$LCOC (-3.63%) Cocoa prices have been rising massively for a year.

Chocolate manufacturers $HSY (-0.79%) cited this as a problem for margins at the end of the year. Since then, however, the price of cocoa has doubled again.

Will we be seeing Nutella for €10 or will confectionery manufacturers lose a lot of margin because customers are no longer willing or able to pay the further significant price jumps?

I do think that some of the prices can be passed on, but:

1. due to the high inflation in the food sector, prices are already close to the limit

2. chocolate is not a staple food. It could therefore be saved on

3. weight loss hype around Ozempic etc. could lead to fitness and nutrition awareness, especially in America

Perhaps quality will also be compromised (less cocoa content).

It will certainly also depend on how long prices continue to develop at such absurd levels. I myself have insiders in a company that has not yet noticed the increase. Due to long-term supply contracts, we will probably only see the effects in the future.

What other effects do you see and do you perhaps even have ideas (apart from investing directly in the commodity) for profiting from them?