4D·

Mildef Group AB: MilDef exceeds market expectations in the first quarter

Ladies and gentlemen, I have already presented the share here several times. But unfortunately I am not invested.

MilDef announces today that the company's order intake, sales and profits for the first quarter of 2026 are estimated to be significantly above market expectations. This is due to an improved delivery situation and strong demand for the company's products and solutions.

The company's preliminary analysis shows that sales in the first quarter will amount to approximately SEK 700 million (340), which corresponds to growth of approximately 106 percent, while organic sales growth is estimated at approximately 55 percent. Operating profit (EBITA) is expected to be in the range of SEK 115-120 M (15.7), corresponding to an EBITA margin of approximately 17 percent (4.6).

The company's preliminary analysis shows that sales in the first quarter will amount to approximately SEK 700 M (340), which corresponds to growth of approximately 106 percent, while organic sales growth is estimated at approximately 55 percent. Operating profit (EBITA) is expected to be in the range of SEK 115-120 M (15.7), corresponding to an EBITA margin of approximately 17 percent (4.6).

8QA RT TG: 15,635 Euro 3,35 (27,22 %)

15 Comments

Dirty30@Dirty30

I got in on Monday. But I bought more by chance because my share screener spit out the company. My quarterly figures are 23.04.26. I'm also a bit surprised.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Dirty30 yes 23.04 is also in the report. The current ones are provisional. A few days ago I also suggested the share to someone who was looking for a European defense stock

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@Tenbagger2024 was already overrated before and is now even more overrated.😅

I'm honestly not so sure that the roda takeover was so strategically wise.🤷🏼‍♂️

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Investors are initially responding well today.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@Tenbagger2024 Sure, the figures and backlog are absolutely good.

The picture (from the mildef publication, right?) is charming, by the way, I suspect that a not inconsiderable proportion of the new customers and employees listed there come from the takeover.

Other things are more unpleasant, which of course are not included in the IR presentation when announcing preliminary figures. But let's wait for the final figures and take a look at the overall picture.😉

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Dirty30@Dirty30

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin PEG ratio 0.4 😏

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@Dirty30 lol, how did you come up with that?😂

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

1.4 on a forward basis, perhaps.🤷🏼‍♂️ And that is just within the bounds of what is justifiable. However, the takeover will not only have a positive impact financially and operationally.

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Dirty30@Dirty30

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin says the screener. But even if you calculate this manually, it makes sense. the forward P/E is 16-17, which means that even a generous calculation results in 0.5.

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Dirty30@Dirty30

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin yes exactly, it will have spit that out on forward.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@Dirty30 in the bull case yes. In the base case you will be above 1 in any case, with a tendency of between 1.4-1.7. Bull requires immediate synergies from the takeover, margin scaling to max. etc. I find it difficult to swallow the bull case, especially when it comes to margins, because the product mix with roda spoils the gross margin, because the trading business brings worse margins, and the FCF due to the takeover. I'm sticking with the base. And then, unfortunately, the value is not dirt cheap, but rather expensive, even if not exorbitantly expensive.

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