3Wk·

High oil price

As Meister @Epi already said - that looks like an exaggeration and is not really the point of the strategy. The money will go on the high side and I'll jump back in when the fuss about Iran has died down a bit.

09.03

LUS

LUS BSK IXZT OE

Sold x65 at €242.83

€15,783.95

50.82%

15 Comments

Aktienfox@Aktienfox

3Wk

Timing GTAA is much more difficult. If Oil's momentum decreases a bit, it would be replaced after Dual Momentum, and you profit on the next momentum.

Of course it acts as an exaggeration, but you may be trading on emotion, and that is harmful :). EPI has reduced the leverage somewhat and will probably change it again to 1.5x if things continue like this.

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Cekay@CMustermann

3Wk

@Aktienfox that's correct and I'm aware of the risk :) let's see what happens. I assume that after the release of the strategic oil reserves the oil price will fall and Trump is looking for a deal so that he can once again present himself as a great driver of peace.

The 50% profit-taking can't hurt.

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erbsinator@erbsinator

3Wk

@Aktienfox I did exactly the same thing this morning and sold the 3xGTAA completely. It was driven by emotion, probably in part.
But it is also a fact that although @Epi has already adjusted the leverage and has not remained true to its model - which I support 100% in this situation - oil currently makes up 45% of the portfolio again.

Was that all so clever of me? Time will tell.

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Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH

2Wk

@CMustermann When will you get back in? Or not at all?

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Epi@Epi

3Wk

Momentum can run further than you think. Your sale is psychologically understandable.

However, you are triggering a tax case, reducing your investable capital and thus your compound interest effect. At 28%KES, you would have to pay approx. 1600€ in taxes. That's around 10% of the investment. In other words, you are effectively speculating on a correction of more than -10% at 3xGTAA. Only then would you be at +-0 compared to B&H.

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Marcelo@Marcelo-80

3Wk

All I can say is that I've been wanting to get in for 2 months and have never found the right time. Either it's going well and I think I have to wait and see, or it drops briefly and I want to keep waiting and miss the entry before it rises again.....echt schwierig

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Epi@Epi

3Wk

@Marcelo-80 Yes, 3xGTAA can hardly be timed. Everyone reports that. 🤷

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Marcelo@Marcelo-80

3Wk

@Epi I can absolutely confirm this

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Mi11@Migu11

3Wk

@Epi I'm not allowed to tell my wife about it, I've been in with a bigger position since the beginning of Feb and when she sees the plus she wants to fly business to New Zealand or something :D

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Epi@Epi

3Wk

@Migu11 In good times and bad, my dear!
The challenge of the good times is often underestimated. 😁

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HyperX@AxoWallStreet

3Wk

@Epi Your wikifolio almost tops the volatility of BTC 😅😂

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Mi11@Migu11

3Wk

@Epi ok we ride our bikes :-P

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Epi@Epi

3Wk

@Migu11 To New Zealand? 😲

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Uwe@SchlaubiSchlumpf

3Wk

@Epi You could see it that way if you think of the Efficient Market Theory (which is admittedly quite far away from GTAA here, but transfer could still help):

After momentum increases, the risk that momentum will reverse increases. But what happens when risks increase? There are bigger premiums if they don't materialize. So timing would be secondary.

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Epi@Epi

3Wk

@SchlaubiSchlumpf Interesting thought, thank you! 🙏

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