"Hello Mr. Tenbagger,
First of all, respect for the neat elaboration! With Moog Inc. (MOG.A) you have definitely not chosen an air number, but a real traditional company with a moat. The story you describe (order backlog, defense boom, aging aircraft) is absolutely right in terms of content.
But let's look at the whole thing calmly and objectively and run the share through my filters with today's latest figures.
1. the hard valuation ratios
To get a feel for how "expensive" the story currently is, here are the bare facts (as at March 2026)
* P/E ratio (price-earnings ratio): ~39.2
* KCV (price-cash flow ratio): ~24.6
* KUV (price-sales ratio): ~2.5
* P/B (Price-Book Value Ratio): ~4.4
* Dividend yield: 0.38
2. the reality check with my formulas
A) Core Quality Formula (Qualitative Growth)
* Sales growth: approx. 7 % (financial year 2025: from USD 3.6 bn to USD 3.86 bn)
* Operating margin: 13.0% (adjusted margin for 2025)
* My score: 7 + 13 = 20
* Verdict: Solid (15-25). Moog is doing well in terms of quality and the management is managing to increase margins slightly. But it is a very capital-intensive business and not a high-margin software company.
B) Cashflow Quality Formula (The Cash Machine?)
* Free cash flow (FCF) was around USD 128 million in 2025.
* With a current market capitalization of approx. USD 10.1 bn, this results in an FCF yield of an extremely meager ~1.26%.
* Verdict: My target for a real cash machine is > 5 %. Moog is very weak here. The company has to tie up and invest a lot of cash in operations, which leaves little free cash for shareholders (measured by the share price).
C) Dividend filter
* The yield of 0.38% mercilessly breaks my absolute minimum requirement (>= 3.5%).
* Verdict: Completely failed.
💡 Conclusion: A great company, but not a good share (for me)
Mr. Tenbagger, you did a great job analyzing the company. Moog is the classic "shovel seller" for aviation and defense. BUT: The market already knows that!
With a P/E ratio of just under 40, this industrial stock is currently as expensive on the stock market as a hyped tech rocket. If the defense budgets or aircraft construction stutter even briefly, there is a lot of room to fall at this valuation.
To become a "tenbagger", the value of the company would have to increase tenfold to over 100 billion dollars. With 7% sales growth, that would take decades.
For my portfolio, the share is a clear no, as the dividend is practically non-existent and the free cash flow does not justify the expensive valuation. It's a rock-solid value for you if you ignore the price - but it's unlikely to become a tenbagger.
Keep up the good work, the analyses are getting more and more solid!"
First of all, respect for the neat elaboration! With Moog Inc. (MOG.A) you have definitely not chosen an air number, but a real traditional company with a moat. The story you describe (order backlog, defense boom, aging aircraft) is absolutely right in terms of content.
But let's look at the whole thing calmly and objectively and run the share through my filters with today's latest figures.
1. the hard valuation ratios
To get a feel for how "expensive" the story currently is, here are the bare facts (as at March 2026)
* P/E ratio (price-earnings ratio): ~39.2
* KCV (price-cash flow ratio): ~24.6
* KUV (price-sales ratio): ~2.5
* P/B (Price-Book Value Ratio): ~4.4
* Dividend yield: 0.38
2. the reality check with my formulas
A) Core Quality Formula (Qualitative Growth)
* Sales growth: approx. 7 % (financial year 2025: from USD 3.6 bn to USD 3.86 bn)
* Operating margin: 13.0% (adjusted margin for 2025)
* My score: 7 + 13 = 20
* Verdict: Solid (15-25). Moog is doing well in terms of quality and the management is managing to increase margins slightly. But it is a very capital-intensive business and not a high-margin software company.
B) Cashflow Quality Formula (The Cash Machine?)
* Free cash flow (FCF) was around USD 128 million in 2025.
* With a current market capitalization of approx. USD 10.1 bn, this results in an FCF yield of an extremely meager ~1.26%.
* Verdict: My target for a real cash machine is > 5 %. Moog is very weak here. The company has to tie up and invest a lot of cash in operations, which leaves little free cash for shareholders (measured by the share price).
C) Dividend filter
* The yield of 0.38% mercilessly breaks my absolute minimum requirement (>= 3.5%).
* Verdict: Completely failed.
💡 Conclusion: A great company, but not a good share (for me)
Mr. Tenbagger, you did a great job analyzing the company. Moog is the classic "shovel seller" for aviation and defense. BUT: The market already knows that!
With a P/E ratio of just under 40, this industrial stock is currently as expensive on the stock market as a hyped tech rocket. If the defense budgets or aircraft construction stutter even briefly, there is a lot of room to fall at this valuation.
To become a "tenbagger", the value of the company would have to increase tenfold to over 100 billion dollars. With 7% sales growth, that would take decades.
For my portfolio, the share is a clear no, as the dividend is practically non-existent and the free cash flow does not justify the expensive valuation. It's a rock-solid value for you if you ignore the price - but it's unlikely to become a tenbagger.
Keep up the good work, the analyses are getting more and more solid!"
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@Raketentoni Quality has its price
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•@Tenbagger2024 but quantity also has its own quality 😂
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•@Raketentoni you should develop Mr. Prompt into an honorary stock advisor. However, he should start by questioning his clients very carefully. About risk tolerance, investment behavior, whether growth or dividends, etc. In order to be able to respond precisely to their needs
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•@Tenbagger2024 yes that's a good idea, i'll get to it this week 👍😬
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@Raketentoni that will definitely be mega 😘
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@Raketentoni
Could your Mister Prompt analyze Siemens?
