ZeissJessy · 2023-09-26T05:24:14.143504Z

MEDIZINISCHE GERÄTE $1SXP Ist Schott Pharma den Einstieg wert? Mit einem Emissionsvolumen von bis zu 987 Mio. Euro verspricht Schott Pharma der größte Börsengang des Jahres in Deutschland zu werden. Die schon jetzt per Erscheinen bei Brokern handelbare Aktie (29,00 Euro; DE000A3ENQ51) kann noch bis zum 27.9. in der Spanne von 24,50 bis 28,50 Euro gezeichnet werden. Der Spezialist für Aufbewahrungs- und Verabreichungssysteme für Medikamente ist in zwei sehr wachstumsstarken Bereichen (mRNA-Therapien und GLP-1-Medikamente) tätig. Selbst bei der erwarteten Zuteilung am oberen Ende der Spanne ist der Titel auch im Vergleich zur Konkurrenz attraktiv bewertet. Zunächst zu den Zahlen: Inklusive Greenshoe werden bis zu 34,6 Mio. der 150,6 Mio. Aktien aus dem Besitz der Mutter, der zur Carl Zeiss Stiftung gehörenden Schott AG in Mainz, an der Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse gelistet. Schott Pharma fließt dabei kein frisches Kapital. Bei voller Zuteilung beträgt der Freefloat 23%, wobei allerdings Qatar Holding zugesagt hat, für 200 Mio. Euro bis zu 4,99% der Papiere zu übernehmen. Insgesamt wird das Unternehmen beim IPO mit 3,69 Mrd. bis 4,29 Mrd. Euro bewertet – hier landet also ein Schwergewicht mit Ambitionen für eine Aufnahme in der DAX-Familie auf dem Parkett. Schott Pharma entwickelt und produziert mit seinen rd. 4 650 Mitarbeitern Glasspritzen, Polymerspritzen, Fläschchen und Ampullen für mehr als 1 800 Kunden weltweit. Jede Minute werden weltweit etwa 25 000 Injektionen mithilfe von Schott Pharma-Produkten verabreicht. Dem Markt für injizierbare Medikamente wird dabei bis 2026 ein Wachstum von jährlich über 8% zugebilligt. Die Mainzer selbst dürften in diesem Gj. (per 30.9.) auf einen Umsatz von rd. 890 Mio. Euro bei einem EBITDA von geschätzt 250 Mio. Euro kommen (Marge: 28%). Mittelfristig peilt das Unternehmen, das vor allem von strukturellen Wachstumstreibern wie dem Einsatz von Spezialverpackungen für mRNA-Therapien (Stichwort: Kühlung unter 100 Grad Celsius) und GLP-1-Medikamenten (Stichwort: Diabetes, Adipositas) profitiert, ein Umsatzwachstum im niedrigen 10%-Bereich bei einer EBITDA-Marge von über 30% an. Beides ist gut erreichbar und unterstellt ein Umsatzwachstum von 12% p. a. bei einem Gewinnwachstum von 19% p. a. bis 2024/25. Schott Pharma ist dabei weniger mit der etwas vielseitiger aufgestellten Gerresheimer, sondern eher mit reinen Medizin-Spezialisten wie der italienischen Stevanato oder der US-amerikanischen Becton Dickinson zu vergleichen. Nach Kalkulationen fällt dieser Vergleich vorteilhaft aus: Schott Pharma wird selbst am oberen Ende der Zeichnungsspanne nur in etwa mit dem 17-Fachen des künftig erwarteten EBITDA bewertet. Bei den Konkurrenten liegt diese Kennziffer mit dem 25-fachen EBITDA deutlich höher, wobei deren EPS-Wachstum deutlich niedriger (Stevanato: 13% p. a.; Becton Dickinson: 6% p. a.) veranschlagt wird. Ähnlich sieht es beim KGV aus: Bei Schott Pharma errechnen sich das 25-Fache des für 2023/24 erwarteten Gewinns, bei Becton Dickinson ist es das 42- und bei Stevanato das 40-Fache. Da die Bücher schon wenige Stunden nach Öffnung überzeichnet waren, gehen ich von einer Zuteilung am oberen Ende der Spanne aus. Wegen der Wachstumschancen der wegen einer nahezu nettoschuldenfreien Bilanz attraktiven Bewertung habe ich gezeichnet.

@ZeissJessy

1Yr·

MEDICAL DEVICES $1SXP (-0.47%)

Is Schott Pharma worth the entry?

With an issue volume of up to 987 million euros, Schott Pharma promises to be the largest IPO of the year in Germany. The share (29.00 euros; DE000A3ENQ51), which is already tradable at brokers as of its release, can still be subscribed to until September 27 in the range of 24.50 to 28.50 euros.

The specialist in drug storage and delivery systems is active in two very high-growth areas (mRNA therapies and GLP-1 drugs). Even with the expected allocation at the upper end of the range, the stock is attractively valued even compared to the competition.

First, on the numbers: Including the greenshoe, up to 34.6 million of the 150.6 million shares held by the parent company, Mainz-based Schott AG, which is part of the Carl Zeiss Foundation, will be listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Schott Pharma will not receive any fresh capital. At full allotment, the free float is 23%, although Qatar Holding has agreed to acquire up to 4.99% of the securities for 200 million euros. In total, the company is valued at 3.69 billion to 4.29 billion euros at the IPO - so this is a heavyweight with ambitions for inclusion in the DAX family landing on the trading floor.

