Hey, @Keineui!
Before you blindly copy and paste Naspers’ glossy PR brochure here and let yourself be completely lulled by the trendy “Agentic AI” marketing jargon, let’s briefly lay out the cold, hard facts.
It’s all well and good that the CEO is raving about smart ecosystems, but at the end of the day, what counts on the stock market are the raw numbers and the company’s structure.
Here’s the brutal reality check for your African “wonder company”:
### 1. Fact-checking: What’s true in your post
Credit where credit is due—the figures you cited from the FY26 report are absolutely correct:
* **Growth:**
The ecosystem revenue growth of 53% to $9.7 billion and the 84% jump in aEBITDA to $1.3 billion are exactly as stated in the books.
* **AI Potential:**
The rollout of the ToqanClaw AI platform to over 5 million restaurant partners is also factually verifiable.
* **Market Position:**
Naspers is definitely one of the largest and most valuable companies on the African continent.
### 2. The Elephant in the Room: What You’re Completely Ignoring
You’re talking about Africa and AI, but in reality, you’re buying something completely different here.
At its core, Naspers is a gigantic **Tencent proxy**.
The company’s value is heavily dictated by its indirect stake of approximately 26.16% (via its subsidiary Prosus) in the Chinese tech giant Tencent. So you’re not primarily adding the African boom to your portfolio—you’re taking on the full brunt of the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as Beijing’s regulatory risks.
In addition, the company suffers from a virtually chronic **holding discount**. Although management is burning through billions on share buybacks to reduce this discount to net asset value (NAV), the market stubbornly refuses to value the company fairly.
### 3. The Chart: A Bloody Tragedy
If you look at the attached weekly chart, you should actually run away screaming. This isn’t an investment—it’s a textbook example of a falling knife:
* **Performance:**
The stock has lost a brutal 33.8% in value year-to-date.
* **Trend:**
The price is sliding mercilessly and is currently hovering at its 52-week low of around 746 ZAR.
* **Indicators:**
All technical warning lights are flashing deep red. The MACD is plummeting unchecked, and the moving averages signal a massive downtrend. In the Pro Research Report, the technical indicators are consequently set to “Strong Sell.”
### 4. The Fundamental Valuation Trap
* **Seemingly Cheap:**
A P/E ratio of 7.15 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.53 look tempting at first glance.
* **The Catch:**
Analysts are forecasting a decline in net income for the current year. In addition, the challenging macroeconomic environment in South Africa (energy crisis, political instability) and high investment costs in e-commerce subsidiaries are weighing on short-term earnings.
### My takeaway for you
Don’t let flowery CEO quotes about “AI-powered lifestyle ecosystems” blind you! Naspers ($NPN) is a highly complex holding company that’s completely at the mercy of China and is in extremely poor technical shape.
If you absolutely must have exposure to African e-commerce and Tencent, you can add this stock to your watchlist. But opening a position blindly right now, while the chart looks like a ski slope and selling pressure persists, is pure harakiri. For heaven’s sake, wait until a reliable technical bottom has formed!
Before you blindly copy and paste Naspers’ glossy PR brochure here and let yourself be completely lulled by the trendy “Agentic AI” marketing jargon, let’s briefly lay out the cold, hard facts.
It’s all well and good that the CEO is raving about smart ecosystems, but at the end of the day, what counts on the stock market are the raw numbers and the company’s structure.
Here’s the brutal reality check for your African “wonder company”:
### 1. Fact-checking: What’s true in your post
Credit where credit is due—the figures you cited from the FY26 report are absolutely correct:
* **Growth:**
The ecosystem revenue growth of 53% to $9.7 billion and the 84% jump in aEBITDA to $1.3 billion are exactly as stated in the books.
* **AI Potential:**
The rollout of the ToqanClaw AI platform to over 5 million restaurant partners is also factually verifiable.
* **Market Position:**
Naspers is definitely one of the largest and most valuable companies on the African continent.
### 2. The Elephant in the Room: What You’re Completely Ignoring
You’re talking about Africa and AI, but in reality, you’re buying something completely different here.
At its core, Naspers is a gigantic **Tencent proxy**.
The company’s value is heavily dictated by its indirect stake of approximately 26.16% (via its subsidiary Prosus) in the Chinese tech giant Tencent. So you’re not primarily adding the African boom to your portfolio—you’re taking on the full brunt of the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as Beijing’s regulatory risks.
In addition, the company suffers from a virtually chronic **holding discount**. Although management is burning through billions on share buybacks to reduce this discount to net asset value (NAV), the market stubbornly refuses to value the company fairly.
### 3. The Chart: A Bloody Tragedy
If you look at the attached weekly chart, you should actually run away screaming. This isn’t an investment—it’s a textbook example of a falling knife:
* **Performance:**
The stock has lost a brutal 33.8% in value year-to-date.
* **Trend:**
The price is sliding mercilessly and is currently hovering at its 52-week low of around 746 ZAR.
* **Indicators:**
All technical warning lights are flashing deep red. The MACD is plummeting unchecked, and the moving averages signal a massive downtrend. In the Pro Research Report, the technical indicators are consequently set to “Strong Sell.”
### 4. The Fundamental Valuation Trap
* **Seemingly Cheap:**
A P/E ratio of 7.15 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.53 look tempting at first glance.
* **The Catch:**
Analysts are forecasting a decline in net income for the current year. In addition, the challenging macroeconomic environment in South Africa (energy crisis, political instability) and high investment costs in e-commerce subsidiaries are weighing on short-term earnings.
### My takeaway for you
Don’t let flowery CEO quotes about “AI-powered lifestyle ecosystems” blind you! Naspers ($NPN) is a highly complex holding company that’s completely at the mercy of China and is in extremely poor technical shape.
If you absolutely must have exposure to African e-commerce and Tencent, you can add this stock to your watchlist. But opening a position blindly right now, while the chart looks like a ski slope and selling pressure persists, is pure harakiri. For heaven’s sake, wait until a reliable technical bottom has formed!
•
44
•
@Raketentoni Yeah, I wouldn't just jump in blindly anyway. Thanks for the comment. But I'll add it to my watch list and see where the bottom is. Personally, I think around 30 € would be an interesting entry point.
•
11
•