7Mon·

Infrastructure made in Europe

$FER (+2.19%) has been laughing at me for a long time. They have turned Heathrow upside down and the move to relocate the headquarters to the Netherlands has since made it more attractive because the dividends are no longer subject to withholding tax in Spain. They are also a supposedly "safe bank" in Europe, as infrastructure cannot be easily doubled/replaced. While reviewing the watchlist, they have now come back into my focus. Unfortunately, they have become really expensive in the meantime.

How do you see the company? Is it a quality share that has its price, or is it now the best-known and therefore too expensive European infrastructure stock? The figures for the 2025 financial year will be published on February 25 and I'm thinking about buying in before then. Or would you rather wait for the figures to see if they confirm the current development, because that doesn't matter for this buy & forget stock?

Alternatively, I would also find $DG (+0.68%) interesting, but here the French source tax issue is frankly scaring me. Source tax issue puts me off to be honest.

10 Comments

Dividenden@Rente@userc7b02065b8a7407b

7Mon

I prefer Vinci. Broad and international positioning. Predictable cash flow thanks to concession income. Yes, the French withholding tax is inconvenient, but as my dividend income is above the tax-free amount, the foreign withholding tax paid is offset against the domestic tax and is returned via the tax return. So the German tax rate remains.

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Peter B.@Dedp00l

6Mon

@userc7b02065b8a7407b Thank for the info. Can you advise how much is the tax rate on dividends or profits? If you are holding Vinci I mean?

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Dividenden@Rente@userc7b02065b8a7407b

6Mon

@Dedp00l 15% for German citizens with the existing double taxation agreement. May be different for other residences and nationals. You'll have to ask ChatGPT what applies to you

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Peter B.@Dedp00l

6Mon

@userc7b02065b8a7407b 10x for the fast reply. I see the following info Key Aspects of French Dividend Taxation for Non-Residents
Standard Rates (2025): 12.8% for individuals, 25% for corporations.

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Valuise@Valuise

7Mon

exciting company! Thanks for the tip.

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savvy_investor_3426@savvy_investor_3426

@Valuise Hi, do you think this would be an interesting place to start right now?

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savvy_investor_3426@savvy_investor_3426

Hi, do you think this introduction is interesting right now?

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Keineui@Keineui

@savvy_investor_3426 Hi, yeah. Thanks for the heads-up. It seems to have come down nicely. I’ll have to look into why that happened. At first glance, this looks like a stock that could be a good buy, but it also seems like it might dip a little further. It’s certainly okay for an initial investment.

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Keineui@Keineui

@savvy_investor_3426 what does our dear @investron have an opinion about $FER ? I believe you are in Spain and should know them well?

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Kini - Dividend Strategy@investron

hi, thanks for the tag. You know @Keineui my opinion is biased toward dividend compounders the way I define them in my system. Ferrovial seems more like a growth stock: my model scores it 🔴 BELOW THRESHOLD. P/E ~41x, yield ~1.1%.

The moat is real: 407 ETR, Texas Managed Lanes, Heathrow. Irreplaceable assets with inflation-linked cash flows. And yes, the move to the Netherlands removed the Spanish withholding tax on the dividend.

The dividend is ~1% and capital flows back mostly through buybacks (~2.6% net buyback yield). It behaves like a growth stock, not an income compounder. Plus there was a 28.8% cut in 2020.

On buying before the results: my system doesn't time quarters. At 41x with no margin of safety, the numbers don't change the math. But again, all this is within my framework.

On Vinci (DG): my model sees something different. 🟢 OPTIMAL: Yield 4.23%, P/E 12.7x, dividend raised +6.3% to €5.05 for 2026. I've been building a position here myself for some time.

The French withholding tax is annoying, but two things soften it. First, the market is already pricing in a bigger discount than the tax friction (P/FFO ~6.5). Second, the EU's FASTER directive will eventually standardize withholding tax refunds across the bloc with a common digital tax residence certificate and fast-track relief. Worth knowing, but it only becomes applicable from January 2030, so I wouldn't let it drive a buy decision today.

The real Vinci risk isn't the withholding tax: it's the French concession expirations between 2032 and 2036. That's what I'd watch.

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