5Mon
Over the past 80 years, the USD (alongside $TLT ) has been considered a crisis currency, i.e. when US equities fell, investors shifted into USD. This has reduced fluctuations for EUR investors. In addition, we have essentially had an appreciating USD since 2009. Most people here only know this period.
That time now seems to be over. Investors are fleeing US equities and the USD. This is new, there are no models and no concepts for this.
So basically, nobody knows how investors should deal with falling US equities, US bonds and USD. That is why gold is the only rising asset at the moment.
Only this much seems clear: a paradigm shift is currently taking place on the markets (dethroning the King Dollar?). In my opinion, this is likely to make many investors poor and a few very rich. In 10 years' time, everything will seem very clear and simple in retrospect. 🤷
That time now seems to be over. Investors are fleeing US equities and the USD. This is new, there are no models and no concepts for this.
So basically, nobody knows how investors should deal with falling US equities, US bonds and USD. That is why gold is the only rising asset at the moment.
Only this much seems clear: a paradigm shift is currently taking place on the markets (dethroning the King Dollar?). In my opinion, this is likely to make many investors poor and a few very rich. In 10 years' time, everything will seem very clear and simple in retrospect. 🤷
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1313
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@Epi
There is simply a lack of confidence in the USA. And the firing of 🍊 against the FED and Powell is taking away the last spark of confidence. The Chinese are driving 🍊 out of bonds. Inflation is driving 🍊 up. And the tariffs are driving 🍊 the economy into a review. Sounds like stagflation, which makes it difficult to cut interest rates. All scenarios that nobody wants.
There is simply a lack of confidence in the USA. And the firing of 🍊 against the FED and Powell is taking away the last spark of confidence. The Chinese are driving 🍊 out of bonds. Inflation is driving 🍊 up. And the tariffs are driving 🍊 the economy into a review. Sounds like stagflation, which makes it difficult to cut interest rates. All scenarios that nobody wants.
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•5Mon
@Tenbagger2024 Unfortunately. But what does this mean for us investors in Germany?
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@Epi
I think the big US companies are very resilient. And in the long term, we will survive the crisis and so will the market
I think the big US companies are very resilient. And in the long term, we will survive the crisis and so will the market
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11
•5Mon
@Tenbagger2024 Well, we're all dead in the long run. 😅
It took DJI 25 years to get back to 1929 levels. MAGA!
It took DJI 25 years to get back to 1929 levels. MAGA!
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@Epi
Stop scaring me 🙈🙈
Stop scaring me 🙈🙈
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5Mon
@Tenbagger2024 Sorry, then ignore the MAGA.
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5Mon
@Tenbagger2024 If you went all-in at the peak of the Great Depression, it actually took 25 years to get back to the initial price.
With monthly DCA over the entire downturn, however, only 16 years 😂🤷
I am very skeptical whether the loss of confidence in the USD will continue consistently if a real crisis in the rest of the world turns out to be much more dramatic than in the US...
Things aren't looking too rosy in Europe, especially when it comes to the demographic problem.
I certainly don't trust the Chinese with anything.
With monthly DCA over the entire downturn, however, only 16 years 😂🤷
I am very skeptical whether the loss of confidence in the USD will continue consistently if a real crisis in the rest of the world turns out to be much more dramatic than in the US...
Things aren't looking too rosy in Europe, especially when it comes to the demographic problem.
I certainly don't trust the Chinese with anything.
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22
•@BigMo
In contrast to the Great Depression, this crisis is handmade and could end quickly.
In contrast to the Great Depression, this crisis is handmade and could end quickly.
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5Mon
@Tenbagger2024
I don't believe in a Great Depression scenario in this form either.
Perhaps there will be a bear market rally in tariff deals.
But I think Trump has pricked the bubble and we still have room to go down...
I don't believe in a Great Depression scenario in this form either.
Perhaps there will be a bear market rally in tariff deals.
But I think Trump has pricked the bubble and we still have room to go down...
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@BigMo
I also think that it has not yet bottomed out. But the lower it falls, the greedier investors become.
I also think that it has not yet bottomed out. But the lower it falls, the greedier investors become.
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