4Wk
Is there a reason why you chose the distribution exactly as you did? It seems a bit thrown together to me. Gold in particular can prevent drawdowns with an appropriate portfolio share, but at 3% it certainly shouldn't make a big difference in the portfolio and even if it has done well recently, gold is not necessarily a growth factor, so I don't necessarily understand the addition in this ratio. (Perhaps @Epi can also write something about this. I think he once published a great article in which he analyzed empirical data to determine the optimal proportion of gold in order to prevent major drawdowns, for example).
Otherwise, I would run some backtests on the portfolio, you may be able to optimize your distribution.
Otherwise, I would run some backtests on the portfolio, you may be able to optimize your distribution.
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4Wk
@TheStoic Hi, there is indeed a reason. I tried to show it in the second picture. 60% core and (30+10) with the satellites. Whereby 30% was allocated to equity ETFs and the rest in currencies. I found it conclusive for me. Perhaps you can better understand my idea behind it if you take a look at the Excel image.
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4Wk
@Bidax I would agree with @TheStoic, the weightings still seem a bit random. What criterion did you use to weight 60-30-10? Max Sharpe ratio? Min Max Drawdown? Min Vola? Max gut feeling?
Your table is an important first step towards a backtest. But it is still incomplete and should go back at least to 2007 so that you can see how your allocation performs in a crisis. And what conclusions do you draw from the table? Tip: give the table to ChatGPT and ask him about the optimal weighting of the asset classes - you'll be surprised how he approaches it and what comes out! 😁👍
Your table is an important first step towards a backtest. But it is still incomplete and should go back at least to 2007 so that you can see how your allocation performs in a crisis. And what conclusions do you draw from the table? Tip: give the table to ChatGPT and ask him about the optimal weighting of the asset classes - you'll be surprised how he approaches it and what comes out! 😁👍
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•4Wk
@Epi How do I do that? Give ChatGPT the table? Serious question 🫣
Edit: GIDF... got it
Sorry
Edit: GIDF... got it
Sorry
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4Wk
@Epi I'll do it. Thank you. But I'm really starting to despair, because I was really sure that I had put my brain into the whole thing.
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1Wk
@Epi I have spent the last few days creating a data source for the AI, because the free versions are not always willing to organize historical data themselves. I have therefore compiled the historical closing prices of each of my ETFs for the maximum period in an Excel spreadsheet. Further filled with volatility figures, shape ratio, max drawdown, Morningstar rating figures, TER, yield p.a. and distribution yield as well as distribution growth. In addition to the weighting and correlation matrix, I had a historical backtest (2010-2023) and stress test hyperinflation, tech bubble (70% drawdown as in 2000), recession + deflation (EU and US GDP -3%), sensitivity analysis and finally a risk matrix drawn up. Finally, I had statements made on the subject of dynamic rebalancing, liquidity buffers, tax optimization and inflation monitoring. I ran all this through 3 AIs (ChatGPT, Deepseek and Claude AI), analyzed the results again myself and implemented them in an "average model" as the final implementation. I selected each of my chosen ETFs as far as I could by means of endless comparisons, ratings and developments of the index depicted. I then had the whole thing checked and validated again using Morningstar Sustainability Score, BlackRock Aladdin simulation and the DWS risk model. Even in the Black Swan scenario (tech crash + inflation +10%), the drawdown remains under
drawdown remains below 22%.
What I am trying to say: I have gone to extreme lengths to make the result not "gut feeling" but sound and verified.
Of course I made the decision to invest in MSCI World, S&P500, S&P Utilities, EU, EM, bonds and gold. But good. That is the decision of my thoughts. It's not too bad as I could always adjust it.
Maybe I'll present it here, but I honestly don't dare because someone will find something that doesn't fit anyway.
70/30 ... fire away 🚀
I just wanted to leave this as feedback for you @Epi, @TheStoic, @Mister_ultra, @VPT and you @DonkeyInvestor.
Have a good time and may the force be with us 🤙🏻
drawdown remains below 22%.
What I am trying to say: I have gone to extreme lengths to make the result not "gut feeling" but sound and verified.
Of course I made the decision to invest in MSCI World, S&P500, S&P Utilities, EU, EM, bonds and gold. But good. That is the decision of my thoughts. It's not too bad as I could always adjust it.
Maybe I'll present it here, but I honestly don't dare because someone will find something that doesn't fit anyway.
70/30 ... fire away 🚀
I just wanted to leave this as feedback for you @Epi, @TheStoic, @Mister_ultra, @VPT and you @DonkeyInvestor.
Have a good time and may the force be with us 🤙🏻
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@Bidax super elaborate. I just did what all the guys on the internet said and added something that felt good to me 😅
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•1Wk
@DonkeyInvestor also a solution 🤣
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