Joar, what can I say. I basically like the profile, but the valuation is completely astronomical compared to the guidance etc.. For me, a clear "hands off" at the price. I even come up with an FCF yield of < 1. KUV beyond good and evil.
And the whole thing coupled with a big sales cluster risk in China and Taiwan (~60%!!!).
Unfortunately, therefore, nothing for me at the current level.
Once again Rob's conclusion for you:
We love high-margin compounders and we love semiconductor specialists. But we are not lemmings who chase after every hype. Nova is a dream of a company in operational terms, but at the current share price it is a ticking valuation bomb. If you have already collected the share at the bottom: Congratulations, take partial profits! If you are thinking about a new entry: don't. We'll wait until the market calms down and puts the share back in front of our feet at reasonable prices. The gatekeeper says: Israelis won't get into the portfolio at this price!
And the whole thing coupled with a big sales cluster risk in China and Taiwan (~60%!!!).
Unfortunately, therefore, nothing for me at the current level.
Once again Rob's conclusion for you:
We love high-margin compounders and we love semiconductor specialists. But we are not lemmings who chase after every hype. Nova is a dream of a company in operational terms, but at the current share price it is a ticking valuation bomb. If you have already collected the share at the bottom: Congratulations, take partial profits! If you are thinking about a new entry: don't. We'll wait until the market calms down and puts the share back in front of our feet at reasonable prices. The gatekeeper says: Israelis won't get into the portfolio at this price!
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin The company really isn't bad. But as you write, it's a watchlist. And more likely to pick up in a weakness
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•@Tenbagger2024 That's exactly what I did first. Put it on the watch. Otherwise mega but price completely detached from the foundation currently.🤷🏼♂️
My DCF analysis:
Even if I assume a significantly accelerated sales growth of 25% p.a. for Nova for the next 5 years (which is almost twice as high as the current guidance!) and increase the FCF margin to 25%, I arrive at a fair value of around $245 with a WACC of 8.5%!
Fundamentally, the company is so overvalued. Should Nova come closer to the fundamentals at some point, we are talking about a potential downside of ~50%.
My DCF analysis:
Even if I assume a significantly accelerated sales growth of 25% p.a. for Nova for the next 5 years (which is almost twice as high as the current guidance!) and increase the FCF margin to 25%, I arrive at a fair value of around $245 with a WACC of 8.5%!
Fundamentally, the company is so overvalued. Should Nova come closer to the fundamentals at some point, we are talking about a potential downside of ~50%.
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I am therefore really surprised that the analysts are still so optimistic
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•@Tenbagger2024 also surprises me somewhat. The hype continues to be rated as sheer hype.🤷🏼♂️ Also among analysts. Although there is always the question of who covers them.
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