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Bitcoin at a crossroads: My analysis of scenario A & B (3-6 month horizon)


Hey everyone,


Here is my latest analysis of the Bitcoin chart. I have deliberately simplified it so that both newcomers and the more experienced among you can take something away from it.


First of all, sorry for the delay. I am currently struggling with health challenges and an upcoming operation, which is why I am dependent on strong medication in order to be able to concentrate on my work at all. Nevertheless, it was important to me to get this ready for you.


💡 My wish & "payment"

I don't ask for money for my analysis. But I do have one request: If you make a profit from my strategy, please donate 10% of the net profit to those in need (starving people or people in war zones). Think of it as my payment.


⚠️ To the content creators & larger accounts

Unfortunately, I have often had my analyses copied and passed off as my own. Please be fair: If you share my graphics or thoughts, mention me or at least include the 10% donation call in your post. Honor among traders!


Use this information from me as a guide to learn your own lessons and make good profits Inshallah.


The analysis: The rules of the game are changing

To clear up any ambiguities and answer a few questions I have been asked: Even if the drawing in the chart looks visually short - it may take another 3 to 6 months for all this to materialize. I currently assume that we will know more about scenario B in this time frame.

My analyses are based on cycle theory and the combination of several strategies.

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The two scenarios at a glance:

📊 Scenario A (The classic altcoin season): Bitcoin takes a break, but the rest of the crypto market explodes. In short, this means that everything except Bitcoin rises extremely sharply.


📈 Scenario B (BTC leads): Almost the entire crypto market rises, but Bitcoin rises the most. The rest follows suit, but not as explosively as in scenario A.


The crossroads: institutional vs. cycles

This is currently the most accurate information you can give, unless you are an insider at large institutions who know more. We are at a crucial crossroads:

IsBitcoin following its cycles like it used to, or is the cycle changing?


Scenario A: The cycle remains the same 60% probability


Scenario B: The cycle changes due to

massive institutional interest, ETFs, awareness, banks and countries 40% probability


In the past, when the chart was more predictable, it was easier to assess. At the moment, we really have to look: Are the rules of the game staying the same, or are they changing due to the numerous new big players?


The market has become even more uncertain, but it is precisely this risk that increases the opportunity for greater profits. This is absolutely not for the faint-hearted. Anyone who is already trembling with a stake of €100 has lost nothing here.


The chance of big winnings is there, but the risk must be taken into account!


Don't let your fears win.


LG Ayman


#bitcon
#crypto
#analyse
#altcoin
#krypto
#trading
#investing
#etfs
#altcoinseason

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70 Comments

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Sheath gone? Oh you poor thing
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@Smudeo your comment will look pretty funny in 6 months time
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@Pacco93 because there is a high probability that one of the two variants will occur
@aaabakay You mean the price can fall and the price can rise. Are you a genie?
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@Lololol either it rains tomorrow or it doesn't 🔮
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@Pacco93 @Lololol funny that you don't realize what you can get out of it it tells me that I better not waste much time with you there are just people you can throw money in your face and then ask where the money is so which ones are you 😂 take it easy just invest in stocks where everyone puts money in you can't go wrong
@aaabakay Don't worry kid, I'm invested in Bitcoin. But if you're that smart, then you should already be a millionaire 😂
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@Pacco93 did you also buy at 17.000€? I take it as a compliment that you think I'm clever, because nowhere did I claim to be ☺️ don't worry, no matter how you comment, I wish you continued success and good luck.
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BTC will now have a tough time ahead in the 60k-70k range there will be many stop-losses.
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@Smudeo🤣🤣🤣🤣 very funny
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Complete nonsense. We are in a bear market year and Bitcoin usually corrects at least 70% from the high. Don't be fooled by that...alt-season is a long way off
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@stock_strategist_uaggd your comment will look funny in the next 6 months. But yes if BTC goes up variant B the altcoin season is still a bit away
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Show me a phase in which Bitcoin falls sharply and altcoins rise. Haha. But that hasn't happened yet...and it never will
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@stock_strategist_uaggd Yep, that's kind of logical. If the crypto sentiment is positive but BTC has already been pumped, the altcoins will follow.
We don't know what drugs he's taking 😅
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@stock_strategist_uaggd I realize
you seem to know very little about
about the market, but I would like to explain
briefly for beginners: When the market
market dominance of BTC falls
the altcoin season begins or ? Have a look
on the trends it is called the altcoin
season when the altcoins are more dominant
and when has an altcoin season
always started? Exactly at the
point where people lost interest in
BTC and invested in altcoins
invested in altcoins
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@stock_strategist_uaggd I'm not saying that it will rise immediately when BTC falls, the panic will catch on at some point and then the altcoins will come along
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@aaabakay Market dominance ≠ price. Look for work
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Good luck then. Well... take another look at what exactly BTC dominance means. Example: Bitcoin loses 10%, altcoins then of course even more = dominance goes up.

