5D·

Hims & Hers: Still "cheap" after a strong run?

Hims & Hers $HIMS (-26.15%) has recently had a strong run:

Performance YTD: +140%

Performance 1 year: +553%

Currently Hims & Hers $HIMS (-26.15%) with a price / sales ratio of 10,6x with an expected annual sales growth of >50% for the next 2 years.

Here you can see the ratio for other selected companies with expected double-digit sales growth for the next few years:

Tesla $TSLA (-4.32%) 11.7x (17% sales CAGR next 2 years)

ServiceNow $NOW : 18,5x (19%)

Shopify $SHOP (-5.86%): 18,7x (22%)

Robinhood $HOOD (-7.16%) : 19,6x (16%)

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG (-1.15%) : 25,4x (15%)

Axon Enterprise $AXON (-4.57%) : 26,9x (28%)

Duolingo $DUOL : 27,6x (35%)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (-6.19%) : 29,7x (25%)

Palantir $PLTR (-3.33%) : 94,7x (29%)

The comparison is, of course, a bit of a stretch, but it is still interesting to see how Hims & Hers $HIMS (-26.15%) stands relative to other companies.

What do you think?

21 Comments

Aktienfoxx@Aktienfoxx

No taxes paid, and stay in I got in at 6€ and still hold everything, and keep buying :)

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~ S.@Semos25

@Aktienfoxx Would you still buy at this price or would you rather wait until after the QZs?

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@Aktienfoxx You have earned every euro of profit!

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Bubu@Bubu_98

Exactly the same for me! EK 7€ last bought in August 23 and never sold! Buy & Hold!

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Aktienfoxx@Aktienfoxx

@thewolfofallstreetz thank you, buy & hold

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Aktienfoxx@Aktienfoxx

@Semos25 can play it safe and wait, the figures will be good, but Q2 will be really exciting

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@Aktienfoxx That's the game, Baby

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Yasin21@Yasin21

How did you come across the share back then? How good is your hit rate when selecting shares?

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Money Game@MoneyGame

Hims has simply been extremely undervalued in recent years. Even after this rally, they still have a lot of potential. This becomes even clearer when you look at the YoY growth rates of the stocks you mentioned. Here Hims leaves almost all of them far behind.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@MoneyGame Have added the expected sales growth

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@MoneyGame I wonder why the market didn't give them a higher multiple back then with the growth and early profitability - probably because of the industry. What do you think?

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Money Game@MoneyGame

@thewolfofallstreetz The arguments 3 years ago were always that they didn't have a real moat and that players like Amazon could replicate everything very quickly. Then low-cost pharmacies like "Cost Plus" came onto the market, which were much cheaper than Hims, and still are, but have never managed to get their online business off the ground.

I think it will remain very volatile here, any news can quickly cause it to go down 30%. But if the management continues to perform so well and can maintain the growth rates, it should go much higher in the long term.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@MoneyGame In theory, it doesn't seem particularly "difficult" to replicate this. However, they seem to have found a way that gives them a potentially sustainable advantage. Good value for money, process strength, personalization, high customer satisfaction and lock-in effect, etc. What do you think is the "secret sauce"?

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Money Game@MoneyGame

@thewolfofallstreetz 1) I think they have built a very strong and cool brand. 2) I think there is extreme customer loyalty in this market of shameful products. Someone who has a prescription for Viagra and has found someone who reliably writes prescriptions is not likely to switch. The same applies to almost all Hims products (hair loss, GLP1, testosterone, etc.).

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@MoneyGame They definitely have. Have you ever found concrete figures on customer churn? I only ever read about "85%+ long-term retention" for subscriptions that last longer than 2 years.

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Money Game@MoneyGame

@thewolfofallstreetz No idea, I've never seen anything about it either.

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Bubu@Bubu_98

Some reports currently expect around 550-600M for Q1.
Over 4 quarters, we will move towards 2.5 B in 25. This means that the KUV will quickly shrink back towards 6.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@Bubu_98 Of course, provided they can maintain growth as expected. Analysts on average expect $470m in sales for Q4. The question will be when the shortage of semaglutide will be over and what impact that will have on the company. In the long term, this should not stop Hims & Hers from being successful if they continue to "execute" like this.

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Bubu@Bubu_98

@thewolfofallstreetz Yes, that's true. But I think that many of the new customers will then simply use a different variant. Either Liraglutide (coming in H1 25) or their oral version.
Your target group definitely doesn't have the money to spend $1000 a month on the original from Novo or Lilly.

In addition, testosterone and menopause are coming in 2025. The new categories will not be directly profitable but they will definitely be able to maintain sales growth.

Management has always been convincing so far 💪

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

@Bubu_98 I agree, I'm not nervous about GLP-1, but nobody should be surprised if it drops 20-30% if that happens. The market likes to overreact to the stock. I just want to see it continue to "execute" and the fundamentals are going in the right direction long term. I have added the expected sales growth above for better classification.

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Julius@Aktienmeer

@Bubu_98 Liraglutide is very, very old hat and cannot even remotely compete with Semaglutide, Tirzepatide or Retatrutide. You don't make big sales with them these days.

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