8H·

Is luxury going down the drain?

My fingers are itching and I would like to $MC (-1.4%) buy more. But somehow I can't see a bottom at the moment. Does anyone have a crystal ball? We have almost reached the tops from the Corona low, the low was €289. Uncertainty and consumer restraint today vs. corona impact? Is that somehow comparable?


P/E ratio, KCV, P/B ratio all at Corona level or below and now 2.9% div yield.


The current decline of LVMH is already different from the pandemic-related crash. While 2020 was a sudden external shock, the current situation is more the result of a gradual weakening of demand and increased uncertainty. In my view, however, LVMH's fundamental strengths remain intact.


The question is when there will be a return to positive global consumer sentiment and stabilization, especially in the Chinese market.


So, buy or wait?

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15 Comments

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$MC is no longer real luxury, real luxury is $RMS and $BC that's why they're doing well. LVMH is mainstream upper class consumption but not "rich" consumption, you know?
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@Investingyoung is like Mercedes Benz (LVMH) vs Ferrari or Bugatti (HRMs and BC)
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@Investingyoung It always depends on how you look at it, I estimate that 70% of people consider a Mercedes to be a luxury ;-)
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@Investingyoung Really? The L doesn't stand for luxury?
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I'm not so familiar with the details, but from a global perspective I would hold off buying until a clear, medium-term bottom has formed (1/2 year no falling prices or so).

The consumption figures in China, the USA and the EU do not look good. Wars have to be financed. State budgets need to be restructured. The fat years are over for now. If the stock markets were to tumble now, luxury would be the first thing to be cut. 🤷
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I would simply start with a savings plan
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Runs on a savings plan and is a solid dividend payer. Organic growth is not strong at the moment, but LVMH is already an absolute big player.
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We saw the first signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy in mid/late 2024. I think we could enter an initial recovery phase at the end of 2025. Apart from that, the consumer mood in some industrialized countries (e.g. usa and Germany) is still rather poor.
I have placed a buy order at € 440. I am already invested
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Hold and let the savings plan continue. The bottom is near. 🫡
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@Angstundbange also my feeling ☝🏼
I'll hold on for now, but unfortunately everything depends on a few people in the world...
And I hope that the world will slowly come to its senses and return to the path of peace and prosperity...
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Unfortunately I borrowed the glass ball, it's a bit late for the morning urine and I don't have any coffee grounds because I drink tea... 🤷‍♂️
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In my view, it's definitely worth buying. This is due to the weakness in China, which is sure to recover soon. I am also in the red but remain confident for the future. In the long term. Ultimately, it's an ETF in the luxury segment 😝
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