Key figure
2025
2024
Δ
Revenue $19.3 bn $17.6 bn +10%
Operating cash flow $5.8 bn $5.0 bn +16%
Capex $6.5 bn $5.7 bn +14%
Free cash flow -$0.7 bn -$0.7 bn Negative
Long-term debt $38.0 bn $35.6 bn +7%
Core EPS
- 2025: $6.55 (guidance was $6.20-$6.50)
- 2026 guidance: $5.90-$6.20 (-5% to -10%)
- 2027 Guidance: $6.25-$6.65 (+6% to +7%)
- 2028-2030: 5-7% CAGR
Why is 2026 EPS falling?
- CFO Rigatti: "Core EPS is historically not linear."
- High one-off regulatory effects in 2025
- Eaton Fire costs will have a greater impact in 2026
- Higher interest burden due to increased debt
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🔥Wildfire update
Woolsey Fire (2018) - UPDATED
- Q4 2025 Settlement: $1.6bn claim costs + $35m legal
- Status: Approved for reimbursement → positive earnings impact in Q4
- Securitization: $2 bn securitization applied for, completion mid-2026
TKM Settlement (2017/2018) - APPROVED
- 2025 Costs: $1.3 bn claims + $55 m legal
- Status: Approved for reimbursement → net positive
Eaton Fire (January 2025) - THE RISK
- Q4 2025 Costs: Only $15 million booked!
- Claims filed: 2,345 (6,778 people affected)
- Eligible properties: 18,000!
- Payments to date: 71 claims, $15m paid out
- Status: Criminal investigation ongoing
- Problem: Total liability completely unclear
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Dividend - Safe & Attractive
- Quarterly dividend: $0.8775/share
- Annual: $3.51/share
- Yield: ~5% (at $70)
- Paid for 110+ years without interruption
CEO promise: 5% dividend + 5-7% EPS growth = 11-13% total returns