That would help me a lot. It's my biggest position and due to the price drop I'm itching to add to it.
Thank you very much
Could your Mister Prompt analyze Siemens?
That would help me a lot. It's my biggest position and due to the price drop I'm itching to add to it.
Thank you very much
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@capital_captain_2693 I'll finish it for you later
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•@capital_captain_2693
When the largest position in your portfolio falls and your fingers are itching to buy more, you need a cool head. The share price has fallen from its 52-week high of just under € 276 to currently around € 230.
Here is an objective and precise analysis of the current situation at Siemens (as at March 2026) so that you can make an informed decision:
### 🏭 Fundamental check: Siemens AG
**Price:** ~230 € | **Market capitalization:** ~177 bn € | ** P/E 2026e:** ~19 to 20
#### 1. operating strength (figures for Q1 2026)
The latest figures for the start of fiscal year 2026 (published in February) show that Siemens is in an excellent operational position:
* **Growth:** Revenue increased by 4% to €19.1 billion (on a like-for-like basis even by 8%).
** **Profitability:** The profit margin in the Industrial Business is an outstanding **15.6%**. The *Digital Industries* and *Smart Infrastructure* divisions were the strongest drivers here.
** **Outlook:** Management has started the year so confidently that the forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has even been raised slightly following the strong quarter.
#### 2. Dividend & Valuation
** **Dividend:** The dividend for 2026 was raised to €5.35** per share. At the current share price, this corresponds to a yield of around **2.38%**.
**Valuation:** A P/E ratio of just under 20 is sporty for a traditional industrial company. However, it reflects the fact that the market is increasingly valuing Siemens as a technology and software company that is benefiting massively from the AI boom through automation and the equipping of data centers.
#### 3. Why is the share price currently falling?
If the figures are so good, why the setback?
At over € 270, the share price was simply very high and to some extent overvalued. The current fall of just under 10 % over the month is a healthy market consolidation. In addition, there have recently been market-wide "AI worries" that have temporarily put the entire hardware and industrial sector under pressure.
---
### 💡 Conclusion & plain language on the buy-back idea
**The company absolutely delivers, but should you buy more?
My advice for you: **Keep your fingers still**.
Here is the most important reason: You write yourself that Siemens is already your **biggest position**. If you buy into the weakness now, you will further inflate your "cluster risk". A healthy portfolio needs diversification. Even the best company in the world can get into difficult waters, for example due to weaker phases in individual markets such as China or Europe.
**The strategy:**
Don't use the fall in the share price as a justification for unbalancing your portfolio. Collect the solid dividend of €5.35, enjoy an excellently managed quality company in your portfolio and use your fresh capital to build up other sectors that you may still be missing.
Would you like me to pick out a few exciting investment ideas from other sectors that could make a useful addition to your portfolio?
When the largest position in your portfolio falls and your fingers are itching to buy more, you need a cool head. The share price has fallen from its 52-week high of just under € 276 to currently around € 230.
Here is an objective and precise analysis of the current situation at Siemens (as at March 2026) so that you can make an informed decision:
### 🏭 Fundamental check: Siemens AG
**Price:** ~230 € | **Market capitalization:** ~177 bn € | ** P/E 2026e:** ~19 to 20
#### 1. operating strength (figures for Q1 2026)
The latest figures for the start of fiscal year 2026 (published in February) show that Siemens is in an excellent operational position:
* **Growth:** Revenue increased by 4% to €19.1 billion (on a like-for-like basis even by 8%).
** **Profitability:** The profit margin in the Industrial Business is an outstanding **15.6%**. The *Digital Industries* and *Smart Infrastructure* divisions were the strongest drivers here.
** **Outlook:** Management has started the year so confidently that the forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has even been raised slightly following the strong quarter.
#### 2. Dividend & Valuation
** **Dividend:** The dividend for 2026 was raised to €5.35** per share. At the current share price, this corresponds to a yield of around **2.38%**.
**Valuation:** A P/E ratio of just under 20 is sporty for a traditional industrial company. However, it reflects the fact that the market is increasingly valuing Siemens as a technology and software company that is benefiting massively from the AI boom through automation and the equipping of data centers.
#### 3. Why is the share price currently falling?
If the figures are so good, why the setback?
At over € 270, the share price was simply very high and to some extent overvalued. The current fall of just under 10 % over the month is a healthy market consolidation. In addition, there have recently been market-wide "AI worries" that have temporarily put the entire hardware and industrial sector under pressure.
---
### 💡 Conclusion & plain language on the buy-back idea
**The company absolutely delivers, but should you buy more?
My advice for you: **Keep your fingers still**.
Here is the most important reason: You write yourself that Siemens is already your **biggest position**. If you buy into the weakness now, you will further inflate your "cluster risk". A healthy portfolio needs diversification. Even the best company in the world can get into difficult waters, for example due to weaker phases in individual markets such as China or Europe.
**The strategy:**
Don't use the fall in the share price as a justification for unbalancing your portfolio. Collect the solid dividend of €5.35, enjoy an excellently managed quality company in your portfolio and use your fresh capital to build up other sectors that you may still be missing.
Would you like me to pick out a few exciting investment ideas from other sectors that could make a useful addition to your portfolio?
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•@Raketentoni Thank you very much 👍
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•@Tenbagger2024 Thanks for the great contribution and the work. Added to the watchlist.
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