8H·

A small reallocation to Vonovia 👍🏼

Today I made a small adjustment to my portfolio by $VNA (-2.06%) . I had to take advantage of the price drop in response to the earnings forecast revision.

However, since I’m currently short on available capital, I had to sell a portion of my McDonald’s holdings. I bought my most recent positions at around 208 euros, so I made just under 10% in a few weeks! That’s not too bad... 😊

29.10

McDonald's

Sold x16 at €225.30

€3,604.80

2.13%

11 Comments

Chris@Multibagger

I know a lot of people who don't go to McDonald's anymore because they don't serve the MC Rib anymore. So it was the right decision.

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Part_Time_Joe@Part_Time_Joe

@Multibagger I still have half the shares... just in case they decide to bring back the MC Rib! 😉

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Mo@Mo28

I'm curious to see what happens—there's already been a lot of negative news affecting the stock price, but I just can't imagine how it's going to rebound anytime soon. It's on my watchlist for now.

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Part_Time_Joe@Part_Time_Joe

@Mo28 I have time! Even if it takes four years for the stock to get back to 30, that's okay. That's still more than 20% a year, and that would put me right on Buffett's heels 😉

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Smudo@Smudeo

@Part_Time_Joe Well, it could also go in that direction—property values falling or remaining flat.
Financing issues due to high interest rates on loans.
Dividends suspended or capped.
No return for you in 4–5 years.
Honestly, the risk is way too high!

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Part_Time_Joe@Part_Time_Joe

@Smudeo There's never a guarantee. But the valuation is fundamentally so low that a fair amount of risk is already priced in. But we'll see 😊

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Clown I.@alex1973

@Part_Time_Joe I really wish you the best of luck with that. But Buffet didn't just buy cheap—he only bought when the stock was undervalued but the company was sound.

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Part_Time_Joe@Part_Time_Joe

@alex1973 That’s right! Just because something seems cheap doesn’t always mean it actually is. But Vonovia’s business model works—the company is profitable, and the housing shortage isn’t going to go away anytime soon.

What has been weighing on the stock price (and continues to do so) are financing costs, specifically interest rates. The market expects them to remain at this level for a long time or even rise further. I actually don’t believe that—after all, I’m heavily overweight in precious metals. My assessment of the interest rate situation:

Interest rates will fall again in the medium term. Why? The sovereign debt crisis is the main reason, along with high financing needs in the AI sector. People would rather accept higher inflation than risk the stability of the financial markets and the EU.

Of course, this is just my interpretation of the situation. I could be completely off the mark. Time will tell 😊

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FairValue@FairValue

Just yesterday you posted an article saying that, in your opinion, retail investors can’t beat the market by picking supposedly undervalued stocks.
Today you bought Vonovia.
Your portfolio’s IRR is negative this year.
What caused that?

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Part_Time_Joe@Part_Time_Joe

@FairValue What are you trying to say? If you follow my posts, you should know that...

a) I really enjoy trading individual stocks, and that’s valuable to me, and...

b) for that very reason, I want to shift my portfolio to ETFs over the medium term and only keep 1/3 of the value in individual stocks.

If you want to know why my portfolio has underperformed YTD, take a look at the price of gold. You can’t see it in the data (because I only started using GetQin last year), but I initially bought K92 at 30 cents. Of the 500k, about 460k is profit. The same goes for Equinox. I’ve had that since Fiore Gold—also a profit of several hundred percent. Yes, that was essentially luck.

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Keineui@Keineui

Mutig!

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