Above this, the path towards USD 310 would be clear.
If, on the other hand, the share falls below USD 250, further price losses to USD 230 must be expected. Below this level, the chart picture would become permanently gloomier.
However, these are only short-term considerations. The long-term direction of the share price will be decided elsewhere - on the fundamental front.
Quarterly figures
In the first quarter, earnings of USD 2.58 per share were well above expectations of USD 2.54. With sales of USD 9.80 billion, the company also exceeded analysts' estimates of USD 9.78 billion.
For the year as a whole, this corresponds to an 8% increase in sales and a 6% jump in profits.
The most relevant Kennzahl however, is the free cash flow, which increased by 4% to USD 6.3 billion.
Of this, USD 2.7 billion was used for share buybacks and USD 402 million for the payment of a Dividende payment.
The major growth driver in the Group is Data Cloud and AI. It could also be said that many customers are switching to the new systems, which is causing friction in the short term.
Over the year as a whole, ARR in this segment has risen by 120% to more than USD 1 billion.
Outlook and valuation
The easiest way to see where things are heading is to look at the order backlog (current remaining performance obligation), which increased by 12% to USD 29.6 billion.
Growth momentum is therefore likely to pick up again in the near future.
The sales forecast for the current financial year has therefore been raised from USD 40.5 - 40.9 billion to USD 41.0 - 41.3 billion and the earnings forecast from USD 11.09 - 11.17 to USD 11.27 - 11.33 per share.
Free cash flow is expected to increase by 9 to 10 %. As the number of outstanding Aktien is declining, the consensus estimates of an 11% increase in FCF per share to USD 11.31 per share are plausible.
Salesforce therefore has a forward P/FCF of 23.4, which is reasonable in view of all the facts available.
