1Wk·

Investing in Aspen Aerogels?

I came across $ASPN and am considering investing. What do you think?


Chat-GPT gives the following feedback:


Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) - industry cash flows, EV growth & IP moat: underrated multi-bagger candidate


Aspen Aerogels is a US specialty materials company with patented aerogel technology. The stock combines a cash-rich industrial business with a scalable EV growth driver, supported by strong IP protection, OEM partnerships and institutional tailwinds.



🔧 Business areas & production


1. energy & industrial insulation (cash foundation)

- Products: Cryogel®️, Pyrogel®️, Spaceloft®️

- Applications: LNG, refinery, petrochemical, hydrogen infrastructure

- Customers: Exxon, Shell, Aramco, BASF

- Advantage: Retrofit cycles + high margins >30 %


2. EV Thermal Barriers (growth rocket)

- Product: PyroThin®️ Cell-to-cell barrier against thermal runaway

- OEM customers: GM, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, Volvo Trucks

- Tailwind: UN GTR 20 / EU Battery Regulation → Safety component becomes mandatory


3rd production

- Rhode Island (USA): internal aerogel core production

- EMF in China: external final production of both divisions (asset-light, global scaling)



🛡 Competitive advantage & IP moat


- >750 worldwide patents

- Litigation won in 2017 (ITC USA), 2019 (Germany), 2024/25 (AMA settlement Italy)

- Result: Deterrence of low-cost copies, pricing power



🏆 Awards & OEM recognition


- Automotive News PACE Award

- GM Innovation Partnership Award

- GM Overdrive Award (Supplier of the Year)



📊 Key figures FY 2024 / Q2 2025


- Turnover: USD 452 million (+90%)

- Gross margin: 32%

- Adjusted EBITDA Q2: USD 9.7 million (+98% QoQ)

- Cash position: ~168 m USD

- Analyst price target: USD 18-22 (current price ~USD 7)



📈 Investor structure (03/2025)


- Spring Creek Capital: approx. 14.9% (strong build-up since 2022)

- BlackRock: approx. 6.0%

- Vanguard: approx. 5.3%

- Oaktop Capital: approx. 5.4 %

- George Kaiser Foundation: approx. 3.8 %

- Total institutional ownership: >90% (2021: ~79%)



Bullish investment case

1. IP-protected technology advantage

2. dual business approach → stability + EV upside

3. asset-light scaling via EMF

4. OEM awards & customer traction

5. smart money ownership + 150 % analyst upside



⚠️ Risks


- Volatile call-offs (EV OEMs, energy projects)

- Negative free cash flow (expansion)

- Small-cap fluctuations → for investors willing to take risks



Conclusion


Aspen Aerogels is a rare hybrid play of defensive industrial business and strategic EV growth lever. With protected IP moat, strong partners and growing institutional confidence, it creates an exciting long-term multi-bagger case for the patient.



📚 Sources


- Aspen IR & SEC Filings (10-K, Q2 2025): https://ir.aerogel.com

- Investing.com (Ownership)

- SimplyWall.St

- MarketBeat Analyst Targets

- IDTechEx / Fortune Business Insights (Aerogel market)

- ITC Patent Case 2017 / Germany 2019 / AMA Comparison 2024 - 25

- Automotive News PACE & GM Awards

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4 Comments

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Thanks for the introduction, it reads well. I'll look into it and put it on my watchlist. The question is why it has lost 80% of its share price in the last 12 months if it has such good figures.
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@Multibagger That's a good question. I would also be interested
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@Lemonhead Well, let me help you a little.

https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/aspen-aerogels-stock-drops-despite-q4-2024-earnings-beat/ch5XDnERHE
The outlook for the first quarter was probably more than poor. Hence at least the decline this year.
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@Multibagger Thank you for the article. It's understandable when a promised plant is canceled. If the EV sector continues to develop, I see opportunities here in the long term. However, I think this is more likely to happen in the long term and you should be prepared for some price jumps. I think the technology is definitely very interesting.
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