2Mon·

Gas market?

With my second purchase, I asked myself who could benefit most from a prolonged conflict with further rising prices for gas and LNG. As there are enough of these in the USA and Canada, which also have no transport restrictions, my choice fell on a rather unknown stock here with $VET (+0.09%) .

07.03

Vermilion Energy

Bought at $11.25

22 Comments

TheRealRichi@Badehose

2Mon

Did you have a look at $LNG in the course of this?

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Chris@Multibagger

2Mon

@Badehose no, as I tend to look for small caps

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Olli@Olli68

2Mon

Uiii... interessant 👍

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Epi@Epi

2Mon

I share your basic idea. But I think I'm a bit more conservative with $3NGL. Eliminates the business risk. 😏

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Chris@Multibagger

2Mon

@Epi It caught me on the wrong foot twice. So now I thought I'd try something else.

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Epi@Epi

2Mon

@Multibagger Yes, it's not easy to trade. After all, it also increases storage costs. Quick in and out is the motto. 👍

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Chris@Multibagger

2Mon

@Epi Yes, I realized that too late. But you learn from your mistakes.

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jkb92@jkb92

2Mon

Do you really think the war of aggression (calling a spade a spade) will last any longer? I think DT will want to avoid it for various reasons. Majority in America sees a (prolonged) war as wrong/unnecessary and if energy prices and thus inflation rises in the midterm year...

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Chris@Multibagger

2Mon

@jkb92 The US government has requested additional staff for the staff units responsible for coordination and planning until September. The USA is not so affected by the higher energy prices. They produce enough themselves. But they are hitting China hard. 80% of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to China. Putin will also stop gas supplies to Europe.

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Olli@Olli68

2Mon

@jkb92 And how will he avoid this without completely losing the entire region to China?

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jkb92@jkb92

2Mon

@Olli68 Well, I'm curious to see how long China will put up with this. Fortunately, even the USA can't afford to completely alienate China (keyword: rare earths and electronics).

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Olli@Olli68

2Mon

@jkb92 The ships going to China will not be attacked. Sooner or later, the USA's partners (South Korea, Japan, etc.) will have to move closer to China so that they can be supplied without being attacked.
The Gulf states continue to sell to China; the USA and its allies are increasingly falling behind in the region.
If the US wants to prevent this, it will have to stay there for a very long time and complete its objectives. If it withdraws immediately, it will always remain the bad guy and the loser in the region vis-à-vis China.

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jkb92@jkb92

2Mon

@Olli68 I could live with the result. I don't think there's a nation in the world that has done more damage there than the USA.

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Seventrader@7Trader

2Mon

I remain bullish on $CHK Expand Energy 💯💪🏽

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Chris@Multibagger

2Mon

@7Trader have not benefited, contrary to your assumption from 7 months ago

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Seventrader@7Trader

2Mon

@Multibagger Yes, that's totally true. It's been a no-go so far. Nevertheless, I'm sticking with it. Expand is currently by far the largest natural gas producer in the USA, as well as the leading main supplier for LNG terminals. In the meantime, they are already concluding direct LNG contracts with international buyers.
I just have to wait patiently until the cash register rings 🤑🤞🏼

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mkaps@mkaps

2Mon

What about $UKW ?

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Chris@Multibagger

2Mon

@mkaps I can't say anything about that, I've never dealt with it.

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Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH

2Mon

When @Epi introduced its Zock ($3NGL), I was hooked. But all I read was a glut of LNG. Due to supply increases from Qatar and the USA, there is an expected oversupply. Will the war affect this for a long time? Difficult.

I'm staying on the sidelines.

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Epi@Epi

2Mon

@Gehebeltes-EFH The idea behind the gamble was that all the things you mentioned are already priced in and that upside surprises are now possible.

The idea is that if LNG from the Middle East fails, demand for LNG from the USA could rise in the short term. The LNG price in Europe has risen by almost 50% in the last few days, which should also influence the Henry Hub.
Let's see if that works. 🤷

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Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH

2Mon

@Epi Start of war, Qatar stops LNG production, Russ. LNG tank destroyed off Malta. All the news has only led to mini-movements. Let's see.

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Epi@Epi

2Mon

@Gehebeltes-EFH I am betting on a tipping point here. Once the panic sets in, then 100% is quickly possible. If not, then a 15% SL loss. 🤷

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