4D·

Reduce buy-in

Good morning everyone,

📉Have unfortunately $NVDA (-0.66%) shares a little too early at €112 and are now considering adding to them at the current price of €105 to lower the buy-in.

🏋🏻‍♂️$NVDA (-0.66%) and $GOOGL (+0.65%) are my only large share positions and of course I'm a bit annoyed to have bought in at this month's all-time high. So does it make sense to buy more in order to lower the buy-in?

Or should I keep my feet still for now and let current positions continue to run? 👀

23 Comments

Keep your feet still. You will certainly get them again for 100, or just below. The NASDAQ has failed to recapture the 200-day line for the time being. I therefore think we will hit the lows of the correction again.

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sakamo@sakamo

@Multibagger oh oh all right. Well then, we'll just have to wait and see and let the red numbers flow 😭

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Max@MaxtheCat

@Multibagger I agree. and then at 99€ you can add more.

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boz@boz

The Nvidia cosmos is something I can't really make sense of. Nvidia is refueling because China wants to enforce regulation regarding the power consumption of chips. This would affect Nvidia's H20 accelerator chips, which are also the most powerful chips that Nvidia is officially allowed to sell to China due to US export restrictions. DeepSeek V3, for example, was trained on several thousand H20 cards, at least according to official statements. H20 was actually also specially developed to be allowed to be sold to China despite the existing export restrictions. It is less powerful and consumes less power (400 watts) than an H100 (500-600 watts) or H200 (700 watts). The Blackwell successors are easily 1000 watts.
And despite these cut-down chips, China (apparently) only manages to develop DeepSeek, Qwen and other top-notch models with them. But now China wants to ban these very chips itself.

So either Nvidia will soon develop a special China version of the chip that is more energy-efficient or China will develop its AI models with ... pen and paper? Because the offerings from AMD (still) or even Intel (lol) are worse than those from Nvidia.

And apart from China: what will the 250 billion euros of funding from the EU AI initiatives for the development of European AI sovereignty that have been announced in recent months go towards? Certainly not in Logitech webcams. Several billion is going to Nvidia. And yet it's only going down.

Maybe set yourself gradual buy orders up to 101?

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sakamo@sakamo

@boz I think the Americans and Chinese are currently constantly trying to undercut each other in economic matters anyway, imposing tariffs or trumpeting messages that are intended to harm the other side's economy. As a result, the share prices of local companies are also volatile. What happens in the end is a good question. Nevertheless, I don't think that this can do lasting damage to a mega corporation like NVIDA.

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boz@boz

@sakamo I expect the current volatility to continue more or less throughout the year, so you and we will probably be asking ourselves the question of the "right" price for even longer - or you simply won't ask yourself the question because the bottom line is that it won't help anyway. Timing the market is only possible with an h200 server farm in the basement anyway. That brings us back to the topic.

If you want to stay in Nvidia in the longer term, I wouldn't worry too much tbh. If you can push the buy-in towards 105-106, or below 108, it certainly can't hurt. But depending on your investment horizon, this will probably be more or less relevant.

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sakamo@sakamo

@boz those are rosy prospects haha. Let's see, I'll be back in at under €100. Maybe the buy in can be corrected a little 👀

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boz@boz

@sakamo The reactions on the stock market are rarely understandable or even logical:

Exclusive: China's H3C warns of Nvidia AI chip shortage amid surging demand

https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/chinas-h3c-warns-nvidia-ai-chip-shortage-amid-surging-demand-2025-03-27/

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Max@MaxtheCat

In the long term, I continue to believe in Nvidia's huge potential, so it's more or less irrelevant whether you now have 7-10€/share less return.
Of course, it may still fall a little due to the various issues (tariffs, excessive AI costs, etc.), but in the long term I don't think you're doing anything wrong :)

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sakamo@sakamo

@MaxtheCat I also believe in the company and its relevance for the AI market. But of course it's still a shame to have caught the share so badly. However, I'm still fairly new to the whole thing and just need a few suggestions/advice from time to time

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Charmin@Charmin

Nvidia is always a good buy. If you don't want to throw everything in, then go for DCA. NVIDIA's current P/E ratio is 39, which is ridiculously cheap.

A clear buy. Whether at 105, 100, 90 or 120.

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sakamo@sakamo

@Charmin Thanks for the answer! Can you tell me what DCA means? 😅

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Charmin@Charmin

@sakamo Dollar cost averaging. This means that you buy the same value over and over again and thus obtain an average price over a long period of time.

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sakamo@sakamo

@Charmin all right, thank you!

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sakamo@sakamo

@Charmin all right, thank you!

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JaWin@FinanzielleFreiheit25

Wait and see I bought at 125 but will soon be back

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sakamo@sakamo

@FinanzielleFreiheit25 I'm interested in holding the company for the long term anyway, I'm just thinking about lowering the whole thing a little because of my buy-in

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Katharine@Derkatz

For me, NVIDIA is definitely still a buy, but only if it goes below €100 again.
At the moment, I would rather see the investment in the medium term.
NVIDIA's moat is getting narrower. China should not be underestimated. And the move to make life difficult for Nivida in China may not be a coincidence. If China doesn't already have something up its sleeve. China wants to become independent of Western technology. Major players such as Huawai, Alibaba, Baidu etc. are working on their own chips, not without success, and DeepSeek has already shown how quickly things can go wrong. I also think that Nvida is not pushing for the easing of trade restrictions with China for nothing. After all, Nvida makes 13% of its sales in China and if it doesn't want to be left behind in the future, it has to be better and faster than the Chinese. Otherwise, China will become self-sufficient and send Chinese chips to the world at dumping prices and destroy NVIDIA's margins.
wiped out:-(

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sakamo@sakamo

@Derkatz This is definitely a well-founded concern that you are expressing here. So it remains exciting to watch the whole thing. However, I will probably not add more than €100. I'm currently just under €140 in the red.

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Katharine@Derkatz

Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball either, but once the whole AI hype has cooled down, the semiconductor industry itself has strong fundamental growth factors and NVIDIA is well positioned, so you will certainly make up for the current book losses.

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sakamo@sakamo

@Derkatz I think so too! I'm quite optimistic about this and somewhere I'm also glad that I only got into the stock market game during this correction 😁

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Bavaria B.@BavarianLion

The stock market is "crazy" at the moment anyway! For example, I bought Alphabet at €155 and what happened? Today, the share price plummeted below 150 🤦‍♂️ But what the heck, I'm definitely not touching my cash reserves for now, if it goes down massively again, then there will be a few more purchases 😉

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KoenigsRasse@KoenigsRasse

Definitely 💯 that's a dream price 🥇
And if you can lower your buy in!
I say it from my perspective, AI is in its infancy.

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