5Mon·

Oil prices

$BRNT (+0.25%) and $CRUD (-0.37%) 🤔. Have we already reached the top or are we still a long way off? Please give us your assessment......

7 Comments

D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

5Mon

🚀🚀🚀

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

5Mon

@Crash-Propheteus What does the 🔮 say?

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

5Mon

@Tenbagger2024 Full throttle, it's still going uphill!

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Frank@schlimmschlimm

5Mon

Well, it depends on whether things calm down there now, a real taco or whether it escalates further I guess. Who can hold out longer? How does a country with 48% inflation, a currency that has lost 99% of its value within a decade and daily power cuts keep its war machine running? Iran's economic collapse did not begin on February 28, 2026.

When the US and Israel launched their first attacks, the country was already in what the IMF and World Bank had independently described as the worst economic period in its modern history.

GDP had fallen from around $600 billion in 2010 to an estimated $356 billion by 2025. Importantly: Iran has not closed the straits to itself. Its oil continues to flow through these waters to China. This calculation works as long as the shadow oil revenues continue to flow.

Washington has tried to tighten enforcement - through secondary sanctions against Chinese actors, tanker seizures as part of Operation Southern Spear and pressure on flag registers and insurers.

Tanker tracking data shows Chinese imports of Iranian crude averaging around 1.38 million barrels per day in 2025, falling slightly to around 1.13-1.20 million barrels per day in January and February 2026.

The decline is small but significant - it shows pressure at the edges, although the lifeline remains largely intact. For investors analyzing energy markets, government bonds in the Gulf or emerging market risks, one variable will determine the future course of events: whether the US succeeds in decisively disrupting the China-Iran oil route.

If it succeeds, the IRGC's parallel economy will begin to break down, which would accelerate either a collapse of the regime or a negotiated way out.

If it does not succeed, Iran can maintain its Hormuz pressure campaign for months, burdening European energy markets through the summer replenishment season and further complicating the ECB's already delicate course.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled in mid-March 2026 that Washington could consider easing sanctions on some Iranian oil to alleviate global energy price pressures.

This statement alone shows that the leverage works in both directions.

Iran's strength lies not in military superiority, but in its willingness to burn economically and politically alongside its adversaries. The only question is who will give in first - and at what cost. A real rise depends on two factors: Escalation or blockade of the Strait of Hormuz → Supply shortage → Price could rise quickly. US and OPEC+ decisions + inventories → can give direction in the short term.

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Stefan@Asgard19

5Mon

Probably not

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Artiskon@Artiskon

5Mon

We'll continue at the weekend. Let the troops land first :)

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

5Mon

That will probably be really 'nice'. I think prices will continue to rise, as the strait will remain closed for the time being.

The cost of refueling minivans and SUVs in the US will go up, as will the price for consumers in the rest of the world.

My guess is that the Iranians are used to a lot of suffering and also have a regime that is relatively indifferent to its own population in the battle with the USA. I therefore don't see a quick solution to the conflict. Iran doesn't want any 'deals' - they want to do maximum damage to the hated West. The killing of their religious leader has of course added fuel to the fire.

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