Hello everyone,
As some of you may have noticed, I invested in Almonty a few weeks ago. With today’s post, I’d like to give you a quick update.
Are you generally interested in updates on my investments?
Feel free to let me know in the comments.
At Almonty Industries , the real test is beginning. For years, the stock market story of this tungsten specialist was driven primarily by the prospects of the Sangdong Mine in South Korea. Now, that potential needs to translate into cash flow. Operations are going well. In the second quarter, revenue jumped 498% year-over-year to CAD 43.0 million. Earnings from the mining business improved from a loss of 0.9 million CAD to a profit of 26.1 million CAD, and adjusted EBITDA turned from a loss of 4.8 million CAD to a profit of 17.6 million CAD. The gross margin reached 60.7%. This is primarily due to the massive rise in the price of tungsten, from which the producing Panasqueira mine in Portugal benefits.
However, the quarterly profit of CAD 181.8 million should not yet be extrapolated. Approximately CAD 173.1 million was attributable to non-cash valuation gains from derivatives and warrants. More important for future performance is that CAD 31.6 million flowed in from ongoing operations in the first half of the year, compared to a outflow of CAD 14.9 million a year earlier. Almonty is thus, for the first time, more than just a bet on the future.
However, the real driver of growth remains South Korea. In Sangdong, the first phase of expansion is currently being commissioned. At full capacity, the plant is expected to produce approximately 640,000 metric tons of ore per year. An approved second phase could increase capacity to up to 1.2 million metric tons . The project ranks among the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside of China. Tungsten is used in carbide tools, electronics, aviation, and defense. China controls the lion’s share of production and has restricted exports of select tungsten products. For Western buyers, security of supply is therefore becoming increasingly important.
The demand for Sangdong’s production is evident in the purchase agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders , part of the Plansee Group, which was expanded in July. The term was extended by six years, the volume increased by 40%, and the pricing formula improved by approximately 6.3%. This reduces marketing risk and provides Almonty with good revenue visibility. The second phase of expansion is not included—additional volumes remain freely marketable.
Following the placement of an oversubscribed convertible bond worth $800 million , the company had CAD 1.23 billion in cash. In the latest video, “Almonty Industries: The $800 Million Bet on Tungsten,” CEO Lewis Black how the new financial flexibility will be utilized. In addition to the ramp-up and expansion of Sangdong, the focus is on the expansion of the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, the Gentung project in Montana, and potential additional strategic assets. At the same time, Black puts the $800 million convertible bond and the geopolitical race for a tungsten supply independent of China into perspective.
Management sent a confident signal in mid-August. Through August 2029, up to 14.4 million treasury shares—just under 5% of the share capital—may be repurchased for a maximum of $300 million. However, the program is an authorization, not a mandatory purchase. The scope depends on the stock price, liquidity, and capital requirements.
Almonty is at an operational turning point. If the ramp-up at Sangdong is successful, revenue and earnings are likely to reach new heights. All in all, the stock remains a speculative hot stock —but its future price performance is now underpinned by operational progress, positive cash flow, and a well-stocked cash reserve. If the core business gains sustainable momentum with the ramp-up of Sangdong, Almonty’s stock still has significant upside potential for further price gains.
