JRow · 2023-09-08T11:05:52.283571Z

Servus zusammen, aufgrund der aktuellen makroökonomischen und geopolitischen Entwicklungen reduziere ich seit längerem meine Exposition gegenüber Aktien und insbesondere gegenüber Einzeltiteln. Mein Ziel ist es etwa 20% bis 30% Cash zu halten.* Derzeitige beabsichtige ich weiterhin Einzeltitel zu halten, die u.a. über hohe Cash-Reserven verfügen und von der steigenden Zinslast, z.B. durch das Ausfallrisiko von Kreditverbindlichkeiten, nicht übermäßig negativ betroffen sind. Auch Aktien wie $PLTR meide ich, da dies für mich reine Spekulationsobjekte sind. Dies gilt ebenfalls für Turnaround-Kandidaten. Darüber hinaus habe ich einen Teil meiner Anlagen in ETFs umgeschichtet, um breiter diversifiziert zu sein. Langfristig ändert dies jedoch nichts an meinen Plänen, weiterhin in den Markt zu investieren und Aktien zu Preisen zu kaufen, die ich für angemessen halte. Zu diesem Zweck verwende ich u.a. die DCF-Methode und den Multiple-Ansatz. Was ist eure derzeitige Strategie? #timeinthemarket #timingthemarket Viele Grüße JRow Käufe (Auszug): $GGRP $DGRP $XEON Watchlist (Auszug): $AAPL - Kauf bei USD 150 und USD 120 $MC - Kauf bei unter EUR 500 $V - Kauf zwischen USD 130 und USD 120 $PLTR - Erneuter Kauf bei unter USD 10 $IONQ - Erneuter Kauf bei unter USD 10 Verkäufe (Auszug): $JPM $BAC $BAYN $ALV $RWE $ENEL $PG $DTE $BNP $JNJ $IONQ $PLTR $9988 *20% Cash beziehen sich nur auf die Vermögenswerte, die ich für Investitionen beiseite lege

@JRow

1Yr·

Servus together,

due to the current macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, I have been reducing my exposure to equities and especially individual stocks for some time. My goal is to hold about 20% to 30% cash.*

Currently, I intend to continue to hold individual stocks that, among other things, have high cash reserves and are not unduly negatively impacted by the rising interest rate burden, e.g., due to the risk of default on loan obligations. I also avoid shares as $PLTR (+2.65%) I avoid, as these are pure speculative objects for me. This also applies to turnaround candidates. In addition, I have shifted part of my investments into ETFs in order to be more broadly diversified.

In the long term, however, this does not change my plans to continue to invest in the market and buy stocks at prices I consider reasonable. For this purpose, I use the DCF method and the multiple approach, among others.

What is your current strategy?

#timeinthemarket
#timingthemarket

Many greetings

JRow

Purchases (excerpt):

$GGRP (+0.33%)

$DGRP

$XEON (-0.02%)

Watchlist (excerpt):

$AAPL (-0.79%) - Buy at USD 150 and USD 120

$MC (+1.76%) - Buy at below EUR 500

$V (-0.06%) - Buy between USD 130 and USD 120

$PLTR (+2.65%) - Buy again at below USD 10

$IONQ - Buy again at below USD 10

Sales (excerpt):

*20% Cash refers only to the assets I set aside for investments.

6 Comments

Kai@Dividenden-Sammler

1Yr

hmmm is there not a contradiction in your statements? First you say that you avoid $PLTR because they are pure speculative objects for you just like turnaround candidates but on the other hand you have them on the watchlist and think about a new purchase at the appropriate price ?

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JRow@JRow

1Yr

@Dividenden-Sammler Very good point! At the current price, this is pure speculation for me. To justify the current price, I would have to expect a significant increase in sales growth. I would also have to assume that the one-year contracts with the U.S. government would be steadily renewed. The assumptions are pure speculation for me, as I cannot derive the assumptions. Therefore, I calculate with the DCF method with the current growth figures.

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Julian@julian5125

1Yr

So when I look at your watchlist with the planned buy orders, I would assume that you are already expecting a strong correction / crash.

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JRow@JRow

1Yr

@julian5125 Yes, I believe that something will come. Especially since the multiples of the shares are still quite high and some of the companies are very highly indebted. In addition, there is a lot of U.S. data that suggests that consumers are no longer able to finance their consumption for as long as they used to. Consequently, they are also not supporting the U.S. economy. If there is no setback, there is currently at least interest on my cash reserve :)

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Julian@julian5125

1Yr

@JRow I am also skeptical that this can continue. The Americans, for example, seem to be burdened with credit card debts (Tim Schäfer once said that some of them have 10 such cards). What would be indicators for you if your scenario changes positively/negatively?

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JRow@JRow

1Yr

@julian5125 I don't think the question can be explained quite simply. On the one hand, there are qualitative aspects - my gut feeling - and quantitative aspects on the other. Let's leave the qualitative aspects aside and go into some quantitative aspects that I consider relevant (excerpt):

(1) Inverse yield curve - the yield curve of the 10-year and three-month U.S. government bonds should sustainably no longer be inverted (2) The Fed should keep its interest rates the same and the market should start pricing in interest rate cuts (no zero interest rate policy) <- geht mit (1) einher
(3) Die Inflation in den USA sollte sich stabilisieren (ob es jetzt wirklich das 2% Ziel ist oder wir uns bei 3% bewegen ist mir dabei egal, es muss nur kalkulierbarer werden)
(4) Die Arbeitslosenquote in den USA sollte sich erhöhen (>5%) (5) The U.S. should have replenished its strategic oil reserves (6) House prices in the U.S. should continue to fall (7) Private debt should be declining. Currently about 61% of Americans are living from "paycheck to paycheck" and starting Oct 1operatively-if I'm not mistaken-student loan repayments start again, which should have a significant impact on the US market (8) China should announce youth unemployment figures again I tend to focus on the US market, as I think Germany is irrelevant and the market mechanism is not working due to some kind of over-regulation. But since this should not degenerate into a political discussion, I'll stick to the statement. What are your indicators?

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