For years, Cellnex was one of those companies that always seemed to live one step ahead of the market. It was growing fast, integrating assets relentlessly and expanding its European footprint with an ease that bordered on the automatic. It was a story of constant expansion, almost never pausing to look in the rearview mirror. And as is often the case, the market was willing to pay for that ambition... until it wasn't anymore.
The change in the monetary cycle altered everything. The cost of capital went from being a detail to becoming the central focus of analysis, and a model based on debt and future growth began to generate more doubts than enthusiasm. The stock market correction was not so much a surprise as a wake-up call: the business was still good, but the context had changed completely.
Today Cellnex moves in a different terrain. Much less noisy, perhaps more uncomfortable, but also more coherent. The priority is no longer to add towers, but to put the house in order. Selective divestments, capex containment and a clear focus on strengthening cash generation mark a stage that the market is often slow to appreciate, but which is essential to regain financial credibility.
From an operational point of view, few things have changed fundamentally. The structural demand for connectivity is still there, long-term contracts provide visibility, and indexation to inflation continues to work in our favor. It's not a brilliant headline business, but it is remarkably predictable when you look at it calmly. And in infrastructure, predictability is often an underrated virtue.
I have taken a position recently precisely because of that. Not because I expect an immediate turnaround in the share price, but because I believe that in two to three years' time the market will tend to recognize what it is now discounting with excessive skepticism. If the company fulfills its roadmap - debt reduction, progressive improvement in cash flow and operational stability - the story can go from defensive to constructive almost without anyone noticing.
Cellnex no longer needs to prove it knows how to grow. It has already done that. Now it needs to demonstrate that it knows how to capitalize on what it already has. And that transition, less showy but more solid, is what makes me think that the value of the company in a few years may be significantly higher than what the market reflects today. It is not a bet on adrenaline, but on patience. And at this point in the cycle, that nuance changes everything.
