Hennington Research · 2024-03-22T15:28:55.941406Z

Derzeit sind all eyes on Öl ($IOIL00 ), da die Preise für zukünftige Öllieferungen niedriger sind als der aktuelle Spot-Preis, was man Backwardation nennt. Normalerweise bedeutet eine Backwardation, dass die Händler estimaten, dass die Preise in der Zukunft fallen werden, aber aktuell ist es anders, da Trader davon ausgehen, dass die Ölvorräte im Laufe des Jahres 2024 weiter sinken werden und der Preis deshalb steigen wird. Einer der Gründe ist die Verlängerung der Produktionskürzungen durch die OPEC. Saudi-Arabien etc. haben beschlossen, ihre Ölproduktion zu reduzieren, um die Preise zu stabilisieren. Dies hat dazu geführt, dass die Händler glauben, dass die Ölvorräte in Zukunft knapper werden könnten. [HQ, Wien] Dazu kommt noch ein Schifffahrtsabkommen zwischen China und Russland mit den Huthi-Rebellen im Jemen. Aktuell stören Huthi-Rebellen wichtige Seewege, durch die viel Öl transportiert wird. Sprich der geopolitische Faktor wird langfristig auch noch relevant bleiben. Rund 12% des globalen Öls wird durch das Rote Meer transportiert.

@HennRes

10Mon·

All eyes are currently on oil ($IOIL00 (-0.59%) ), as the prices for future oil supplies are lower than the current spot price, which is called backwardation. Normally, backwardation means that traders estimate that prices will fall in the future, but currently it is different, as traders expect oil inventories to fall in the course of the year 2024 will continue to fall and the price will therefore rise.

One of the reasons is the extension of the production cuts by the OPEC. Saudi Arabia etc. have decided to reduce their oil production in order to stabilize prices. This has led traders to believe that oil supplies could become scarcer in the future.

[HQ, Vienna]

In addition, there is a shipping agreement between China and Russia with the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Houthi rebels are currently disrupting important sea routes through which a lot of oil is transported. In other words, the geopolitical factor will remain relevant in the long term. Around 12% of the global oil is transported through the Red Sea.

8 Comments

Moritz@leveragegrinding

10Mon

This collusion of the Huthi rebels with China and Russia is really wild. I expect in the next few months that the US will increase the pressure on Israel to end the war in Gaza, not only because of the rebels, but also because of them.

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Soprano@Soprano

10Mon

@leveragegrinding How are they supposed to end this? Should they go to Hamas and ask "Ham mas soon?"

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

9Mon

@Soprano The USA has so much military and political power, Israel East is so far away from Russia and all counter-powers that if the USA exerts pressure on Israel, sooner or later it will adopt a defensive stance. There is enough domestic political pressure there.

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Soprano@Soprano

9Mon

@leveragegrinding So you think the US will force Israel to surrender unconditionally? Okay, I don't doubt that they could. But the question is why should they? That would massively offend the Israelis and bring the USA no advantages at all. #Wunschdenken

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

9Mon

@Soprano so there's nothing between supporting the war and unconditional surrender? This way of thinking explains your name

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

9Mon

@Soprano https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/biden-netanyahu-zivilisten-104.html
What the USA wants usually happens.

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Soprano@Soprano

9Mon

@leveragegrinding But this is not the "end the war in the Gaza Strip" you announced