If, as indicated in your chart, BTC falls to 30k usd, we see dominance at over 70%. Bet?
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@Scgian Market dominance does not equal price, better delete your comment 😂
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@stock_strategist_uaggd hey I would like to give you the opportunity to explain this again in more detail yourself - maybe you will notice the mistake or maybe I just misunderstood you. Good luck to you too
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What exactly do you mean? What error?
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Bitcoin dominance goes up if either btc goes up and alts (all together) go down OR Bitcoin goes down and altcoins go up significantly. Bitcoin dominance on the rise since 2022. This will continue for the time being
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Bitcoin dominance has nothing at all to do with the price of Bitcoin for the time being
View all 30 further answers
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I see it a little differently. We have already had the altcoin run, even if it was somewhat weaker than usual. Think back to October last year. Now we are in crypto winter. Have we already seen the low? I suspect not, but it's quite possible that we'll now level off at around 60-70k$ before things start to pick up again at some point...
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@Hotte1909 if we look at the raw data, the low is 30,000€ - 50,000€. i can't imagine that what we had there was already the altcoin season, especially the market dominance didn't fit in, but let's see what the future will say about it i'm glad to finally read a sensible comment like yours here
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@Hotte1909 And importantly, the timing would fit much better in the near future than the small altcoin peak we had in terms of structure and timing
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@aaabakay as you also wrote, a lot of cash has ended up in btc due to institutions (mstr/metaplanet etc pp), which could also have shifted the market dominance.
I still have a larger order at around 55k$, which would be my dream point to top up to 1 satoshi, but I'm currently also buying in small tranches from time to time. It's difficult to hit the exact low anyway and I think it's currently a pretty good buy overall.
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@Hotte1909 Good point, but one thing must not be forgotten: Just as institutional money has poured into BTC, altcoin projects have matured massively. We now have a whole new infrastructure and projects with real utility in the space.

It has always been like this in the past: the 'big players let Bitcoin sink or move sideways in a controlled manner at some point in order to rotate liquidity into altcoins and take the next big multipliers with them. Institutions want returns and these are often higher with mid caps than with a saturated BTC. The small peak in October was only a harbinger from the perspective of market structure and the time window. In my opinion, the actual setup for the big rotation is only now really building up. Let's see what the data says in a few months' time!
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So you think it will either go?
A. Up
B. Down


I'll just keep on doing what I was doing then.
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@di_marcello If that's all you've read, I can't help you, good luck
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Towards the end, the tone becomes a little more conciliatory again :)

You don't have to agree, you can even be right, but insults don't get anyone anywhere.

Calm down, stay objective and good luck with your investments :)
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@fbi191 You're absolutely right, objectivity should always come first. Personally, I'm not forcing anyone to share my analysis - it's just my view of the market structure. I've been insulted here several times, but unfortunately that's part and parcel of pointing out clear scenarios and standing out from the crowd. I prefer to stick to the facts and wish everyone here maximum success, regardless of their point of view
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@gloinvest Thanks for the info. I think the instruction leaflet said something about extreme calmness in dealing with people who can't accept an analysis if it goes against their own expectations. That would explain why I remain so cool despite your stupid statement.
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