Schott Pharma develops and produces glass syringes, polymer syringes, vials and ampoules for more than 1,800 customers worldwide. Every minute, around 25,000 injections are administered worldwide with the help of Schott Pharma products. The market for injectable drugs is expected to grow by more than 8% annually until 2026. The Mainz-based company itself is expected to generate sales of around EUR 890 million this year (as of September 30) with EBITDA of an estimated EUR 250 million (margin: 28%).

In the medium term, the company, which mainly benefits from structural growth drivers such as the use of special packaging for mRNA therapies (keyword: cooling below 100 degrees Celsius) and GLP-1 drugs (keyword: diabetes, obesity), is targeting sales growth in the low 10% range with an EBITDA margin of over 30%. Both are readily achievable, assuming sales growth of 12% p.a. with earnings growth of 19% p.a. through 2024/25.

Schott Pharma is less comparable with Gerresheimer, which is somewhat more diversified, but rather with pure medical specialists such as the Italian Stevanato or the US Becton Dickinson. According to calculations, this comparison turns out favorably: Schott Pharma is valued even at the upper end of the subscription range only at about 17 times the future expected EBITDA. In the case of the competitors, this ratio is significantly higher at 25 times EBITDA, with their EPS growth estimated to be significantly lower (Stevanato: 13% p. a.; Becton Dickinson: 6% p. a.). The situation is similar for the P/E ratio: Schott Pharma is calculated at 25 times expected earnings for 2023/24, Becton Dickinson at 42 times and Stevanato at 40 times. Since the books were oversubscribed just a few hours after opening, I assume an allocation at the upper end of the range.

I subscribed because of the growth opportunities of the attractive valuation due to a nearly net debt-free balance sheet.

10 Comments

Moritz@leveragegrinding

1Yr

@Lorena maybe?

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Lorena@Lorena

1Yr

@leveragegrinding yes nice, I'll take a look

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Das Portfoliopferd@Portfoliopferd

1Yr

Have extra because of the post not invested, now the 8% went up. Can I sue you for investment advice? No kidding, would not have invested there either. :D

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N@Khlmysee

1Yr

Where and how can I/you draw in advance? Have never done anything like this before. 😊

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Kathrin B.@FrauB

1Yr

@Kohlmeyse at Consorsbank this is still possible until 27.9. 11:15 a.m.

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N@Khlmysee

1Yr

@FrauB have just seen, apparently also flatex. Trading place long & black. 👍

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Dividende > Zinsen@GoDividend

1Yr

@Kohlmeyse always look: The - officially announced by Schott Pharma - underwriters in the Schott IPO are, according to the announcement, as follows: BNP Paribas, BofA Securities and Deutsche Bank (Joint Global Coordinators) as well as Citigroup and Jefferies (Joint Bookrunners) and Commerzbank and LBBW (Co-Lead Managers). https://depotstudent.de/schott-pharma-aktie-zeichnen/

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N@Khlmysee

1Yr

@GoDividend so at flatex and via the trading place lang & schwarz it also works.

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Dividende > Zinsen@GoDividend

1Yr

@Kohlmeyse so closing time ... Has left me no peace the topic... So mMn. Is flat ex not an official syndicate bank which is why you should read this: You can find the official banks on the homepage https://www.schott-pharma.com/investor-relations/ FBS Mobile: Gray market What is a gray market? A gray market (or gray market) is an unregulated and unofficial market where a trader can buy or sell securities that are not currently available on the official markets. This is usually the case when a company's shares have not yet been listed on the stock exchange as part of an initial public offering (IPO). Another scenario is when a stock or other asset has been suspended from official trading. Gray market explained In the gray market, securities are always traded over-the-counter (OTC). This means that they are not offered by an exchange, but only by brokers or other trading providers. A good example of this is the purchase of shares even before they are issued by a company as part of an IPO. These are not real shares, but something like unofficial forward transactions on these shares. In other words, a trader evaluates a company and places a bid if the price of its IPO shares will be overvalued or undervalued. Gray market premium The gray market premium (GMP) is the price at which a stock trades on the gray market. It is based on market sentiment. When demand is high and supply is low, the GMP is high. If demand is low and supply is high, the premium is low. Here is an example: suppose the issue price of stock X is $100 and the GMP is $200. This means that traders are willing to buy stock X for $300 ($100 + $200). Profits and losses now depend on whether a stock is quoted at the GMP price or not. If the closing price of the stock on the first trading day is higher than the pre-IPO price, the trader makes a profit. If the price is low after the IPO, the trader makes a loss. Gray Market vs. Black Market Since the gray market is unofficial, it is not regulated by third-party entities such as government agencies. Moreover, there is no official platform, and all trading takes place among a limited group of people. All trades are based on mutual trust. Nevertheless, the gray market is completely legal, unlike the black market, which operates outside the law. Why trade on the gray market The main advantage of gray market trading is that you can buy stocks before they are listed on an exchange. Then, if the IPO is successful, you make a profit. Another point is that you can trade all those securities that are suspended from trading on the official markets.

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N@Khlmysee

1Yr

@ZeissJessy What price did you get? I'm thinking of going in at €28.20.

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