This week, out of my own interest, I've been looking into $CWR (+2.7%) and as I haven't written my own post yet, I'm simply sharing my research and thoughts with you as compactly as possible.
Ceres Power is a British company that is developing a solid oxide technology that can do two things. Firstly, its cells can be used as fuel cells (SOFC) to generate electricity, for example for data centers, industry or buildings. Secondly, the same basic technology can be used as an electrolyzer (SOEC) to produce green hydrogen, for example for hydrogen projects or e-fuels. I find it exciting that Ceres is not building any large factories itself, but is supplying the technology in the background. Partners such as Doosan, Delta, Shell or Weichai take over the actual production. Ceres then earns from license payments and later from volume-based royalties, i.e. a share of the partners' sales.
The "asset-light" model makes the whole thing particularly interesting. In principle, Ceres sells know-how and intellectual property, while the partners bear the majority of the investment and production risk. Despite declining sales, the gross margin in the first half of 2025 was around 79%, which is really high for an industrial company. In 2025, Doosan has launched a factory in South Korea with an annual capacity of around 50 megawatts, where it produces fuel cell systems based on Ceres technology, including for decentralized energy supply and AI data centers. This marks the start of the first phase in which ongoing royalties are not just theoretical, but can actually be incurred. At the same time, a 1-megawatt demonstrator is running in Bangalore (India) with Shell to produce green hydrogen on an industrial scale. This shows that the technology does not just exist on films and in studies, but is already being used in real plants.
Ceres is also very consciously playing the AI card. Data centers for AI applications have an enormous appetite for electricity, and new grid connections or traditional power plant projects often take years. The idea is to set up container solutions with Ceres-based SOFC systems relatively quickly, which supply base load around the clock and thus relieve the grid. If large data center operators use this on a large scale, Ceres is automatically attached to each additional system via its licensing model.
On the other hand, the risks are clearly visible. In the first half of 2025, revenue fell from around 28.5 million pounds to 21.1 million pounds, a drop of around 26 percent. The background to this is that large one-off license deals, for example with Delta, were still included in the figures in 2024, which are now no longer applicable, while the volume-based royalties are only slowly starting up. Ceres continues to make significant operating losses. On the positive side, the company has around 104 million pounds in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet, which gives it some buffer for this transition phase. Nevertheless, Ceres remains heavily dependent on its partners. Whether the story works out will ultimately depend on how quickly Doosan, Delta, Weichai and others ramp up their factories and whether their customers really demand the technology in large numbers.
A lot has also happened to the share price recently. In euros, the 52-week range is roughly between 0.51 and 4.98 euros, which is an enormous bandwidth. The share price has multiplied in recent months. A significant boost came recently after Ceres agreed a new production license deal with Weichai for solid oxide fuel cells in China, with a focus on powering AI data centers, among other things. The share is currently running pretty hot, and large swings in either direction are possible at any time.
The bottom line for me is that Ceres Power is a speculative bet on two major trends. Firstly, the hunger for electricity in AI data centers and secondly, the expansion of green hydrogen. The technology looks exciting, the partners are well-known, and the business model could become very attractive if successful due to the high margins and royalties. On the other hand, there are lowered sales forecasts, continued red figures, high dependency on partners and an extremely volatile share, which probably already contains a lot of fantasy. For me personally, Ceres would only be a small, speculative addition or a watchlist candidate, certainly not a calm underlying for a relaxed long-term portfolio.
What interests me now is your view. What do you think $CWR (+2.7%)? Have any of you been invested for some time and been able to take advantage of the recent price gains or is this more of a pure gamble for you that you would rather just watch? Have a nice weekend!
